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THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, APRIL 34, 1888.

Whether the much-expected European war is about to break out, or to continue indefinitely postponed, who can guess ? There is reason to believe that the longest-headed of European statesmen, or those deepest in the secret diplomacy of the day, feel no certainty whatever about it. There are so many wheels within wheels, such various counterbalancing circumstances to be token into account, that they may be quite as doubtful as anybody else of what is coming. Winter is over in Europe, and spring also is drawing to a close, and yet the fighting to which the inclement weather was a barrier, has not yet begun. But even from this point of view thero is nothing re-assur-ing of peace, for in the particular quarter whore tho war would commence—namely, along the dividing lino between the Russian and Austrian Empires, and in tho region of the lower Danube, tho seasons have a more extremo temperature than they possess in Western Europe in the same latitudes. While tho summers are hotter, the winters are longer and more severe, and even when winter is past, the melted snow and floods render military operations difficult in March and sometimes in April too. Very likely the warpath is still shut up, and therefore the fact that hostilities have not yet broken out cannot be regarded as an augury ono way or othor. There are some obvious circumstances which may prevent the war, whilo on the other hand some recent occurrences tend to confirm the expectation of it.

One of these is the continued movement of Russian troops towards Gali cia and the Danube, — the further augmentation of the immense masses that were encamped there during the winter. It has been often said that Russia could not go to war because of the condition of her exchequer, and the difficulty of getting loans abroad. But ere now countries invaded by her armies have been made to bear the expenses; and within the empire itself, as we pointed out some time ago, funds might be largely forthcoming on urgent occasion. We referred to the ecclesiastical treasures, the vast amount of gold, silver, and precious stones possessed by the elm relies, and which the Czar, as the religious as well as political chief, might on occasion call for in the cause of " Holy Russia f and late advices say that this ecclesiastical property is being already, to some extent, drawn upon for the military outlay. Another circumstance which seems to indicate European war is the recall of the large Italian force which was sent against the Abyssinians only a few months back. The reason assigned is the unhealthiness of the climate at the approach of summer; but it is impossible to take that explanation. The Italian Government have had for the last couple of years a naval station on the Abyssinian coast, and they must have known all about the climate when they despatched thither, at great cost, a powerful expedition, equipped with the newest artillery and other appliances. ' It was, of course, intended that the army should not linger on the unhealthy sea coast, where it could deal no serious blow at' the Negus, as the Abyssinian monarch is called. It must have been intended to push inland, where, at no long distance from the sea, the country becomes elevated and salubrious- The sudden change of mind, the abrupt and otherwise unintelligible bringing back of the army, must be construed as bespeaking new developments in the political situation. It looks as if the.ltalian Government believe European war close at hand, and that they want to have all their troops available, and bp free of outside entanglements, though comparatively petty. It is quite possible that a military dictator, provided he be a competent one, may prove the best thing for France at a time when she is menaced by Germrny and Italy combined, and when Russia, some time ago regarded as her ally, would be fully engaged with Austria and other adversaries in the Balkan direction. The interests of France have been strangely mismanaged by her - Republican Ministers ever since Gambetta started the Tunis enterprise, which transformed Italy from a friend into an enemy. There is at last at the head of the Republic, in M. Sadi-Carnot, a statesman who commands general esteem —a grandson of that Carnot who was known as the " organiser of victory"'—a man illustrious for his true patriotism as well as rare ability. It might have been better for France if his descendant were at the head of affairs a little sooner than a few months ago, but the position of the country must now be considered a crisis, and there ai - e signs that the national instinct begins to recognise that a military dictator is what is wanted. True, a dictator is sometimes a dangerous personage for the Republic he is appointed to guide, and it seems there was an affray a few days ago in the streets of Paris, between the students who, fresh from their classic studies, are always stern Republicans, and the numerous admirers of General Boulanger. The students, however, might have recollected that it was the custom of Republican Rome, whenever

war impended, to choose a Dictator. Boulanger, who won popularity by the improved efficiency to which he has brought the army, appears to be an able soldier, and a man of capacity, and if really such he may prove to be the fittest chief for France-at-the--present juncture. Even if ho should then cherish the imperial ambition, essay the part played by a Bonaparte and by a Caesar, the nation as a whole might not greatly object. Fiance has had al. forms of Government, and makes and unmakes Governments with such facility that she does not seem any longer to be greatly concerned about the particular form. A successful Dictator might easily make himself Emperor, but as for establishing his dynasty, no dynasty can ever again rule in France. But although on the European horizon the clouds gather, they may be scattered again. The war would have first to break out in the East, but the organs of the Old Russian, or National party, cry out against the understanding between their Government and Prince Bismarck, and that those journals can venture to be so outspoken is proof of the new strength of their party. Then Austro - Hungary, feeling that her interests are thrown aside by the Chancellor, and over which there is much anger at Vienna and Pesth, may perhaps counterbalance his move by an understanding of her own with the Muscovite. In fact, it is the uncertainty about enemies and allies, and the arrangements of to-day being reversed to-morrow, that alone serves to keep the peace.

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Permanent link to this item

https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newspapers/NZH18880424.2.20

Bibliographic details

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXV, Issue 9036, 24 April 1888, Page 4

Word Count
1,128

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, APRIL 34, 1888. New Zealand Herald, Volume XXV, Issue 9036, 24 April 1888, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, APRIL 34, 1888. New Zealand Herald, Volume XXV, Issue 9036, 24 April 1888, Page 4