TRADE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XL, Issue 12344, 8 August 1903, Page 5 (Supplement)

TRADE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.

POSSIBILITIES OF THE ARGENTINE. THE OUTLOOK IN SOUTH AFRICA. :., A BUSINESS MAN'S OBSERVATIONS. In order to learn Something of the commercial future before Argentina and the situation in South Africa as they appear to an observant business man who' has recently visited > both countries, a' representative s of the HERALD waited upon Mr. J. 0. Banna (inspector for the New Zealand Insurance Company). Mi. Hanna, who was necessarily heavily handicapped by accumulated work, nevertheless kindly found time to express some of- bis views on the commercial outlook in the countries he visited, and more especially • of Argentina : and South Africa. Of the former country he had much to say that must commend itself to thoughtful students of the commerce of the world, and particularly as •; Argentina has boon • regarded, and no doubt with strong reason, as the most serious r trad© competitor of this colony and of the Australian States. His views on the present condition of affairs in South Africa arid the commercial outlook in that country may seem -to be somewhat gloomy, but they, have been shared with -. other observers no less well qualified than he, if better" known perhaps to the world at large, to present their views for the serious consideration of thinking men, and especially . of statesmen and economists. ,\ " Mr. Hanha left Auckland in April; 1902, for the United State!?, and he travelled from San Francisco, through Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota. He was particularly struck with the richness of ; the Sacramento Valley, which for the 200 miles of its length between San Francisco and Portland, Oregon, is probably the- richest area of country in the whole of the States.. After skirting V the Canadian border, travelling by the Northern Pacific railroad. Mr. Hanna reached Chicago by the North-Western, where he joined ■ the main trunk line, travelling by Detroit to Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal. -.-;. Twice had he crossed the American continent beforeonce by Salt Lake City and once by the southern route— -\ but although travelling by the northern route as he did this time, he found that the extra two or three days occupied by the journey were amply rewarded. CANADIAN PROGRESS. The service was excellent, and the accommodation consisted of handsome dining-cars,; barber's shop, bathrooms, . drawingroom,' library, and an observation car, from which one could view the country passed through in all weathers, and in absolute comfort. ■: "What was your impression of Canada?" "Canada is going ahead, especially in the north-west provinces, by leaps and bounds, and I doubt if there is any other portion of the British dominions so financially sound. If one takes the trouble to peruse the last Financial Statement of the Federal Treasurer he will see that the revenue exceeded the expenditure by £3,000,000, and that the Government proposed to sot aside more than 50 per J cent. of this surplus for the purpose of paying off some of the existing loans.!' From Montreal Mr. Hanna travelled down to New York, where ha embarked for Southampton in a Hamburg-American liner. When the vessel had been one day out a Marconigram was received on board announcing the startling news of the King's illness and the consequent postponement of his coronation. , From London Mr. Hanna went to Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, crossed over the Cordilleras to Chili, and) returned by the Magellan Straits, Falkland . Islands, , and Lisbon to London. Speaking of the. west coast , of South America, Mr. Hanna said he knew the whole of the seaboard country fairly well, for; he had in 1897 travelled up from Cape Horn to British Columbia. : The commercial, financial!, and social * condition of Central America did not impress him very favour- . ably, excepting Mexico, and the same might be said 1 of the united States of Colombia, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Undoubtedly Argentina and Chili were the pick of the basket, so to speak, of the South American portion of the. continent. ;• "And what were your impressions of the Argentine as compared with Australia and Now Zealand?" THE ARGENTINIAN ADVANCE. " The trade of the Argentine," replied Mr. Hanna, " is only in its infancy. The exports, being the ■ natural products, of the earth's surface, show a largo and steady increase year by year. I have the figures here. Now, let me see, in 1889 the exports amounted to £18,000,000, in 1892 to £39,000,000, and the country is every year becoming more selfcontained, but the Government shows a disposition to support • what may be termed 'bastard' industries—that iB, industries wiucn cannot siand alone without the aid oi substantial protection. Foreign export houses and their travelling representatives resent this very much, because the severe local proteoted industries on oertain lines is an effectual block to their doing business." " What are the chief lines imported? " Oh, general merchandise, clothing, machinery, cornsacks, woolpacks, and articles of that oharacter." " Is not the dairying industry also developing into one of considerable profit and importance?" ;•• "Yes; in 1896 the value of the butter and cheese exported amounted to only a few thousand pounds, but the increase has been steady all along until last year there was some £300,000 worth of dairy produce exported, which was double the value of the amount sent away in 1901. It is sent to the United Kingdom and to South Africa." "Our own particular markets?" " That is so." "And what of the frozen meat trade?" I "Well, at the time of my visit to Buenos Ayres there were only three freezing works i in the Argentine; but the output ' of these three equalled that of the whole of suck

! works in Australia'; and New . Zealand, and ■ they amount to from between 40 and SO. "And fcho industry is expanding?'' "There are now three very big ! new frees- ', ing works going up, and this will mean that the Argentine output of mutton awl beef will | be doubled." ' "What conclusions do you draw > from that?" , " Why. sine© tho animal' food exported from countries south of the Equator: is ; pretty evenly divided between: the Australian colo- [ nies and New, Zealand and'the Argentine, it appears to mc to : be inevitable that the j supply will presently be; far in excess of the I demand. The increased output of beef and mutton from them.', must, in tho ordinary course of things, 'seriously; affect; Aiistriuia and New Zealand; Furthermore,) Argentina has a geographical advantage ovor us. It now occupies about 60 days from New Zealand, and five to seven davs lass from Sydney to the United Kingdom, vie ■ Sue* ;y. 65 to 70 days by way of the Cape. In the case of South Africa, say, Capetown, tho time from Now Zealand via Australia is 47 days. Now, the run from * Buenos Avrea or ; Monte Video: to the English Channel is IB to 20 days; to CapeI town 12 days. . r , ■* <, | A CONCENTRATED INDUSTRY. •.'■■ " Again, the freezing .trade in , the', Argentine is much more, concentrated, there being I but three huge freezing works; to be, as | said before, increased to six, and : these are ' and will be situated within a; radius of : 20: I miles from one another, and in addition close I to tho steamers, and all' in communication with tho principal ertancics by railway; finally, the cost of raising slock in the. Argoni tine is very much less than in cither Now Zealand or Australia." / ; *■ , "But what of tho financial status of the Argentine Republic?" . " I found that the actual revenue Was about £14,000.000; but it. was not easy to' obtain accurate figures or to distinguish between net? revenue and the proceeds of conversions and the unexhausted balances available ■ from money voted in previous years." " And is not the security of so much capital, British chiefly, somewhat diminished by the possibility of ; war 7 with = neighbouring countries or civil war within the; Argentine itself?" "No. The oldest and most capable authorities within the': Argentine and out", of' 1 it are agreed that a revolution worthy of the name ■ is ; never ) likely ! ? f to recur. ; The ; war scare with Chili,.' now happily settled once and for all under arbitration, probably involved Argentina in a heavy expenditure, with a corresponding addition to the national indebtedness: but which, after all, is well in line with the resources of the country and the capabilities of ; tho population, for the :.' indebtedness, ; under all heads; does not amount *to more 'than about £130,000,000." : ' '" ;• * - Mr. Hanna then referred to Chili and its people, who claimed to bo considered as the British of South America, having never so far _ made default in meeting their national obligations, cither in * regard to principal or interest. *' Chili's main source of ,wealth," he continued, "in thy meanwhile is nitrate, but the deposits from which it is obtained will not last for over." Mr. Hanna travelled over the Andes by rail, mule, and coach, reaching ' a point 13,000 feet above sea level in crossing the vertebras of South America. THE FUTURE OF THE HAND. In referring :to the ; present conditions and j the future prospects of South Africa Mr. Hanna , seemed to take a dolorous view of the situation, and he is thoroughly familiar ! with the country, having visited it in - 1898, j in 1901, and ; now having just left it. "In i normal times," said Mr. ;. Hanna, " the annual imports of food and clothing from oversea amounted to £28,000,000, which was paid for with diamonds and gold to the extent of £20,000,000, and wool, ostrich feathers, . and other produce, totalling, > say, ft £5,000,000. How the balance was made up no one seemed to know, or caro; presumably it was financed against the future. In my, experience a large proportion of the country is stony and waterless,: while : cattle and horses are subject to rinderpest and horse-sickness respectively. Plenty of water is said" to be obtainable by boring, and no doubt ;> it could'be stored and utilised; but, even so, it is a question "if the waste and unoccupied lands are capable of profitable occupation. Reading between the : lines that seems .to have been, the conclusion arrived at by exporta sent out by, tho British Government and from New South Wales. ' Sir Wm. Wilcox (the eminent Egyptian' irrigation engineer), in his report to the Imperial Government, and ' to-'Lord-Milne!, pointed out that the prosperity and well-being of every interest in South Africa will depend upon the prosperity of the Rand, certainly for the next 50 years." • .-■"■''•■■■.... ' "How does that accord with Mr. Chamberlain's somewhat rosy view of the coun try?;'. -" ' " ' ' _ ? "In my opinion Mr. Chamberlains speeches must bo taken in, s the nature of a prospectus, and great allowance made for his glowing pioture of the present and future prospects of • South Africa. In saying tins I ami only repeating what most of the serious newspapers of South ' Africa have already said. Tho actual position at the present time is this: The population of Capetown has increased, but the industries in and out of the city and district have not increased. The influx of population is due to the attraction of the Rand., The people are; living at Capetown and other seaports because it is cheaper to live on the coast than at Johannesburg, and are all waiting patiently for the revival of mining on the Rand. For the past two years a land and building boom has been :in full swing in :,Capetown, and last year transfers in real estate to the value of £11,000,000 were put through the registry office, upon which mortgages aggregating £9,000,000 were simultaneously registered.". Foreclosures ' and forced realisations are already in evidence, showing that the activity in the property market is on a purely paper basis. . " Taking the country as a whole the balance of trade against it for the past two years, not taking into account the military and Imperial Government supplies, may be put at £40,000,000. The gdods imported .consisted largely .of foodstuffs and clothing, only a very small proportion of which can be charged against: permanent development. The imports consequent on ,an' anticipated boom on the conclusion of the war are about three years ahead of the country's . require- . meat*-"

THE LABOUR PROBLEM. " And what of the future, particularly in regard to the coloured labour problem?" _ "Well, '.; according to'.the best, authorities in the country, tho mining industry can only; be profitably carried on by coloured labour, kaffirs ;or Asiatics', i.' Let "me explain: ; Thei value of the gold exported before the war was £16,000,000 a year; last, year it was , £7,170,000. To place the' mining industry j on the footing 'it was before the _ war will require on additional ' 100,000 natives,y'and; these.; immediately.' '■'•; The i coloured .; man is unobtainable :..•■ locally, therefore" v the mineowners insist xipon filling their labour orders in either British India," China, or Japan, and unless they are permitted to recruit in these countries the : position, already » acute, will become increasingly serious, because more than 60 per cent, of the mines can only be worked at a profit by indentured labourers, at an annual cost of about £35 ,a-he«a"d'. Practically then the ; Rand lin a productive sense is a black man's country." ; "What of the present population of Johannesburg?" .- r -- :; v " Tho whites, including, ■'• of course, the Boers, number about 100,000. The population is increasing, but that it will ever reach ) the total thtjt many people.anticipate I have grave doubts! I have already said: that the' town is entirely dependent upon the mining industry, and "since its profitable development is dependent upon workers, who have no civil or other rights, and are fed by their ■ employers, and-whose spending power is limited, it must fpllow that the results of their 'labours . can have no {, lasting benefit . on the country, directly or indirectly." ;■ '■■■'■ "In conclusion, what you have, just said fairly,, represents the -. expression -of your opinions on* the country generally?" '"Yes; but they are not my opinions' alone, but also the opinions of inert/probably more capable of judging the trend of : ). things than I am, as you will; see if you think it worth '■', while to peruse- the.articles on the subject appearing in the National Review, Monthly Review, Contemporary, -Statist., for April," and '» the Economist for", May. \:i And, remember this, the vast area of _ South Africa only carries a white population ■: of some 1 750,000 whites, as against 6,000,000 of blacks."