THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 5, 1911. THE EUROPEAN SITUATION.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XLVIII, Issue 147687, 5 September 1911, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 5, 1911. THE EUROPEAN SITUATION.

With the Belgians strengthening their frontiers, with German reservists called home, with 30,000 German navy men gathered at Kiel, and with feverish activity shown at every military atod naval depot in Western Europe, it would be folly to assume that the outlook is not serious, or that Lloyd's war risk insurance rates are rising without cause. Yet it would be equally foolish to consider war as inevitable, and to dismiss as baseless the hope that ; diplomacy may still find an avenue of escape from a difficult situation.' As a matter of fact the extreme probability is that Germany and France are playing a dangerous but exciting, game of political bluff, and that each is prepared to stop short of a declaration of war. British diplomacy, for some reason or other, is practically unacquainted with this game as played by Continental chancellories ; it is . mainly due to this that British methods are so frequently declared to be lacking in "diplomacy," and that the Empire is so little concerned in Continental intrigues. Upon several different occasions, within the past generation, the British Government has reluctantly come to the conclusion that it must fight with some one or other of the civilised nations, and on each occasion, excepting in the solitary case of the Boer States, the result has been that the British posi-' tion has been admitted and made the basis of settlement/ Continental governments do not follow this course, possibly because they have a : variety of ways by which they can bewilder the enemy and are free from any fear of serious interference from parties which eagerly seek to embarrass their own country at the first hint of coming war. In Germany, for example, the press is notoriously in touch with the Government, and to a very great extent simply re-echoes and repeats with variations, the . lesson the Government seeks to impress for the moment upon the public mind. At the present time the German press is inflammatory and threatening; the ! German public is reciprocally simmering with excitement in spite of Socialist protests; German preparations are being openly made; German claims are being strenuously advanced. This may all be very S real, but it is very possibly deliberately designed to convince France that Germany is in earnest and that the price of peace will have to be | paid in the shape of great concessions. The British Government could not possibly set up such a menacing appearance unless it was quite prepared to fight—the press would criticise and quarrel; the public would be divided; parties would seek to make political capital; special warlike preparations would react disadvantageously upon commerce. But every Continental nation, and Germany in particular, is able to introduce this factor into diplomatic negotiations. (

Germany and France are the chief parties to the Morocco question. As far as the British Government is concerned it is known to be standing firmly by the side of France, and to be insisting that France shall have fairplay and that British interests shall not be ignored. Our lack of the true diplomatic spirit is shown by the unhesitating acceptance of the idea that if France is forced into war through her inability to accept the German terms then Britain and the British Empire will stand or fall , by the Frenchman's side. As for Morocco, it is admittedly not worth fighting over, but it is manifestly impossible for any nation to continue in existence which surrenders any legitimate claim before a display of force and for no other reason than that the cost of maintaining the claim would be more than its worth. What would be decided in a war is not merely the fate of Morocco, but' the fate of the whole world. German expansion and German ambition have reached a point where they come into direct contact with the established claims and natural developments of France and with the world-wide interests of Britain. Germany has a right to great consideration for the sufficient reason that she is a great nation and a s capable nation, as well as for the more compelling reason that she is strong in war as in peace. But Germany haa

no right to dictate to "the civilised world or to act as though- there were no authority known to mankind higher than' an order from the Kaiser. If Germany can dictate in Morocco, she can dictate in the Congo, in Madagascar, in Belgium, in South Africa, in New Zealand, in the United Kingdom, anywhere. As for France — will follow Belgium from the map if it is once established that the " mailed fist " of Germany is. the of international law. Doubtless Germany does not hope or expect at the present time, and even with the support of Aus j tria and Italy, to dictate in an unqualified manner to Britain, France, and Russia; but she certainly does hope to get a good bargain out of the Morocco affair, and she certainly expects to obtain the bargain as an alternative to a threatened war. This being so, it is tocher interest to impress France as much as possible ; • similarly it is to the French interest to make as great a display of opposing forces as , possible in order that Germany may be impressed with the French position. and thus be led to' moderate her demands. These considerations cannot be overlooked in weighing the prospects of a peaceful settlement. The real danger probably lies in the risks which must ever attend playing with such dangerous elements, rather than in any determination on the part of either France or Germany to prefer hostilities to compromise. Obviously these risks are greatly increased by the long continuance of the discussion, but the latest information is to the effect that the outlook is improving, and it is quite likely that in another month this episode will be remembered as an unhappy dream.