THE AMERICAN PRESIDENCY

New Zealand Herald, Volume XLIX, Issue 15110, 28 September 1912, Page 9

THE AMERICAN PRESIDENCY

A CONFUSING SITUATION. MR WILSON'S STRONG CHANCE STRENGTH OF THE ROOSEVELT PARTY. [FROM OUR OWN CORRESPONDENT.] Sax Francisco, September 2. In" recent years—say, for four elections back—it has been no formidable task to accurately forecast the winner of the Presidential contest. At this stago of tlio picsent campaign, however, the portents are confusing and baffling, The most that can bo said is that it looks like a win for Mr. Woodrow Wilson, the Democratic ..nominee. Tho uncertainty is chiefly duo to the fact that for the first time in the history of the office there is a real three-sided fight, in progress. Third party movements have materialised before, but never with the immense momentum and enthusiasm, that characterise the National Progressive party, headed by Mr. Theodore Roosevelt. Other third parties have been defeated and extinguished -at the polls. This third party may be defeated- it will be extinguished no man believes. The prevailing opinion in the United States "is that the contest lies between Mr. Wilson and Mr. Roosevelt. President Taft's chances aro considered, to be slender indeed. The Democratic campaigners ad-' mit that it is Mr. Roosevelt they have to beat, and not the President. Tlio fact stares everyono in tho face that no President occupying the chair was ever so unequivocally repudiated by his own party as was Mr. Taft in tho primary pre-con-vention elections, when such States as Pennsylvania and Illinois rejected him in favour of Mr. Roosevelt by about 10 to l. Scarcely anyone questions Mr. Taft's integrity what is more, many who will vote against him do not question . his intentions either. But there is a widespread feeling that ho is easily influenced, ar/l that he is in the hands of tho " interests' chiefly monetary and corporatethat I have manipulated the government of this country for their own advantage. In the words of Mr. Roosevelt, "He means well, but lie means well feebly." This epigramaticallv expresses the dissatisfaction of tho American people with their present President, and explains why they are not at all likely to accord him the usual compliment of a second term.:. The Roosevelt campaign will bo a* stumping campaign. He is already at work in the New England States. Mr. Wilson, on the other hand, proposes to , pursue the "dignified" course of staying at home and addressing the country through the medium of speeches to clubs who shall, visit him, making, perhaps, a few visits to other States for set speeches. This programme is not, however, hard and fast, and events may force him to abandon it. President Taft is also averse to stumping the country, as derogatory to his office. •" Mr. Roosevelt is an unrivalled campaigner. Perhaps his closest rival in this; regard in the United States being Governor Johnson, of California, who is the Roosevelt party candidate for the Vice-presidency. In calculating the chances of the respective candidates at the election, much lias, to be allowed for the vote-winning, "convincing powers of these two men. If they can in that time personally come in contact with a sufficiently large number of voters, their power might be such as to offset Mr. Wilson's present apparently favourable position.

Another thing thfct has to be taken into account is the religious atmosphere that pervades the Progressive party's campaign. At the convention of the party'the delegates repeatedly sang such hymns as "The Battle Hvmn of the Republic" and " Onward, Christian Soldiers.'* At the Roosevelt meetings it is the same thing ; " Onward, Christian Soldiers" is generally sung at the opening of the proceedings. This is a new element in American campaigning. It is rather alarming 'to the opposing parties. They cannot afford _to laugh at this'novel association of religion arid politics, and it'is quite patent that an immense number of votes may be drawn from the old parties by reason of this very thing. The hardest task that faces Mr. Roosevelt is to find some hole in the armour of Mr.. Woodrow Wilson. The Democratic candidate is not alone a master of the philosophy of government, bub he has to his credit a record of achievement as Governor of New Jersey in the way of' progressive legislation that stamps him as a successful practical politician. The logic of the situation is that lie should win as against a faction-ridden Republican party. I There is no point at. which he is susceptible 'of dangerous attack. Even the papers most strongly favourable to Mr. Roosevelt speak well of him. So Mr. Roosevelt's struggle for the Presidential chair is made all the heavier by the strength and high standing of his chief opponent. The tariff issue will be prominent again, although not of such moment, perhaps, as the issue of social and industrial justice. Mr. Taft is the soundest from the. protectionist point of view, while Mr. Woodrow Wilson would greatly lower the. duties. Tho Democratic candidate,* however, would not abolish Customs duties, and in his speeches on the tariff has been particularly careful to say that such changes as are made should bo so brought about as not to dislocate business. Mr. Roosevelt always has been a protectionist, and no attempt was made to disturb tho duties during his seven years in White House. Mr. 'Roosevelt's appeal is to voters of both the old parties, of ...which he says: — "There is not one particle of hope for social or economic reform in the triumph of either tho Democratic or Republican party. Each is boss-ridden and privilegecontrolled. Neither dare face the real issue of to-day. Each proposes, sham remedies and tries to distract the attention of the people from their real needs by the empty sound and fury with which they quarrel over false issues. The two old parties are screens each for its own sinister alliance with crooked politicians and crooked financiers."

But. it all comes back to tho question of what inroads Mr. Roosevelt will prove able to make in the normal Democratic vote. Tho Democrats have this year an able, progressive candidate. Will they stand by him and disregard tho invitation, so alluringly held out by the leader of the third party ? If they do they will, without doubt, elect their own candidate.