THE WHEAT OUTLOOK.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LVI, Issue 17329, 28 November 1919, Page 6

THE WHEAT OUTLOOK.

The policy laid down by the Prime Minister in regard to the production of wheat in New Zealand involves the acceptance by the Government of a grave responsibility, but the task must be faced. Mr. Massey has expressed the opinion that measures should be adopted that will ensure a full supply by domestic production and has proposed a conference of the interests concerned to devise guarantees against future deficiency. The importance of thus establishing an independence in this vital matter •needs little emphasis. There is a world-wide shortage of wheat, immediately aggravated by the drought in Australia and the partial failure of the American harvest, and likely to be indefinitely prolonged by the stagnation of all industry in Russia. Prices are consequently enormously inflated, and even if there were a surplus in the nearest market it is manifest that Australian wheat will be far dearer than during the past few years. On the other hand, the production of wheat in New Zealand is declining. It is estimated that at least 7,000,000 bushels are consumed annually, and with an increasing population and the development' of the poultry and other industries the consumption will become greater. The harvest of 1910-11 yielded 8,290,221 bushels, and that of 1911-12 was 7,261,138 bushels, but in 1912-ir only 5,179,626 bushels and in 1913-14 only 5,231,700 bushels were produced. Considerable importations were therefore necessary, supplementary supplies being obtained from Australia and Canada, including a large quantity imported by the Government. The production during the war years is shown in the following table :— »

Average Total Acres. iSushets. Bußheis. ! 1914-15 .. 229,6110 26.94 6,644,336 1915-16 . . 3:i9.2U7 21.59 l.ihS.iM ! 1916-17 .. 217,713 23.19 6.06i,r*7 1917-18 . . 28U.97S 24.23 6.8U7.536 1918-19 . . 2ub,030 31.57 b.w.Oia iln 1915-16 the area devoted to ; wheat-growing was larger than in 1910-11, but there has since been a rapid reduction, balanced last season to some extent by the exceptionally high yield per acre. The latest official estimate of the area reserved for wheat this season shows a total of only 142,960 acres, which is the lowest since* 1876, and even with as high a yield as that of the last harvest would produce only 4,500,000 bushels. Wheat was imported by the Government in 1914 and 1915, and sold at a loss ; further purchases were made of 1,500,000 bushels in Australia in 1917, on which a' loss of £6690 was sustained, and of 4,000,000 bushels last year, for delivery at the rate of 1,000,000 bushels every six months. So far the efforts to provide sufficient wheat and to maintain the cheap loaf have been successful, but they have involved considerable cost to the State in the loss the amount of which i s not fully known—on imported supplies, and in the subsidising of flour, which is estimated to cost £213,000 a year. At the same time efforts have been made to encourage wheat-growing in the Dominion, but the fact must be recognised that the wheat lands can be more profitably used for the pro- ' duction of mutton and butter than of j wheat at prices corresponding with ; the present price of bread. The solu- : tion of tho difficulty has not vet been I discovered. It cannot at present be ! found in plans for importations, nor j can the subsidising of producers or ! millers be regarded as an acceptable i permanent remedy. The only refuge ' from the predicament which now ; faces the Dominion is a policy of self- ; reliance. Since there is little pros- ! pect of private enterprise meeting ' the country's needs, there seems to I be a clear call for legitimate State ' enterprise—that the Government itself should undertake the growing of sufficient wheat at least until conditions are favourable for its withdrawal from this activity. Such an undertaking presents great difficulties, but a bold and vigorous Government .should be able to overcome them.