GOOD NEWS FOR OUR FARMERS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXVII, Issue 8326, 5 August 1890, Page 5

GOOD NEWS FOR OUR FARMERS.

THE APPROACHING COLLAPSE OF AMERICAN COMPETITION.

Last week wo drew attention to tho approaching end of the export of wheat from America. It has been calculated—with the prosenb population of tho United States, and its rate of incroase—that five years will seo the export of wheat from

that country at an end. The local market there is growing faster than the wheat fields are extending. Tho supply of meat will also be curtailed from tho same causes, and these coming changes can hardly be othe.-

than beneticial to New Zealand farmers and graziers. The Review of Reviews of Juno last also deals with the same subject as follows :— The real economic question which underlies Irish agitation is the fall in the value of land caused by the excessive competition of American produce. Whether or not Irish land legislation succeeds depends entirely upon whether or not the value of Irish land has touched bottom. As long as the American farmer can put his beef in the English market at a lower figure per pound than the Irish farmer can produce it, there is no hope of any tranquility in Ireland. Rut the moment American produce rises in value, that momont tho tide will begin to turn. The present lull in Ireland is much more duo to tho prices of meat in the Chicago market than to all the legislation of the Imperial Parliament. But it is not only in Ireland that American competition has revolutionised tho conditions of agriculture. There is probably not a county in England in which there are not farms idle at this moment and landlords at the brink of ruin because of the

impossibility of producing meat and wheat at paying prices, in face of the cheap produce of the American prairie. Hence lam inclined to regard Mr. C. Wood Davis's papers in the Forum of April and May as being quite the most important from an economic point of view of any in the periodicals under review this month. Mr. Wood Davis sets forth with a great display of statistical information that American competition, so far as wheat and meat are concerned, is on its last legs, and in a very short time America will actually have to import wheat to feed her own population ! For years past, he points out, the American farmer has been almost driven to bankruptcy by the excessive production of cereals ami stock.

He calculates that it requires an acre and a quarter to produce the agricultural product consumed at home or exported abroad. During tho last fourteen years so much land has been brought under cultivation that the average per head rose to ,'U in 188-1, and it was the crops of the surp'u* quarter acre which flooded tho homo and foreign markets. In 1888, however, this average per head had fallen from 3 '51 to 3'3G, and the process thus begun will proceed till in 189 there will only bo 3 acres per head, owing to the natural increase of the population. If the American people continue to require the product of 31 acres each, they will have to make an annual addition of 6,000,000 acres at least to koop pace with the natural increment of population. For years past the annual additions have been less than 3,000,000 of acres. Mr. Davis's conclusions are as follows :—

"If the computation of the area required per capita be correct, and if the Department of Agriculture has not under-estimated the area employed in growing the staple crops, domestic consumption will absorb the entire product of cereals, potatoes, and hay within five years from January, 1890, and thereafter agricultural exports will consist almost wholly of tobacco, cotton, and animal products, the volume of which will shrink as constantly, if not in the same degree, as home consumption increases. An equalisation of the supply of the various staples will readily follow from the application of corn and wheat fields to the growth of such products as may, from time to time, be in I most urgent demand. Meantime, prices will steadily advance. To most people it would probably appear absurd to suggest that well within ten years it may be found necessary to import large quantities of wheat to feed tho everincreasing population ; but such will be tho logical sequence of the necessity of employing wheat fields in tho growth of other staples, and of tho exhaustion of tho material from which farms are developed. " Assuming the substantial correctness of the estimates of area by tho Department of Agriculture, and that home requirements will be such as to employ 3*15 acres per capita, the answer to the question, When will the farmer be prosperous ? resolves itself into a calculation as simple as the following : — January, 1891. a, population Acres. Acres, of 72,1100,000 will require in staple crops an area of .. 220,800,000 Area now employed in growing *uch crops .. 211,000,000 Additions to bo made to such area in four years .. 12,000,000 223,000,000 Acreage deficit, Jan., 1894 3,800,000 "This deficit should be sufficient to neutralise any possible under-estimate of the area now in cultivation. "Does not the evidonce adduced show that before this decade is half spent, all the products of the farm will be required at good prices, that lands will appreciate greatly in value, and that the American farmer will enter upon an era of prosperity, the unlimited continuance of which is assured by the exhaustion of the arable areas ?"