THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. THURSDAY, MARCH 24, 1887.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXIV, Issue 7904, 24 March 1887, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. THURSDAY, MARCH 24, 1887.

In a recent issue reference was made ! by us to the report of the Royal Commission appointed by the British Parliament to inquire into tho depression of trade and industry. While inquiring into the causes of the languishing condition into which all kinds of enter - terprise had fallen, the Commissioners found reason to oonfirm the view previously held by those who had studied the question, that the depression was one of price rather than of production. The production was, in fact, in excess of the genuine demand ; or, in other words, the volume of trade might have been maintained at its previous dimensions, but only at prices that would not pay. This, of course, meant an advantage to the consumer, though not exactly in the sense commonly understood. Those who profited most from this state of things were the classes who derive their income from foreign investments, or from property not directly connected with productive industries. With undiminished incomes the low price of commodities in general meant for these diminished Outlay. With the working classes the effect was different. For though at first they also would experience the benefit derivable from low prices, these •must eventually lead to the reduction of wages and, at the least, tho partial cessation of employment. While, however, tho former of these classes wero benefited by the depression, and the latter profited therefrom after a temporary fashion, the crippling effect of unremunerative prices fell primarily and most severely on those who had invested their capital in the several industries. But it was not to be expected that these could continue the old rate of production at a loss and the natural consequence was a general diminution of stocks. This, of course, would even-, tually produce a reaction, and this in turn would increase the demand. For, as has been well said, " during a long period of depression everybody is looking for lower prices, and only buy for the moment; when we get to the bottom people buy more eagerly and extensively, and trade improves with proportionate rapidity." In this way the depression—brought about by a variety of causes, but mainly by over-production, and over-corn petition—which has for some years prevailed in the United Kingdom, is believed to have reached its bottom; and, according to recent reports, trade is giving signs of recovery. At all events an impression to this effect very generally prevails ; and in order to ascertain the real facts of the case, the proprietors of the Pall Mall Budget recently placed themselves in communication with experienced men in tho leading departments of trade, who might therefore be regarded as authorities. Representatives of tho great oarriers of the country—the railway companies—of the coal and iron industries, of the shipping interests, of investments, of worsted dress goods, of chemicals, and of tobacco, dec, were written to, with the request that they should state what evidence of returning prosperity had come under their immediate notice. And, with the exception of those representing the shipping interest, they one and all express themselves as assured, for reasons which they severally state, that the period of depression may be held to have passed, and that restoration of confidence in the investing and trading public is all that is necessary to make commerce and trade of aid kinds experience a healthy turn and a steady flow. In the estimation of them all, a good deal depends upon the state of the political atmosphere, the firmness of the Government, and the condition" of the Continent. War, it is admitted, would upset all their reckonings; and though in many instances its effect on trade would be advantageous, there is always the risk of the vigour thus produced being followed by a corresponding stagnation. For this reason, they would prefer that the revival in commerce and industry should come about in the natural course of things ; as, its conditions being then of a normal character, it would have a better pledge of permanency. As illustrative of the general consensus of opinion on the part of the authorities consulted, and to show that they are not without reason sanguine as to the future of British trade, it will be instructive to quote briefly some of

the views expressed by them. is," says one, " a feeling in the air' that trade is recovering, And this of itself helps to bring about the desired result. My opinion is that 1887 will in many respects be a considerably more prosperous year than its immediate predecessors." » "With respect to the worsted dress goods trade, Sir Jacob Behrens—who gave evidence before the Royal Commission above referred to—speaks thus :—" The trade of Bradford and district ie decidedly better than it has been for years past. Altogether, I believe that the year 1886 has been a satisfactory one for the wool industry, even with regard to profits for the manufacturers, while the working classes have been well employed." As indicating the way in which railway traffic becomes a test of the condition of business, the general manager of the Great Western, Mr. Grierson, says:—"To a much greater extent than has been the case for many years we find a concurrence of opinion on the part of the people in all the districts we pass through, that things are a little better, and that there will be an improvement in trade." This authority speaks, it will be observed, with the caution of a Scotchman ; but the Chairman of the London, Chatham, and Dover, who, however, may be a Scotchman, too, judging from his name, comes out much more strongly on this point. " Judging," he says, " from the improvement in the past year over 1885, and the general indications' one can see, there will be revived trade. There has been an increased passenger Continental traffic, and that shows a much easier state of things throughout the country. With respect to our local lines, things are also looking better. The traffic in season tickets to the suburb.? of London, which fell away for a time, has taken a fresh start, and this, I think shows that people are a little better off. The best general test, however, is the Continental, for when people are poor they economise in the easiest place, and that is spending money in travelling." But perhaps the moat suggestive of the testimonies is that supplied by the authority consulted on investments. "My personal experience of business last year, remarks Mr. Hume Webster, was that it showed a gradual improvement during nearly the whole year. The improvement was not by leaps and bounds, but a steady increase that augured well for the future. It was also brought prominently under my notice by the fact that our friends readily entered into engagements for the development of ! properties both at home and abroad, where their investments would have to be locked up for some time before producing any return. This was in marked contrast to the previous year, when no one would ento into any engagements 8a ve those from day to day." These independent and variously expressed views, proceeding from persons largely engaged in different' forms of trade, all point to the conclusion, and cumulatively serve to corroborate the reports which have reached us otherwise, that a genuine revival in trade and industry is being experienced , in the United Kingdom. They serve, j moreover, to strengthen the hope that! this improvement will become general, and that the British colonies will all participate in the benefits to be thereby conferred. The impulse given to commerce at the heart of the Empire is sure, before long, to reach even its remotest limits; and thus the belief which has recently been gaining ground in New Zealand, that a cycle of good years must be close at hand, receives a welcome confirmation. ,