AN ELECTORAL FORECAST.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXXIII, Issue 10034, 22 January 1896, Page 5

AN ELECTORAL FORECAST.

[BT TELEGRAPH.— CORRESPONDENT.] Wellington, Tuesday. The approaching Christchurch election has quickened tho dead lovol of politics that has prevailed hero since tho now year, Of course, much that one hears is premature, but some things may be accepted upon the credit of respectable authority. So far as relates to the Christchurch election, the friends of the Opposition are hopeful, to a degree which was nob at first expooted. Ib is stated that Mr. Lewis has made a most favourable impression. On the othor hand, tho friends of Mr. Taylor consider his victory assured in all things except prohibition. It is affirmed that although Mr. Taylor is a Liberal in the widest sense of the word if eloctod he would be found anywhere except the Government benches. The centre of interest appears to be in the question who will be the Government nominee? I understand there is a " dark horso" in Christchuroh, a gentleman of good position, who will be brought out ■ when tho most favourable occasion serves. Notwithstanding the assurance given by Mr. Seddon to the electors of Wostland that he will " abide by thorn" when the struggle comes, pooplo hore persist in tho notion that tho Premier will run for Wellington. There is nothing to prevent his friends '•putting him up," and if he wore to have a majority in both ho might, as Sir George Grey once did, deoiare how happy he oould be with either, and so decide as to the electorate of his choice. The Premier is not likoly to admit any one to his confidence on this point, Next to Christchurch, the constituency that is creating interest just now is Otaki. Mr, J. G. Wilson is the sitting member, Sir Walter Buller is the immediate aspirant to its representation, and Mr. Donald Eraser is talked of as likely to have the support of the Government. Ib was said that Mr. Wilson had contemplated a trip to England, hub as an assault upon his politioal stronghold was threatened he changed his mind, Sir Walter Buller was also inclined towards England, but ho also has changed his mind that he might obtain a seat in Parliament to vlndioate his political and professional integrity against the Minister of Lands. One adventurous statement is that the Hon Mr. MoKenzie would contest the seat, but this appears to be too absurd for beliof. The general belief is that the real contest will be between Mr, J. G. Wilson and Sir W. Buller, for in all things except the favour of tho Minister of Lands Sir Walter inclines in political faith to the present Government. But there are " rooks ahead." Tho Horowhonun Commission may produce now developments.