SECRET WAR HISTORY.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LI, Issue 15748, 24 October 1914, Page 4 (Supplement)

SECRET WAR HISTORY.

GERMANY'S CALCULATION.

From Berlin a remarkable piece of secret war history has reached Rotter dam. It comes from a trusted correspondent of the Nieuwe Rott«rdarasche Courant, who received it, he says, from an excellent authority. Having carefully examined the information given him, he has come to the conclusion that the military party in Berlin reckoned they were perfectly safe in urging the Austrian Government to take strong measures against Servia. They believed the Powers of the Triple Entente would not be ready to challenge Germany till the early part of tho year 1916. With great impartiality this correspondent considers that Russia also entered on a game of bluff, thinking that the German Emperor would not consent to war being declared. It should be added that this correspondent states he is convinced the matters he relates were not actually what led to the war, but they are an interesting phase in which England played no —she was not among the unready whose weaknesses were counted upon to keep them quiet till Austria and Germany had wrought their will upon Servia. Here is the description of a Crown Council, held at Potsdam on July 5. To this council the Austrian Government ' confided its intention of sending a strong punitive force to Servia, the opinion in Vienna being that any other course would be intolerable. Austria, therefore, asked whether she could reckon on the assistance of Germany if Russia should help Servia. The military men in the Crown Council recommended decided action in the matter. The Emperor and nis civil councillors were, as ever, strongly against everything which might lead to war. But they were also of opinion that something had to be done against Servia. in the end it was resolved to give Austria the assurance of support asked for if her attitude regarding Servia brought certain consequences. The Emperor and the Chancellor did not believe that the danger of a general war was very great. It is a fact that they counted upon a period of safety—till February or March, 1916. I'iicy did so for several Teasons. The strategic railways in Poland could be ready uy that date, xhe Russian artillery was known to be in good order, but a year and a-half was needed to provide the siege material which Germans considered necessary for an attack upon the strong forts in the heart of Germany. It was also expected that in the course of 1915, France would introduce the automatic rifle, and make good her deficiency in long-range artillery. It was therefore considered there was time, as action by Germany's opponents | was not expected till their favourable , period in 1916. Why Germany considered February and March the dangerous , months was that the products of the , previous harvest would be nearly ex- , hausted, and the production of a new i harvest could be hindered by the enemy, j For these reasons, the military partici- [ pants in the Crown Council were in favour of strong action being taken on ' the- German Aiistiian side. They did not be- ' lieve that -,: probable enemies of Germany ; would allow their plans to be muddled I |bv a declaration of war at a time which I i was inopportune. ! The Emperor did not believe in play- I 1 ing with fire, neither did the Chancellor, ' I'll! the reason why the military party ''■ j overcame the powerful opposition "was the: existence of the belief that the enemy! I would delay striking, and would carefully ■ I prevent the Servian conflict becoming a' ; casus belli. In the entourage of the 1 . F.mpen.r there was great optimism, for it was felt that, for the moment at all everts, thincs were sale. Many people h'ld the opinion that the ultimatum to . Servia was so framed that Servia could j not accept it. Flavin;; shown how the Germans were 1 ! mistaken, this correspondent deal.; with ' -.'.•'.,;:• ii which has reached him from ■ lYf'L'iad, and armies that the military 'party there, and the Pan Slavs in their ' torsi, misjudged the temper of Germany. ' 'Ih'y attempted to bluff Germany, think--1 il.-.i. that the Gfnnan Emperor would > , never consent to a declaration of war ) against Russia. <