THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. FRIDAY, MARCH 28, 1913. THE POWERS AND THE BALKANS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume L, Issue 15262, 28 March 1913, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. FRIDAY, MARCH 28, 1913. THE POWERS AND THE BALKANS.

The fall of Adrianople does not necessarily relieve the Balkan situation. For five months this strongly fortified city has resisted assault an/i blockade, but it is more than probable that its stubborn defence has been extremely unfortunate for the Turks. Had it fallen before the conclusion of the armistice, which preceded the London Conference, the Young Turk Party would hardly have succeeded in its revolutionary movement, for that was strengthened by the popular • indignation at the proposed cession of a stronghold still in Turkish hands. Adrianople was defended so stoutly, and with such ability that the ignorant and fanatical mob of Constantinople was encouraged to believe that it might be relieved and the . invading Christian host rolled back to the very borders of Bulgaria. The impossibility of any such turning of the scales of ■war was recognised. by the ablest and most patriotic of Turkish statesmen and generals, who reluctantly, agreed to yield the gallant citadel to the allies and in consideration of this concession were able to secure much better terms than would otherwise have been granted a thoroughly beaten foe. The war was renewed, not by any breach of faith on the part of the allies, but because the Porte was unable to fulfil, the London Agreement. As a result of this the allies have been plunged into _ enormously, increased

expenditure and lamentably heavy ! loss of life,, not the smallest expendij ture or the lightest loss being encountered at the very Adrianople | which the Turkish Government had formally undertaken to surrender. Under the circumstances it was not unreasonable to expect that much harsher terms would be imposed upon Turkey, and this is certainly the intention of the allies. With the investing army now released for operations at Chataldja and towards Gallipoli and with the Turks further disheartened by the fall of their historic stronghold it is not difficult to anticipate that the whole, of European Turkey may be overrun by the Balkan armies. Hence we have an increasing anxiety among the Powers and their evident wish to impress the Balkan States with a sense of the unitedness and firmness of Europe. In the • House of Commons Sir Edward Grey and Mr. Bonar Law, conforming to the traditional customs of British party leaders, have combined to inform whom it may concern that they agree entirely upon the necessity for imposing the decision of the Powers upon south-eastern Europe. Grave doubts will be entertained, however, as to whether this European harmony is more than superficial and the Balkan States are apparently inclined to test the matter by pursuing their victory and pushing their claim,. , The situation in Albania is, as delicate as , ever, and although Montenegro has not the fighting strength of her allies, they may well deem it impolitic to leave her to bear the brunt of Austrian antagonism. In compelling Montenegro to permit the exodus of the civilian population from beleaguered Scutari, Austria,has decidedly infringed neutrality, and has acted in a manner quite incomprehensible until it is realised that she is already acting as the protector of the Albania, to which she insists that Scutari shall be attached. As far as Albania is concerned it would not be an arduous task for Austria, assisted by the' Albanian mountaineers, to clear it of Montenegrins and Greeks; unless Italy demurs or the Powers quarrel. Austria is paramount in the northwestern Balkans, but the allies may help Montenegro by insisting that it shall receive consideration in the final rearrangement of the map. This final rearrangement may easily disturb the European harmony dilated upon by Sir Edward Grey. The allies could only protest against | any course of naval action agreed upon by the Powers, but they may hold indefinitely any territory occupied in European Turkey. Great Powers can .combine without much risk in tutoring Crete or in relieving a 'Pelcin Legation, but there is less simplicity of action' when the task Is ! the coercing. of States having a million men, trained, armed, practised and actually in the field. Not only have existing conditions to be considered by diplomatists, but they cannot afford to overlook the uneasy, temper of modern nationalities and the probability of future international complications. During the past six months the Balkan States have become a galaxy to be conciliated. There is no gain to either Austria or Russia in needlessly exciting the revengeful enmities of this ' warlike federation, and it is hardly conceivable that either Austria .or Russia will march a million men southwards to enforce the orders of a European conclave. Britain will certainly not Bend an expeditionary force to the Dardanelles in order to prevent the Turk being driven out of Europe by the Balkan armies. Intervention may take the form of mobilisations which necessitate the keeping of the allied armies in the field, and thus draining the financial resources of States not ; rich and already impoverished, but whatever steps are taken it is unlikely that every European Power will be equally sincere.,- - Britain wants peace with the steadfast earnestness of an Empire which cannot gain by war and may lose much,; but who shall say when more milk tant nations are prepared to throw 1 down the gauntlet? Three months ago the peaceful surrender of Adrianople would have set the bells of peace. chiming throughout the Balkans; the battering down of' the l defences of Adrianople .may be the prelude to fiercer sieges and wider war.