THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 25, 1905. THE POWDER MAGAZINE IN THE BALKANS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XLII, Issue 13006, 25 October 1905, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 25, 1905. THE POWDER MAGAZINE IN THE BALKANS.

The threatened recrudescence of the Eastern Question in its most acute and dangerous form—the active intervention of the European Concert —conjures up a prospect "which can hardly fail to fill the minds of the friends of peace with the gloomiest forebodings. The Balkan Peninsula has for many years been regarded as the powder magazine of the Continent, and the statesmen of Europe, dreading an explosion which would inevitably produce a conflagration of appalling magnitude, have been ransacking their brains for some safe and effectual means of pouring water on the powder. So far, however, their efforts have proved futile. The powder still remains dangerously dry and only waits foi a match to be put to it- lo go off with tremendous force. And it looks now as if the Powers had at last made up their minds to risk applying the match themselves. According to a cable message- which we published .yesterday, they are preparing a joint Note in the form of an ultimatum to the Porte on the question of reforms in Macedonia, and should the Sultan still remain obdurate this will be followed up by a united naval demonstration, which, it is no doubt hoped and believed, will have the effect of bringing Abd-ul-Hamid to his senses. But, assuming that it fails to do so, what then? In that case the situation would become very serious indeed. The Powers would have either to declare war against Turkey or retire baffled and humiliated, leaving the Sultan in a stronger position than ever. And it is exceedingly problematical, as far as one can judge from, what is known, whether the Concert would hold together to the point of actual hostilities. Austria might be billing to land troops at Salonica with the hope of being permitted to occupy permanently that port, which she regards as coming within her sphere of influence, in the event of the break-up of the Turkish Empire. Russia, too, might be ready and even eager to send an army into the Balkans. But the attitude of the other Powers is by no means so easily forecasted. It is extremely doubtful, for example, if Germany would fire a single shot or risk the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier in an attempt to coerce Turkey. For the last eight or nine years the policy of the Kaiser has been to secure and maintain German ascendency at Yildiz Kiosk. One has only to remember the part he played in 1897, when Turkey - and Greece were on the verge of war. He was then found protecting Turkey in a way for which it was said Abd-ul-Hamid felt much gratitude. He was always the last to assent to any "representations" on the part of the Powers to the Sultan which he thought might prove displeasing to the latter. And the advice" which he tendered to His Majesty was so acceptable and comforting that the Sultan returned

his warmest thanks and' asked for more. Since then the Kaiser has continued to pose as the friend of Turkey, and we see no good reason for supposing that lie is now prepared to abandon that role. As for Great Britain and France, it is inconceivable - that they would be found ready to bombard Constantinople and to destroy the integrity of an Empire for the maintenance of which they both spent freely blood and treasure half-a-century ago. The Concert of Europe is an excellent thing in theory, but in practice it is invariably full of discord and jarring sounds.

It must be admitted at the same time that something should be done short of war to ameliorate the condition of the unfortunate Christian population of Macedonia. The Treaty of Berlin secured to them the promise of definite reforms, but after twenty-seven years that promise remains unfulfilled:. They are still ground down by corrupt and remorseless pashas and massacred by brutal Turkish soldiers. The AustroRussian scheme for the policing of Macedonia with a gendarmerie under European officers, which was accepted by Turkey two years ago, seemed as if it would achieve some practical result and afford the Macedonians protection against the exactions of Turkish officials and the outrages of Turkish troops. But ib is still in the air, and is no better than so .much waste paper. Recognising, it may be assumed, that/ the creation of such a force would in time lead to the exclusion of the regular troops and to the weakening of his rule in Macedonia, Abd-ul-Hamid, whose brain power is said to be superior to that of any of his predecessors, has steadily and persistently placed obstacles in its way, and has evidently made up his mind not to abate one jot of his authority. The game he has been playing with so much success has'now come to a head. What will next happen we shall probably know within the next few days. The situation has now reached a critical point. When ultimatums are drafted and warships set in motion anything may happen. 1 It may be that the curtain has fallen on the tragic drama in the Far East only to rise on a greater, tragedy in the Near East. There are at least all the elements which render possible a great catastrophe. The Balkan States, made up of rival races and factions, ar:.- in a perfect welter. Macedonia is panting to be free ; Turkey, constantly fearing dismemberment, is growing more and more bitter and fanatical; while the Powers themselves are actuated by different and conflicting interests and ambitions. It has been said that, for reasons which it is difficult to explain, but which experience has shown to have very real force, the Turkish Government is very open to being impressed by a strong naval demonstration. In that case the Porte ma.V give way before the threat of the Powers and the gathering storm may blow over. But at the present moment the outlook' is distinctly ominous.