THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOOTHERS CROSS SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 1914. THE OUTLOOK IN CHINA.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LI, Issue 15504, 10 January 1914, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOOTHERS CROSS SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 1914. THE OUTLOOK IN CHINA.

The President-Dictator of China has justified his seizure of power in a very remarkable address to his consultative council. Yuan Shih-kai does not pretend to be enamoured with the Western theories of government which were advanced by the revolutionists in their successful rising against the Manchu dynasty. He asserts that anarchy has resulted from the methods of the suppressed republic, and that mere patriotic : zeal without ability will not enable ' rulers to avoid national ruin. He i points to the urgent need for money, j and asserts that unless the situation is faced " the fate of Annam and Corea will be upon us."' With a ' deficit of £72,000,000 and govern- ! ment completely disorganised, it is not difficult for ' the new Chinese autocrat to mate out a strong case ; in self-justification. England ac- ; cepted Cromwell under much less urgent conditions, and Cromwellism is in no way repugnant to Asiatic ■ conceptions. Democracy as we un- I derstand it is a plant of Western I growth, and suffers even in Anglo- j Saxon communities from visible '. blights. The average member of parliament in s New Zealand can hardly be regarded as a born legislator, while able administrators are rare enough in the best of our Cabinets. What saves the AngloSaxon in his political experiment of democratic self-government is that Law and Order are upheld by the strongest of national instincts and that organisation for their maintenance is automatic in emergency. In shipwreck and in disas- 1 ter, when towns are swept by fire j and river-valleys by flood, when ' mob-rule threatens and .when the national existence is imperilled, the Anglo-Saxon invariably displays his inherent genius for organisation. He may vote very foolishly, and watch parliamentary wrangling with stolid indifference, but he maintains order in such a manner that he has made democracy possible- The Chinese, like all other Asiatics, have developed a state organisation which depends upon the exercise of force and does not appeal to the emotional side of their racial character. To overturn the central authority, and to invite I myriads of Chinamen to submit ' themselves to a Parliament of wrangling debaters, was to let loose upon the Flowery Kingdom all the horrors of anarchy. A similar evil must visit India if British rule ever fails, while the domestic peace of Japan depends entirely upon the superstitious reverence paid to the strong arm of the Mikado. There is not an acre in all the vast continent of Asia which is governed upon democratic principles. China, is of ! all lands the most unfitted for republican experiments.

What is happening in China is that after passing through the anguish of a revolutionary period, whereby this most ancient of civilised peoples rid themselves of a foreign dynasty grown too weak to enforce respect and maintain order, I

the racial instinct turns as automatically to autocracy for safety as our Anglo-Saxon instincts turn to democratic methods. Yuan Shih-kai may or may not succeed in seating himself firmly on the throne and in reducing lawless provinces to submission; but either he or another will sooner or later establish a dynasty if China is not to fall into the hands of Europe and JapanGranting that he succeeds and that he finds himself the autocrat of 400,000,000 laborious people living in the richest and most denselypopulated region known to mankind, it is easy to see that he must necessarily direct its energies to the task of becoming a great naval and military Power. With Russia to the north, Japan to the east, France to the south, and every ambitious nation on the sea-board, it is hopeless for China to expect security unless she is able to maintain her territorial integrity by force of arms. A reliable army and a coastwise naval force is essential even for the establishment and maintenance of peace under the new autocrat. Anglo-Saxondom needs no army for domestic purposes; it arms and trains for defence only, its democracy being united on the point that loyalty is a duty where freedom is assured. Asia, on the other hand, submits only to force majeure, and knows no authority excepting that which compels obedience. The new Chinese autocrat is far too wise a man not to realise that the day of the bowmen and the war-junk has passed, and that any army and navy must be formed upon modern lines. His perception of this, with his wealth and rank, gave him his present opportunity. It is not enough, however, for a new dynasty to be strong enough to establish domestic peace and to resist foreign aggression. It must conciliate as well as dominate. It must identify itself with dominating national aspirations, and thus divert the antagonisms it necessarily rouses in its grasping after power. The dominating feeling in southern and eastern Asia is rapidly becoming that of indignation at the exclusion policies of Western nations. The Chinese are feeling this acutely and vindictively, although with their peculiar subtlety they mask their feelings under impassive faces- " What effect," we may well ask, " must the naval and military organisation of 400,000,000 have upon the English-speaking states in the Pacific?" Surely it is essential to our national safety that while China reorganises New Zealand should settle its waste lands and increase its British population?