THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 1915. GERMAN AID FOR TURKEY.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LII, Issue 16025, 17 September 1915, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 1915. GERMAN AID FOR TURKEY.

Underneath the contradictory reports as to the intentions of Germany in the Balkans is the undeniable fact that, unless aid is very speedily sent to Turkey, the Dardanelles will be forced and Constantinople will fall. For Germany to permit this would be fatal to her prestige in the Near East and we must therefore assume that some movement is in preparation having for its purpose the relief of beset Gallipoli. Boumania has steadily resisted all German attempts to secure by threats a passage for munitions, which passage cannot be forced unless Berlin is prepared to add the fine Roumanian army to the Alliance. It is therefore probable that a renewed invasion of Servia will be made in order to open a road to Turkey via Bulgaria and that the Balkan Peninsula will soon become the scene of military operations of considerable magnitude. By right the task of dealing with Servia is part of Austria's compact with her unscrupulous ally, but at no time during the war has Austria been sufficiently strong to place in the field forces adequate for the subjugation of Servia and at the same time to provide the necessary troops to fight the Russians and the Italians. She is now reported to be able to maintain only four army corps on the Serbo-Roumanian frontiers; hence the necessity of German intervention in the Balkans if Turkey is to be relieved.

It is difficult to estimate the present military strength of Servia, but it would appear that her heroic army is more than able to contend with any force which Austria alone could send against her. Possibly she can place in the field a quarter-of-a-mil-lion troops fully equipped, with auxiliary forces which would be sufficient to allow her to maintain that army in the field in full strength for a considerable period. Important artillery units have been sent from Britain, .France and Russia, reaching Servia by way of Montenegro. There is no reason why she should not receive through the same channel reinforcements sufficiently strong to enable her to offer a stubborn resistance to any Austro-German army with which she may have to contend. Italy, whose geographical position allows her to help Servia more easily than could France or Britain, happily possesses surplus troops after all requirements on her northern border have been satisfied, and may use them in such a manner as to prevent the Austro-German armies from joining hands with the Turks. The devious course followed by Bulgaria seems to have led her at last almost into the camp of the enemy. For certain territorial concessions received from Turkey she will undertake to allow German succours to traverse her territory. Protesting her neutrality, she is becoming the passive tool of Germany. If she will not strike a blow for the Teutons, at least she will not strike a blow against them. Moreover, her interference in the war, on Germany's side, would certainly bring Greece and probably Roumania into the field for the Allies. If Bulgaria thus sits still, to the benefit of Germany, it is possible that the conflagratio-i may not spread to the other Balkan States at present neutral, and the issue may be decided merely between the Austro-Germans and gallant Servia, the latter aided by such troops as the Allies may be able to introduce. The object of the Austro-German armies is evidently to force their way across the Danube and through Sema to Bulgaria. To decisively

defeat the Servian forces they will certainly make great sacrifices. Possibly their plan of campaign will be to Attack Servia once more from Bosnia, with a view to drawing the Servian armies towards the western confines of their country, while in reality the main German attack will be made by crossing the Danube somewhere near Semendria or Gradiste with a view to striking at the Servians' lines of communication and of opening a way to Bulgarian territory. With Servia decisively defeated, the Germans would make use of the Belgrade-Nish-Sofia railway ; with the Servian army still active in the field, they would have to be content with the lesser object of establishing communication by road between Hungary and Bulgaria by way of the mountainous country in the north-east of Servia. The problem presents many strategical difficulties to an invader, and there is good reason to hope that the Servians will be able to make good their defence. They fought magnificently at Valievo, when they signally defeated their foes, and no doubt will fight equally well when once more their liberties are in peril. Whatever the attitude which has been adopted by Bulgaria in reference to the position, Roumania and Greece will view the threatened domination of the Balkans by the Germans vita the utmost alarm. However it is regarded the situation discloses good reason for optimism. In any case there is little time at Germany's disposal, for at any time we may hear that Gallipoli has passed into our hands, which would finally settle the question of the Dardanelles.