THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 1912. GERMANY AND THE. BALKANS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XLIX, Issue 15142, 5 November 1912, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 1912. GERMANY AND THE. BALKANS.

The announcement that Turkey has applied to the Powers for their mediation with a view to. securing peace opens up the entire question as to the desirability of maintaining the Ottoman Empire in Europe. As far as Britain is concerned there is a very ,wide difference between permitting a rival and probably hostile Power to seat itself in a commanding position upon the Eastern Mediterranean and accepting the partition of European Turkey among the Balkan allies. The traditional policy of British statesmen has been to favour Balkan autonomy against any* and every form of European conquest or annexation. Greece owes its place as a sovereign State to the destrucj tion of the Turkish fleet at N&varinb, and the Balkan States of to-day really owe more to the shrewd diplomacy of Lord Beaconsfield than to the more apparent but less disinterested actions of Russia. In the present generation there is less danger than heretofore of any serious and permanent interference with the route to India via Suez; but there are still many reasons why Balkan autonomy should be preferred by Britain to any other solution of the problem. The Triple Alliance, however, cannot.be expected to look thus favourably upon the claims of the Balkan allies or to be pleased at the remarkable display of military strength and capacity which has given them an undeniable right to a voice in arranging the future of European Turkey. The partition of European Turkey among the Balkan allies .—or the establishment of autonomous government under their protection, which would be tantamount to parti* tion—would give to the Triple Afli-< ance a shock very hard to bear. Germany aims at naval supremacy, and with naval supremacy could loot at its ease and at its pleasure that world-wide, ocean-borne empire of Britain which stretches from Newfoundland to New- Zealand) from Siam to Sierra Leone. Italy has transmarine ambitions, has already set her foot on' African territory, and may be rewarded for fidelity to the Triple Alliance, in its hour of,trial, not only by the recovery of Savoy and Nice, but at the expense of French provinces in Northern and Central Africa. Austria, however, has no love of the sea it is the dominating partner in a wholly continental empire and has directed its policy to the work of extending that empire to provinces accessible by road and rail; its price for allegiance to the Triple Alliance has notoriously been the expectation of marching through Macedonia to the iEgean, and the hope of seating it's Hapsburg emperors upon the restored throne of Constantine. If the Balkan allies hold Macedonia not only against the Turk but against, the Austrian, the Triple Alliance cannot easily pay an important partner. With this discouragement to Austria a serious check would be given to the farreaching schemes of Germany.

The relations of Germany with Turkey are peculiar. It has been necessary' for Germany to obtain commercial concessions, railway franchises and arsenal orders by persuading the suspicious .Turk- that she is his only friend. It has been even more necessary for her to assist Austria in maintaining the recently existing order of things in Macedonia. The annexation of Bosnia arid Herzegovina, in defiance of solemn treaties and at the opportunity afforded by the temporary military weakness of Russia, informed the world how little treaties and agreements are to be relied upon unless they can be advantageously kept. This annexation brought Austria into close touch with Macedonia and left her free to thrust her armies at Salonika—through the gap deliberately and designedly left open between Servia and Montenegro— whenever it might suit her to do so. It has long been assumed that in the tremendous conflict which must precede any graphic readjustment of the map of Europe and of the world the Triple Alliance may find itself confronted by Britain, France and Russia. Even before the Triple .Entente Russia was regarded as the Joe of Austria in the Balkans, for it

would not suit Russia to see a strong ; and inimical military Power, posted on tho Dardanelles, through which must .pass. the entire maritime trade of the Black Sea ports. „ ; There was thus a natural and obvious reason for Austria lending itself to German designs. On the face of things it seemed reasonable enough to think that when Russia had been reduced to quiescence an Austrian army would make short work of Macedonia, sent thither by the sympathy of Vienna and Berlin for all misgoverned Christians. Events have recently transpired however which make such designs appear as fantastical dreams. The Balkan States have called a million men to armsj dnd have shown a fighting strength which lifts them, above the. contempt of Austro-Germah statesmen. Russia will certainly not stand, back when ehe can win passionate allies by making common cause with the Balkan States if Austria attempts to tear Macedonia from them. If the Triple Alliance supports Austria ft has to face not only the Triple Entente but am unexpected Balkan, Confederacy, which with Russian help might pos-1 sibly strip Austria of all her Sclavonic provinces. Oh the other hand, i if the asserted unp'reparedness of Germany for war with Britain— unpreparedness dependent upon a naval disproportion which grows steadily less— Austria back and enables Macedonian autonomy to be obtained as. the price of peace with Turkey, the path of Austria to Salonika .is no. less surely barred. She must always expect to arouse the Balkan States if she renews her attempt.to move southward and cam never again regard Macedonia as the guaranteed reward of supporting a promising German enterprise. It may, therefore, be considered that Germany has suffered very severely by the Balkan outbreak, having lost thereby the power,to pay. easily her chief ally, by which loss the mutuality of interest in the Triple Alliance is very considerably diminished.