FORECASTING SEASONS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LVIII, Issue 17872, 29 August 1921, Page 7

FORECASTING SEASONS.

CONDITIONS IN BRITAIN.

MR. BATES REVIEWS RECORDS

NO GUIDANCE FOR DOMINION.

A contribution to vise discussion whether it is possible to forecast the weather for a coming season, is made by Mr. D. C. Bates, director of the Government meteorological office, in a communication lately addressed to Mr. William Gaw, of Auckland. The writer stated that ho had examined the records of British rainfall since 1903, to compare tho results with the season's rainfall following in Auckland. His reason was that the subject was alarming the farmers in the province, who, he understood, had been told that the recent drought in England presaged a drought in this country. Mr. Bates said that the months of Mav, June, July, and August in England corresponded to November, December, January, and February in this Dominion. In tho 17 years he had examined only in 1914 did the conditions in the "four months correspond with those in the four summer months in England. Taking the months seriatim, May corresponded with November 10 times, but differed seven times; Juno corresponded with December also 10 times, but differed seven times; July corresponded with January eight times, but differed nine times; August also corresponded with Februarv eicht times, but differed nine times. These "results showed a correspondence in 36 instances, and a difference in 32. Commenting cm the figures, Mr. Bates said that if two men were to play pitch and toss they would apparently have about as much chance, of two heads corresponding, or two tails, a s two wet months, or two dry ones, corresponding or differing in the above instance*. This, he thought, clearly showed that there was no cause for alarm as to the drought m England being repeated in the Dominion. In his opinion, no reliance could bo placed upon sun-spot or cycle theories for forecast for tho coming season.