THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. SATURDAY, AUGUST 9, 1919. FARMERS' PROSPECTS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LVI, Issue 17234, 9 August 1919, Page 8

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. SATURDAY, AUGUST 9, 1919. FARMERS' PROSPECTS.

The note of cautious optimism sounded by Mr., H. Buckiefcon,'"? general manager of the Bank of New Zealand, in reviewing the trade outlook of the Dominion, is one that is thoroughly warranted. Mr. Buckleton foresees a continuance of the present high level of prosperity for a year. This prospect is practically guaranteed by the contracts entered into with the Imperial Government for the disposal of our staple products. Beyond this period the outlook is necessarily far less certain, bat Mr. Buckleton ventured to predict that for another two years times would continue to be '< good. This opinion is probably based upon the assumption that a considerable interval must elapse before the supply .and consumption of food reach ' their pre-war ratio. One might go ' farther and say that a fair 1 level of prices . is certain for j many years; indeed* as far as ' can be foreseen, agriculture has as- ' sumedan economically sound basis, ■] from which it will never be dis- - placed. To support this conclusion, ] it is not necessary -to accept unre- ' servedly the theories of such scient- ] ists as Sir William Crookes and Sir • E. Ray Lankester, who anticipate a \ time when the food needs of the world will exceed the supplies that J can be grown on all cultivated land. ' It is sufficient for practical 'purposes ! to consider the present ratio be- ' tween production and consumption. ' The war is over» blockades have i been lifted, commerce is free once I more, but Europe is hungry. The * bare necessaries of life are so scarce '> that were it not for the relief furn- * ished by the United Stages, and to ■ a. lesser degree by Britain, there : would be imminent danger of Euro- ' pean civilisation succumbing to I famine. Nowhere east of the Rhine i is food plentiful or even sufficient. Of all the agonies of Russia, the greatest is starvation. Germany is aow dependent on outside supplies, md as this summer's harvest will be 1 fully 50 per centr below the pre-war - average, she must continue to im- ' port heavily for at least another ! rear. Austria and Hungary are in i 10 better circumstances. Poland is i In great need of food, and South- { jastern Europe generally is being 1 •ationed by the Allies. Even the victorious nations are. suffering 1 severely. In Belgium, Northern l France, and Servia, great territories * vhich produced food have been so i 'avaged that they will be brought i nto cultivation with difficulty.' It * sill be many years before the bal- i mce between production and con- i sumption is restored in Europe. i Fortunately for the world, at large, a i very substantial measure of relief t nay be expected almost immedi- f itely from the wheat-producing 8 countries. Cereals have been accu- t nulating in the more distant states, c particularly in Australia, during the t war, and these are now available to t t-he extent to which shipping can be c spared to carry them. It has been t calculated that at the beginning of i this month the exporting countries e would still hold a surplus of f 3,500,000 tons of old wheat, enough r bo meet the normal demand of all t the importing countries for six 1 months, and a much,, larger carry- i over than the world ever possessed c on the corresponding date in time of t peace. All countries have made 1 great efforts to increase their sow- f ings, and it appears certain that the f harvest which is now ripening in the c northern hemisphere will be larger i than the world's consumption dur- c mg 1919-20 so that in twelve months < there will be a still larger carry-over '

of • • exportable surplus. -; > Indeed, ,so assured is the prospect of cheap wheat that it is already producing a crisis in British agriculture.. However admirable the policy of the plough may be from the point of view of the State, it is useless to expect British farmers to continue growing wheat at a loss, and they are Naturally asking what prices j they will receive in two, three, or four years' time. The Corn Produc- \ tion Act guarantees 55s a quarter 1 for wheat this year and 45s next year, and the Act comes to an end, in • 1922. The Government has increased the current guarantee to 75s 6d a quarter, but it has not enunciated its policy any further ahead, and consequently the British farmer, faced with substantial increases in the cost of labour, is already showing an inclination to abandon wheatgrowing, and put his land down in grass. It is not to be inferred from these circumstances that wheat-growing will not remain profitable for countries which are naturally adapted for large-scale production, but it does appear probable that wheatgrowing will revert to normal conditions more quickly than other branches of agriculture. For those in which New Zealand is primarily interested, the prospects are particularly good. Meat will become increasingly a luxury. The war has tended to deplete flocks and herds everywhere, and it has vastly stimulated the taste for meat. The British market will be as good as ever, and there is a possibility of a demand setting in from the Continent, provided Europe is able to afford to eat meat. Butter is also likely to be in short supply. Enough is now being distributed in Britain to provide a weekly ration of two ounces a head. Government contracts have been made with New Zealand and Australia for the purchase of the surplus up to the middle of next year, and arrangements have been made for taking over the exports of the Argentine and Ireland. Supplies are also being sought in Denmark, Holland, Canada, the United States, and Siberia. Despite all these precautions, the British consumer must still submit to rationing, and there is no prospect of a reduction of the retail price of 2s 6d a pound. The fact is, that there is a world shortage of butter, as there is of bacon, lard, and many other foodstuffs. There is nothing New Zealand can produce that will not find a ready market now, and at jail times, whether it be mutton, butter, cheese, or fruit. Our single problem is to expand our pfimary industries. A hungry world will gladly pay us in goods or gold for every additional ton of food, and its appetite will place no limit on our exports.