THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 1888.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXV, Issue 9217, 21 November 1888, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 1888.

♦ Word lias been wired to us that the King of the Belgians holds the opinion that the European situation is full of danger, and it is highly probable that a good many other political personages over there arc of the same opinion. According to current appearances— which, however, are not always to be depended on—there is a black look out for every little sovereign in Europe, and much more than that, there may happen a total breakdown of one of the half-dozen leading European States, and the partial breakdown of another, with a complete disappearance of the present balance of power. In face of such prospects the existing European situation may well be considered full of danger, but then the unexpected often spoils current appearances. M. do Giers is now at the head of foreign affairs at St. Petersburg, and there is again unmistakably to the front the practical alliance which he and Prince Bismarck arranged a couple of years ago between Russia and Germany for accomplishing the particular designs of the one Government in the west and of the other in the east of Europe. The understanding was that to assist Germany to have her way in the west Russia was to give no help to France, while Germany was similarly to stand aloof from Austria, so that Russia might get her own way in the Balkan quarter. There is no denying the nature of the agreement, for it was revealed plainly enough in the comments of both the German and Russian press, when the public opinion of the two countries, as expressed by the press, strongly refused to endorse any such agreement—which in consequence was laid by on the shelf, and was heard no more of for a period. Since then, however, the Russian journals have been pretty well muzzled on the subject, and the opposition in Germany seems to have been talked over and smoothed down, and now the alliance of the Governments at Berlin and St. Petersburg stands out more distinctly than before. There is reason to believe that the German Chancellor has retired for a while from at least the active leadership of affairs, and as he is reported to have put it at a press interview " the Emperor is now his own Chancellor." It may be that they are not entirely in accord, and indeed it is highly probable that the new Emperor's round of visits, performed or promised, to all European sovereigns, is not liked by the old statesman. Instead of being serviceable at the present juncture, he may consider it just the reverse. Two of those visits, namely, to St. Petersburg and Rome, we are told, he specially disapproved, and the reasons are intelligible. Russia and Germany are natural rivals, and the present temporary alliance or agreement between them for accomplishing certain objects is really not between the two nations, but only their Governments. And. the visit just now of the new Kaiser to the Czar may simply have the effect of stirring up again the antipathy of the Old Russian party to their half German Government in St. Petersburg, and their distrust of its foreign policy which was so demonstratively exhibited a couple of years back. In fact, we already hear that General Gourko, who seems to inherit the mantle of the impetuous Skobeloff, is already making fiery speeches in his command on the frontier, declaring that "Russian soldiers know the road to Berlin as well as to Vienna." The Emperor William's visit to Rome was perhaps still less agreeable to Prince Bismarck's plans. Rome contains the Vatican as well as the Quirinal, and it was therefore necessary to have a meeting with the Pope as well as with the King of Italy. The circumstance has eventuated in a revival of the question of the Pontiff's temporal power, and although the Emperor is reported to have spoken against it, the matter is very un pleasing to the Italian Government. This is untoward, because Germany counts on the co-operation of Italy against France, and a telegram dated Rome, November 16, says that "The German military stall' has warned the Italian authorities that their principal object in mobilising the army should be to gather promptly 300,000 men in the valley of the Po." And the untowardness extends still further. Austria believes that notwithstanding- her position in a "Triple Alliance" she is sacrificed by the German Government, but she still reckons on an ally in Italy, as, always adverse to Muscovite ambition. At the same time, however, the Austrian Government is an obedient son of the Latin Church, and expects to be aided against Russia's Pansclavic designs by the Pope's influence over the Sclavic populations which belong to his Church. Naturally, therefore, the Ministry in Vienna have expressed much irritation about the revival at this juncture of the Temporal Power question. They want as allies both the Italian Government and the Pope, but

if these two adversaries are to be in active hostility, it is plain that Austria cannot get tae help of the one without losing that of the other. Of course Russia hastens to avail of her opportunity in all this, and has forwarded assurances of her readiness to stand by the Vatican on the Temporal Power dispute. It is not too much to say that in such delicate international matters the Imperial tour has entangled the web of Bismarckian policy. As even sovereigns and statesmen are beginning to openly say, "the European situation is full of danger." There is a twofold danger—in the west and in the east. If Germany and Italy combined are to attack France with overpowering forces, and if she be overpowered, then there is little doubt that she will be shorn of her frontier provinces on each side, and be crippled as a great Power. And if Russia, not minding Constantinople at present, should march on Vienna, and with the Pansclavic banner displayed, how would things turn out 1 As for the free Sclavic States, it is significant that King Milan of Servia, who has been hitherto notably influenced from Vienna, is reported to have just changed sides, receiving counsel only from St. Petersburg. As for the Sclavs within the Austrian Empire, even a Bishop of the Latin Church, a couple of months ago, publicly advocated the Pansclavic idea, for which he was censured both by his Emperor and by the Pope. If Russia should be able to overrun Austria'sSclavic provinces the German provinces of the Hapsburgs would be immediately annexed by Germany, and so the Austrian Empire would disappear. Such are the dangers east and west in Europe to the present balance of power. But all that may be baffled by the unexpected. There is really no knowing. For instance, Prince Bismarck has a long head, and yet his plans are obviously aggrandising Russia still more than his own nation. He foresaw not the development Pansclavism is so soon acquiring was to strengthen the Muscovite in the big h'ght with Germany in the coming