THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. THURSDAY, APRIL 1, 1897.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXXIV, Issue 10405, 1 April 1897, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. THURSDAY, APRIL 1, 1897.

That Europe is drifting into war is a conclusion forced on any mind that hits been watching the trend of events. The pertinacity of Greece in pressing warlike operations in the teetli of till the Great Powers, and in the face of such overwhelming odds in the relative strength of that little Power, and of the Turkish Empire, is a surprise and a puzzle, but only because we are not in the knowledge of all the secret factors that are contributing to the extraordinary situation. Patriotism running into fanaticism might account for much, but neither enthusiasm nor fanaticism could have borne up against the terribly untoward aspect of aflairs with which the Greeks are confronted, if there were not behind the scenes some influences working, that give assurance to them that in the last resort some powerful hand will be put forth to shield them from the seemingly irretrievable disaster on which they are rushing. The Greek commander Vassos, from the impregnable fastnesses in which lie is posted, goes so far as declaring war against the Powers, and though lie can do so perhaps with impunity so far as the safety of hinself and his troops is concerned, it is an act that, seems calcu-1 lated to precipitate collision all along the line The isolated mountain region occupied by him has never recognised Turkish rule, and despite the efforts made by the Sultan's forces for many generations, it has remained a sanctuary of Cretan independence. But from his eyrie in the mountains the Greek commander has hurled a thunderbolt of war that seems very like the long expected explosion, lleinforcements have been called for from the Great Powers by the admirals of the blockading squadrons, and the hesitancy and the seemingly wavering counsels of the past have taken the form of grim earnest.

But no less serious developments have been taking place in another quarter, and the position and attitude of Greece and Turkey on their frontiers on the mainland have created a situation of even greater danger. The Turkish fleet has been making demonstrations oil the Gulf of Vola and Arte, the eastern and western inlets abutting on the border territory of Greece, in both of which squadrons of the Greek navy are keeping guard; while on either side of the border line the hostile forces of the two Powers have been massing, both inspired with the'implacable hatred of many generations, and both doubtless eager for the fray. The great disparity between the forces of the two nations at this point of threatened conflict might seem to argue absolute madness on the part of Greece, but there is an element in the conditions as affecting Turkey that must tend to neutralise her advantages. For it is known that the whole province of Macedonia at the rear of the Turkish army is in a state of scarcely suspended revolt, while the latest cables tell us that in Albania, the adjoining Turkish province, the Moslem and the Christian populations are in actual conflict. A general rising in these provinces, taking the Turkish army in the rear, would greatly embarrass the position of the Turkish forces, while 011 the other side of the border, the Greeks under the couimaud of the Crown Prince, backed up by the enthusiastic sympathy of the population behind them, though numerically very much inferior to the enemy, have many of the most important conditions of military success. Notwithstanding nil this, it is impossible to think that they would risk on such an unequal chance the very existence of the nation if they had not reliance on some still undisclosed factor. What the anticipated "God out of the machine" may prove to be, we can but vaguely conjecture. Can it be that Russia, with all her professions of concert, is secretly abetting Greece, and encouraging her on to precipitate a cataclysm from which the great Northern Power is hoping to emerge with rich apoijs of war,' The fact that the Czar is Bending enormous largesses for the relief of the Cretan refugees, would seem to indicate at least a divided sympathy; and though Greece has given expression to strong indignation against Russia for leading the concert of the Powers, in politics and statecraft things are not always what they seem. The rumour started at Copenhagen that Russia has been negotiating the cession of a Turkish island in the Levant for a Russian port and place of arms, may have been but a Danish canard to draw attention astray from another line of action ; nor is it at all incompatible with history and experience if even Russia should be playing a double game. By common consent it is conceded that Russia has the largest objects of all the Powers in connection with'the contingent dissolution of the Turkish Empire, and it is hardly too much to say that to avert an. explosion which would bring Russian pretensions actively to the. front is the principal object of the British &'v. ; ••- V f v • • V : •. ' . . •' •' '• \ V t

Government in the almost superhuman efforts that have been made to avert the outbreak of war. England is thoroughly sincere in desiring to postpone the dissolution of the Turkish Empire, for the reason that she knows that the moment that incident looms in sight, it will be the signal for her having to come face to face with Russia in a contest for the possession of Constantinople. England is sincere in this; is Russia? And may it not be that consciously or otherwise Greece is being made the tool for precipitating the final arbitrament in the question. There is nothing inherently improbable in this, and it would fully account for the seemingly inad and reckless way in which the little Power is tilting against Turkey, and apparently rushing her head against the impregnable strength of the great Powers in concert. Apart from this it is possible that Greece may be counting on the unconcealed sympathy of European popular feeling, more particularly in England and France. The support which M. Hanotaux, the French Premier, obtained from the Chamber of Deputies, on the question of whether France would continue to act with the concert, counts for no more than the fact that the challenge of Lord Salisbury to the Opposition in the British Parliament on the same question was not taken up. Behind both Ministers and Parliaments there is a force of public sentiment which both Premiere have recognised, and the interview which has just taken place between them seems very probably to have been related to the existence of this popular pressure, the importance of which they no doubt both squally know. It may with considerable certainty be said that neither the people of France nor the people of England would give their toleration to active measures for crushing Greece by force of arms, and that the same popular force, before which the Government of England as well as the Government of France must ultimately bow, would not tolerate the armies and the population of Greece being swept away by the overwhelming armies of the " unspeakable Turk." Whether from this, or from the secret sympathy of Russia, Greece has been playing a bold game, and one that from all existing appearances is approaching a critical stage; and in spite of the colossal force and influence seemingly on the side of peace, we have no reason remaining for surprise, if at any moment we may hear the din of war.