THE POLITICAL POSITION.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXIV, Issue 8065, 28 September 1887, Page 5

THE POLITICAL POSITION.

THE STATE OF PARTIES.

[BY TELEGRAPH. — OWtf CORRESPONDENT], Wkllington, Tuesday. Ik order that what follows may be completely intelligible it is necessary for your readers to recur to my previous telegram, which describes the relation of Sir J. Vogel, separately from his colleagues, to the recent elections, and to take into acccnnt three leading aspects of the present political situation (1) that the defeat of Sir R. Stout has not only disrupted the Government, but obliterated what was hitherto known as the Stonfc-Vogel party; (2) that there is now in existence what is denominated a • Vogel party, which consists of the personal following of the Treasurer, and is said to number about 20 ; (3) that the result of the eleotions has been to obliterate the distinction known as "Ministerialists,"and to release all thu supporters of the Stout-Vogel Government from their alliegianoe. The returns have come in so irregularly that they are not at the present writing completed. I ast night, at a late hoar, only two were received from Auckland. At five o'clock this evening it was not known whether the Hon. Mr. Bryce was defeated at Waitotara, and the fact has been announced in a somewhat uncertain manner. The faot, however, that. Mr. Bryce is no longer to be regarded as a political power is also an important element in the situation, and should not be forgotten. 1 went through the returns this evening with Dr. Newman, and he calculate* the reault of the elections as an absolute majority of 16 for the Opposition as against the Government; but this majority may be increased to 20. According to the returns received by the Poat the supporters of the Government were estimated at 36 and the Opposition at SS, which gave the Opposition a majority of 22. It appears to have been calculated upon a contingency that has not happened ; but it is sufficiently near to corroborate the statement made to me, and already transmitted to you, on the authority of Dr. Newman, that the Opposition might possibly have such a large majority, of course the friends of the Government read the returns altogether differently. I spent some time this forenoon with a well-known supporter of the Government, and he could not make the minority of the Government to be more than eleven, but at that hour of the. day there were many returns to come in, and the gentleman admitted that the Government was in a minority of from 11 to 13. The latest intelligence to hand is that Sir Robert Stout will probably arrive hero on Friday next. I have heard from a good source that it is his intention to resign at once. The Stout-Vogel Government will then have become a matter of history, although the members of it returned to Parliament may bold office until their successors shall have been appointed. A circumstance has been discussed here which has led to considerable obscurity as to the actual position of Sir Julius Vogel. You will remember that when the Stout-Vogel Government emerged from the evolution of parties at the commencement of the last Parliament, Sir Julius Vogel was appointed Colonial Treasurer, "with precedence" of the other members of the Cabinet. What does that mean ? Iβ he to succeed to tbe position vacated by Sir R. Stout's defeat. The morning paper here suggests the possibility that the Governor would therefore send for Sir Julius now, now that Sir Robert iafunctus officio. But, I believe, " with precedence'' only was intended to mean that Sir Julius Vogel in respect to business on the order paper (he being an invalid) should have precedence on occasions when consideration for his health did not permit him to remain in the Houee. It was true, aa I informed you, that Sir J. Vogel regarded the possible defeat of the Premier and the Native Minister as an event which would place him in a more advantageous position than he could hope otherwise to occupy. The actual defeat of the Premier has brought matters to nearly the same position plus the Native Minister, who is not yet extinguished, and would have to be dealt with in some way or other. The Minister of Justice is removed from troubling, for it is worth remembering that Mr. Tole announced, during the election campaign, that he followed Sir Robert Stout, not Sir Julius Vogel. The importance of this is considerable. The fact will appear when I tell you that it' has been pointed out to me to-day that tiie personal followers of Sir Robert Stout would again range themselves on the side of the House which Sir George Grey might oconpy. This would possibly take place as one of the exigencies oi the process of selection through which the House of Representatives would pans before a strong or a stable Government can be found. The names of the possible Greyite section were given to me with that of Mr. Tole at the head of them. Some of them, however, are scarcely in a position, having regard to their constituencies, to join aa alliance of mere sentiment. I refer more particularly to suoh men as Mr. W. C. Smith (Woodville), Mr. Feldwick (Invercargill), Messrs. Guinness, O'Oonor, and others of the West Coast. This circumstance must also be taken into into account, that with the exception of the Canterbury members who avowed their allegiance to the Treasurer, the other supporters of the Government followed Stout or Ballanoe, or both. These will be act free, and among these are to Lβ found, some men having a leaning towards Home of the declared oppositionists of Sir G. Grey. Tuis section will not be sufficiently numerous to be powerful, but I am told they will be anti-Vogel to the marrow. Sir G. Grey ia very reticent aa to his own interpretation of the situation, but he can only imperfectly conceal his interest and concern in what is passing. The view specifically taken by Sir Julius Vogel was in effect this, that the Government would be defeated by a narrow majority. Assuming the defeat of the Premier, he could point to hfs Canterbury phalanx and his West Coast backers, and tell the Governor that he was strong enough to reconstruct the Ministry. He would trust; to the supporters of the Government to help him. It was possible, even probable, tha.t the retiring Premier might take a similar view, and advise His Excellency to send for Sir Julius to carry out this scheme ; but the large majority against; the Government has disconcerted this calculation by removing the materials which tbe Treasurer would have to manipulate from. His immediate influence has still a following of say, twenty members or thereabout, and with these his friends say he will upon important occasions be able to dictate terms to whatever Government may be in power. It is now thought that when the Premier resigns on Friday he will advise the Governor to send for Major Atkinson, although I learn that it was his intention, in view ot the present crisis, to give an alternative name, and that the name of the hon. Mr. Bryce was also to be laid before the Governor as that of a member of the House likely to form a stable and even a strong Government. This probability is no longer a factor in the estimation of the political situation. When the Atkinson Government resigned in 1884, Major Atkinson had a following of at least 30 members of the House, and he thought it necessary to resign. Sir Julius Vogel's following of 20 will scarcely better serve him in view of the members elected to oppose the Stout-Vogel Government, a considerable proportion of them being really elected to oppose the Vogelian influence which formed the strongeet characteristic of that Government. It is, therefore, improbable that Sir Julius would be able to accomplish what Major Atkinson failed to do in 18S4 under more favourable circumstances. The power which Sir J, Vogel may exercise as the personal leader of a section of the Houee must be regarded from a different standpoint. It is not thought for a moment that Sir Julius would ask his followers, or that they would consent if he did, to become Parliamentary obstruct'-* , ' Were either possibility conceivable the other sections of the House would have every reason to combine against them, and at no time could they have a majority. Any combination at preeent practicable would be powerful enough for this purpose, for the Parliamentary leaders of such sections would be M»jor Atkinson, Sir G. Grey, Sir John Hall, all of whom cover such a wide field of opinion as would attach the younger men of the Home to any side rather than that of Sir Julius.

Now I learn from excellent authority that the present majority against the Government has been brought about by the young rather than the old politicians, and they would accept any leader rather than Sir Vogel in the present posture of affairs. The fact that the Hon. Mr. Rolleston, as well as the Hon. Mr. Bryce, has been defeated brings nearer the necessity for new men in the Council of the colony. The namea of the

following members of the Honee sentativee are freely mentioned here as pog. sible factors in the issues of new arrangements that may be evolved from the present orieis : -Soobie Mackenzie, G. Fisher, A. K. Newman, J. S. Menteath, and some others. Sir John Hall, now that Mr. Bryce has die- ' appeared, appears a factor of more importance than before, because it is quite possible hie Canterbury influence may absorb some of the voting power oa which Sir J. Vogel is said to reckon. I heard repeated to«day what I had previously informed you of, that political feeling was sufficiently strong among those who formed the majority of the elected of the country to prevent Sir Julius assuming the role of political dictator, seeing that an attempt of that kind would be involved with peril to any icfinenoe whatever that he might afterwards aim at possessing. I understand that Major Atkinson will be in Wellington this week. It is probable that Sir John Hall will come to Wellington this week. 1 believe there is a desire on the part of all the leaders of the House, Sir George Grey inoSsc.sc!, tr> meet and discuss the present position ri arlaire. Until after that has taken , ; j nothing with certainty can be affirmed of the intention of those who are likely to lead tha different sections of the House in the new Parliament.