AMERICAN PRESIDENCY.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XLIX, Issue 15123, 14 October 1912, Page 9

AMERICAN PRESIDENCY.

A NOVEL SITUATION.

POSSIBILITY OF A DEADLOCK

[FROM oris OWN CORUESrOXDENT.]

San Fn.vxcisco, September IS. Ooxtixc.kxcies that have never yet occurred in the history of the United Slates are as likely a* not to flow from the threecornered fight for the Presidency now being waged with extraordinary vigour and bitterness:. It is quite on the cards that j neither of the three candidates will suei coed in winning a clear majority of the. \ members of the electoral college" and in ; that event the election will be withoutfruit. It then would devolve upon the House of Representatives to select a President, the choice being limited to the men who received the three highest votes in the electoral college. In voting for a President on November 5 next the people of the United Stales will not ballot directly for Mr. Toft. Mr. Roosevelt, or Mr. Wilson. They cast their votes for rival sets of electors, and these electors form the electoral college. There will be 531 members of the electoral college, and in the absence of a clear majority, or 266 votes, for any one candidate the* electoral college will come to a deadlock, and will have to resign to tho House of Representatives tho function of selecting the President. Until the last few weeks this possibility has been considered in a casual and academic manner. Nobody seemed to think seriously that such a 'contingency would actually arise. Thoughtful men now concede that the possibility of having to call into '.ise these hitherto untried constitutional provisions is very great. The conservative strength of both parties is concentrating on Mr. Taft, so that his vote will be one of at least respectable proportions; Mr. Roosevelt, is certain to carry the Radical vote; Mr. Wilson seems to be holding the rank and tile of the Democratic party, and probably will get the non-par-tisan support of many anti-extremists. With the lines so drawn'it does not seem possible for anyone of the three to get more" electoral votes than tho other two combined. It is not sufficient to poll a mere plurality; an absolute majority is essential.

In speculating upon the eventualities should the election bo thrown into the House of Representatives, a curious situation is revealed. Tho balloting will be in the bands of the present House, which was elected in November, 1910. The House wil t vote by States, each State having one vote under the constitution. A clear majority of the States is necessary to a choice, although a quorum consists of a member from each of two-thirds of all the States. But the prospects of the present House selecting a president are exceedingly rare. A count shows that of tho 48 States 22 are represented by delegations whose majority is Republican and 22 are similarly Democratic. The remaining four are equally divided between Republican and Democrats. With the additional complica- **» arising from the fact that some of the 22 Republican States are represented h l ' * nsur S ent " or Roosevelt Republicans the chance of any of the three candidates getting an absolute majority is seen to be remote. But the constitution furnishes vet another means of breaking the deadlock. In case the House of Representatives fails to elect a President tie Vice-President becomes President.. But this avenue also seems to lead to trouble. If the country fails to elect a President it also will fail to" elect a Vice- * fl ! **• It then becomes the province of the Senate to select a Vice-President, its choice being limited to the two highest Yice-Prwidential candidates in the electoral college. With, the Senate so rigidly divided into Democrats, regular Republicans, I and insurgent Republicans, it is a matter of grave doubt whether any one of the preI sent Vice-Presidential candidates could command a majority. Should the deadlock continue unresolved until March 4, 1913, nnder the constitution P. C. Knox would become President by virtue of his position as Secretary of State. His duty would be to at once call Congress together to prepare the call for a special election. Two State elections have been held in the last fortnight, namely those in Maine and Vermont. Usually it is possible to forecast from these early State elections the trend of national opinion, but this year the three-party division makes this difficult. The complexity of the situation is shown by the fact'that eaeh of the three parties professes to-be highly gratified and encouraged by the results. In Vermont the Republicans failed of a majority of the votes for the first time in ten years", the Progressives or Rooseveltians cutting deeply into their strength. But enough Republican members of the State Legislature -were elected to ensure that the Republican candidate for governor will be seated. This is claimed as a victory by the Taft adherents, but the great Progressive vote is pointed-to boastingly by the Roosevelt party, particularly in view of tho fact that on this occasion the electors were not voting for him personally. On the other hand the Democrats find encouragement in the fact that for the first time in 10 years the Republicans were unable to elect their candidate outright. In Maine the Taft party is entitled to be pleased with the result. Two years ago Maine elected a Democratic governor, but last week the regular Republican candidate was successful. However, the party machinery was under the control of the insurgent Republicans/ and with tho consent of Mr. Roosevelt a split wag postponed until after the gubernatorial election, so that there was no test of Progressive strength in the election. Upon the whole the State elections so far do not indicate very much as to the way the vote may be expected to go in November.