THE New Zealand Herald. AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. MONDAY, JANUARY 18, 1915. ITALY AND ROUMANIA.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LII, Issue 15820, 18 January 1915, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald. AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. MONDAY, JANUARY 18, 1915. ITALY AND ROUMANIA.

The very general expectation that Italy and Roumania would join the Great Alliance in the spring of 1915 does not diminish as time passes. Both nations have been strenuously placing themselves upon a war footing, with large expenditure of money and heavy mustering of men, while Italy last week forbade subjects of military age to leave the country prohibition which is a most significant indication of intended action. As far as Roumania is concerned, there is growing reason to think that she may not wait until the actual spring to declare war against Austria and march her troops into Transylvania, for her popular feeling is being passionately excited and her cautious diplomacy encouraged by the close proximity of the Russian armies, which have already driven shattered Austrian regiments across the Roumanian frontier. The direct and indirect motives which are moving so many Continental peoples against the Dual Alliance cannot be dissociated. Austria has long dominated a remarkable group of varied nationalities, whose national aspirations for self-government and self-expression have recently risen to fever heat, while Germany—without Austria's old justification that in the Balkans she replaced Moslem tyranny and anarchy by far better administration —has shown herself to be the sworn enemy of national liberties. Britain, by her refusal to watch unmoved the German attack upon Belgium, Russia by her championship of Servia and her pledge to the Poles, j 'and France by her claims to "lost! provinces," have won the goodwill of the incomplete" and subordinated nationalities, whose sympathies are in certain cases brought into practical politics by the fact that active co-operation with these friendly Powers gives them a comparatively safe opportunity of attaining national completeness. Denmark would be similarly moved were not unconquered German hosts close to her doors and the fate of Belgium before her eyes. Italy is too strong to fear a failing Austria, and Roumania has now a victorious Russian army at her elbow.

The prompt bringing of the Roumanian Army to the aid of the Allies is becoming daily more likely, because it should now be able to over-run Transylvania with ease, and thus to bring liberty and independence to the kindred people of that Austrian province. Under the universal training system which makes almost all Continental states * serious factors in great international conflict, Roumania is credited by the latest authorities with a wararmy of 700,000, and it is probable that half a million men is well within her power. With these the rout of the Austrians in the eastern provinces might well be completed, particularly as a Roumanian rising in Transylvania, certain to follow the progress of Roumanian arms, would greatly assist in disintegrating the already-crumbling fabric of tho Austrian Empire. Irremediable disintegration is said to be so feared in Vienna as to account for recent ministerial changes in the Foreign Office of that capital. Bulgaria was compelled by Roumania to make some territorial concessions after the last Balkan War, and has been thought not too kindly disposed to her Danubian neighbour in consequence. It is freely stated, however, that this disagreement has been arranged. As matters stand, Roumania has much to gain and little to lose by joining forces with Russia, and no moral or political objection can be raised against re-

warding her for timely assistance by transferring to her democracy the willing Roumanian population of Transylvania.

The motives of Italy are even more .complicated than those of Roumania, for while enthusiastically " national" and eager to recover the " unredeemed Italy" still held under Austrian rule she has place among the great states of Europe and is deeply interested in maintaining the balanco of power which Germany has set out to destroy. The London Times, some months ago, expressed the opinion that Italy would do " the right thing at the right time" and few now doubt that the Government at Rome is steadily preparing for an armed intervention, which will either compel Austria to make peace at any price and thus allow the Russians to concentrate against Germany or will necessitate the withdrawal of numerous AustroGerman army corps from the eastern and western lines to withstand Italian pressure between Switzerland and Montenegro. Latest estimates place the war-strength of Italy at 2,000,000 men, and though this may be very liberal and may be the number Italy can call upon in an extreme emergency, it is evident that a very large army which has been carefully prepared for the field can be thrown into the scales. It is not improbable that the large new army of combined Germans and Austrians, J | said to be gathering for a renewed invasion of Servia, may be intended for service against Italy. At least half-a-million men must be employed by Austria and Germany on the Italian frontier should the anticipated -intervention take place, which means that there will be half-a-million fewer enemies to be dealt with by the rest of the Allies —including our own New Zealanders- The entrance of Italy and Roumania actually places upon the Dual Alliance the burden of defending a greatly extended battle-line against serious attack, and it is not inconceivable that this line may be even further extended in the spring by Allied operations in the north. German military writers have generally taken it for granted that if Britain were able to undertake military operations against Germany, the British attack would be made, by way of "upon the Kiel Canal. If this plan were adopted in the spring, the value of Italian and Roumanian co-operation in the south and east would very speedily be .apparent.