THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 1908. THE BALKANS AGAIN.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XLV, Issue 13874, 7 October 1908, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 1908. THE BALKANS AGAIN.

Thirty years ago, that Treaty of Berlin which was the masterpiece of the foreign policy of Beaconsfield adjusted the Balkan question upon a basis which forced Russia back behind the Danube and confined Turkish administration . / to the Southern provinces of the' once extensive European territories of the Porte. . Bourn and Servia were accorded their independence, an advance upon their previous position vassal principalities. Bosnia and Herzegovina were placed under Austrian administration and military occupation. The long won indepen : dence of Montenegro was formally acknowledged. Bulgaria oppression by the Turkish BashiBazouks had been the nominal cause of the Russo-Turkish War— was created a principality, autonomous and tributary. - * Eastern Boumelia was ordered to remain as a province under the direct political and military authority of the Sultan, with political autonomy, but in 1885 a successful lloumelian revolution, on behalf of union with Bulgaria, led to the practical incorporation of the province since known as South Bulgaria. The general settlement tf the main Balkan problem, which deals with national boundaries and political authority, has remained sufficiently permanent from 1878 until the present - month in 1908, <u spite of wars, rumours of wars, revolutions, assassinations,, and other disturbances. But the settlement has suddenly been reopened to a certain extent by the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina to Austria and the proclamation of independence by Bulgaria. Any serious disturbance of the established order cf tilings in the Balkans excites" fears of international quarrel, but under all the circumstances .there is. considerable reason, to assume, thftt the

sole danger of a disturbance of the international peace lies :in the-pros-pect of the Young Turkey "party, now', in power at .-Constantinople, considering it necessary to prove its patriotism and energy by setting out to reduce Bulgaria to vassalage byforce of ; arms., 'That; the Balkan status established by the Treaty of Berlin should have endured with such slight alteration for thirty years is a': magnificent tribute to the genius of the great British statesman, and if the changes now being made should pass off peacefully .it will be shown that his settlement not only covered the immediate difficulties of the day, 'but allowed for subsequent changes to meet changing conditions. , It would be as absurd as it Would be impossible to attempt to bind nations and Governments for all time, when with the passage of the years conditions inevitably alter. The question to-day is not, therefore, whether the terms of the Treaty of Berlin should be maintained in their entirety, but whether the alterations proposed are reasonable and justified by existing circum* stances—that is to say, whether they can be peacefully carried out.

Although Austria has always regarded Bosnia and Herzegovina as her special property, and though Bulgaria has for years been preparing to assert her independence, the immediate cause of the present situation, both in the Austrian districts arid in Bulgaria, is the Young Turkish movement. This remarkable display of power by a moderate, earnest, and patriotic organisation of young Turks, who quietly secured control of the army and civil services and overturned ancient abuses without bloodshed and without vindictiveness, has not only aroused the hopes of the Turks, but has to some extent excited the fears of their neighbours. There can be no doubt that it is the passionate ambition of the Young Turks to reorganise Turkish nationality and to place their country again among the great Powers of the world. They are preaching liberty and nationality with equal earnestness and determination, and have a scheme for making. Turkish the official language in all the provinces, and for having it taught in all the public schools. While this proposal would not apply to the autonomous principality of Bulgaria, it applies to a great many Bulgarians in Macedonia, from whom has come one of the first signs of disagreement in a movement which had united Christian and Moslem in fraternal sympathy. It will at once be seen that Austria, which has had for a full generation the administration and government of Bosnia and 'Herzegovina, was placed in a doubtful position as long as these districts were held to belong to Turkey, while a vigorous and progressive party introduced anew national policy. As for Bulgaria, it has evidently been concluded that the political situation ill Constantinople and the turning of Turkish energy towards internal reforms' give ; her an opportunity which is not likely to be repeated. Both Austrians and Bulgarians.have therefore taken steps to safeguard their own interests, while the Porte is at what appears to be a disadvantage, a diplomatic course which should teach the British Empire that its enemies will leap upon it in its moment of weakness, and not in its day of strength. If Turkey accepts the situation with equanimity there is little likelihood of trouble; and the prospects are that she will do so. Nothing can be done . against Austria in the face of German, Russian, and Italian support, even if, the other parties to the Treaty of Berlin were .prepared to ' enforce it literally ; and Great Britain has always been friendly to Austrian interests in the Balkans, recognising that the Government of Vienna is a rival of the

Government of St. • Petersburg. Doubtless Russia and Germany, like Italy, will require payment in reciprocity on occasion for their support, but that will cost Austria nothing. As for Bulgaria, the change from vassalage to independence is not so great that Turkey need necessarily fight on it. The united influence of the European Powers will be against any throwing of the torch of war into what has aptly been termed "the powder magazine of Europe," and the Young Turkish party is desirous of- retaining for the present the support and assistance of tlje Powers. It would be unwise for the energy of reform to be diverted into a war, of which the issue may be doubtful, and the sequence of defeat a revulsion of the Turkish people against discredited leaders .: and at the best, supposing Turkey to be the conqueror, the Powers would intervene to prevent any great gain by victory, as they did after the Greco-Turkish War of 1897. Bulgaria may be blamedj but a people which arms and drills, procures artillery and provides equipment, until it can call nearly 300,000 men into the field, and can muster half that number at the first alarm, has some right to claim independence.