THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 5, 1887.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXIV, Issue 8065, 5 October 1887, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 5, 1887.

Whatever may be advanced in support of an Atkinson-Vogel Coalition it certainly cannot be said that the proposal has its foundation in the exigencies of the Opposition, The boot, in fact, is on the other leg. After a careful survey of the election returns we find that of the European members 52, namely, 31 in the North Island and 21 in the South Ireland were returned pledged to oppose the Stout-Vogel Government, while of Ministerial supporters there were returned 37, namely, 29 in the South Island and 8 in the North Island. In addition to the above, two of the Otago members were elected on. the independent ticket. These, with the four Maori members, make up the entire number of representatives. Of the Maori members three were elected in opposition to the Government and, if each party were assigned one of the independent members, the total strength of the Opposition would then be 56, while that of the Ministerialists would.be 39, giving a majority of 17 to the Opposition. Wherein then, it may well be asked, lies the necessity for a coalition movenlfcnt 1 It may safely be asserted that in the whole history of Representative Government there is not to be found an instance in which, with such a decisive majority, the victorious party were asked to consider the expediency of forming a combination. The absurdity of the proposal will at once become apparent if we suppose, as the outcome of the elections, the positions of parties to have been reversed. Had the result of the appeal to the country, made at the I instance of the Ministry, consequent upon their defeat on a no-confidence motion, been to place the Ministerial party in a majority of 17, would a proposal for a coalition have been heard of then'! Most assuredly no such movement would ever in such a case have been dreamed of by the Ministerial leaders ; and, if it had proceeded from the defeated Opposition, it would simply have been laughed to scorn. Why then should the Opposition, in whose favour the country has so decisively declared, be expected to entertain a proposition which, in their circumstances, the Ministry would have scouted 1 In the tactics of political warfare there is certainly no reason discoverable for paying the slightest heed to a suggestion so manifestly at variance with all known precedent. A plain issue as between the Ministry and the Opposition was put before the country, and the electors have unmistakably pronounced in favour of the Opposition and against the Ministry, and the people have now a right to expect that the Opposition leaders will endeavour to provide an Administration in room of the one condemned, and give effect to the popular will, according to long established rule. In view of the results of the election, any one who advises the adoption of an opposite course can only be regarded as a traitor to public privilege. In support, however, of this most unprecedented coalition proposal, it is alleged that the victory of the Opposition is illusive, that the members returned to effect the overthrow of the Stout-Vogel Administration are lacking in cohesion on other questions of policy, that the resignation of the Ministry in consequence of the Premier's defeat will dissolve the tie that bound them together, and that Sir Julius Vogel, the strongest man in the late Cabinet, has still a following numerically stronger and more compact than that of any Opposition leader. It is necessary to examine these assertions to ascertain what force they possess. Impartially viewed they can only at the outset be regarded as assumptions, and in the end it will be found that they really amount to nothing more. By far the boldest of these assumptions is that which consists in the claim for Sir Julius Vogel' of a following more effective and loyal than any Opposition leader can reckon on. The number of Sir Julius' faithful adherents is estimated by the most sanguine of his friends at not more than twenty-five ; while, as against this, Major Atkinson, who is admittedly recognised as the general leader of the Opposition, is alleged to be without any personal following at all. It is plausibly contended that, during the election contest, Opposition candidates, while pledging themselves to vote for the expulsion from office of the Stout-Vogel Ministry, refrained from acknowledging Major Atkinson as their leader. This has just enoughtif truth in it to furnish ] a pretext for fallacious reasoning. Nothing is more certain than that the reservation thus manifested was to obviate the prejudice which had been created by the " Continuous Ministry" j cry, and that it was invariably accom-1 panied with an expressed willingness ! to follow any leader the Opposition might collectively approve of. It follows, therefore, that the leader who may be thus agreed upon, j whether he bo Major Atkinson or any other member, may rely with a reasonable measure of confidence on a united support from ail the candidates elected on the Opposition programme. Certainly not more than this can be affirmed of Sir Julius Vogel's notable 25. And of these it is even doubtful | whether any one can confidently affirm j this much ; for assuredly it cannot be | asserted that the Ministerial candidates j were elected to follow Sir Julius Vogel j

any more than the Opposition candidates were to follow Major Atkinson. In the one case they announced themselves as supporters of the Government, in the other of the Opposition, and there is no valid reason for claiming on behalf of the former a loyalty to Sir Julius Vogel which cannot with equal force be urged in support of the same fueling being entertained towards Major Atkinson. If any difference there be, we have no hesitation in saying that it is on the side of the latter that the advantage lies. Admitting, for argument's sake, that the tie which bound the component elements of both parties has been somewhat relaxed by the 'resignation of the Ministry in consequence of the Premier's defeat, it may safely be maintained that the disintegration thus caused will be greater in the Ministerial following than in that of the Opposition. This, indeed, is virtually conceded by the coalition advocates. In enforcing their proposal so much as they do, by pointing to Sir Julius Vogel's compact phalanx of twenty-five, they admit that the section of the Ministerial party which looked to Sir Robert Stout as its leader, is sure to secede from Sir Julius, and this belief is confirmed by the attempts which Mr. Ballance is reported to be already making to rally around him that portion of the Cabinet's shattered forces. On the other hand, the Ministry's resignation cannot be expected to have the same disruptive effect in the ranks of the Opposition,. There is, at all events, no sign of it as yet. The meeting of the Opposition, which will probably be held to-day, is likely to have an opposite result, and, at any rate, will serve to disclose its power and measure of cohesion.

It may beand indeed, has been said—that the large majority of the Canterbury, Westland, and Nelson 1 representatives, will (irmly adhere to Sir Julius Vogel, as their only hope of securing the completion of the Midland Railway; that they will, therefore, steadfastly oppose any Ministry in which he is not included ; and that the discontented among the Opposition will naturally gravitate towards his leadership, until his following is so strong as to undermine the stability of any Cabinet that may now be formed. It is possible, however, and in fact, very likely, that this selfish and dictatorial attitude, which it is predicted the Canterbury party will assume, may have an effect quite the opposite of that alleged. If their tactics be to impose Sir Julius upon the colony as an administrator of its affairs, despite the condemnation of his policy which the electors have so unequivocally pronounced, the resentment thus produced will only tend to make the representatives from all other parts of the country combine the more resolutely to resist such unprincipled and unconstitutional conduct. The assumptions on which the proposal for a coalition of the Cabinet which Major Atkinson is now engaged in constructing with Sir Julius Vogel and his adherents is urged, are thus found to be utterly baseless, and the only consistent and safe course for the Opposition to take is to rely on its own resources for the obtaining of a strong and stable Government.