THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. MONDAY, MAY 31, 1886.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXIII, Issue 7651, 31 May 1886, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. MONDAY, MAY 31, 1886.

Rkcent London telegrams seems to indicate the prevalence in political circles of an impression that- the second reading of the Home Rule Bill will be carried by a narrow majority. The grounds on which this impression is based are not however very patent. It cannot indeed be said that the late meeting of the Liberal party furnished any warrant for such an expectation. On the contrary, that meeting may be considered to have materially diminished the prospect of success which may have previously existed. Prior to the holding of that caucus, Mr. Chamberlain appears to have published a letter for the purpose of effecting a re-union of the Liberal party, and to have expressed the hope that, by mutual concession and forbearance, this end might be gained. But Mr. Gladstone's imperiousness has, it is to be feared, frustrated that object, and hardened the opposition to his measures of the Moderate Liberals who follow Lord Harrington, and the Radicals who adhere to Mr. Chamberlain. One would have thought that a more politic and conciliatory course would have at this critical stage been adopted by the-Chief of the Cabinet, than that of forcing these his former supporters to become his sworn foes. But, with a foolhardiness which may cost him dear, he elected to make them understand that he did not desire a renewal of their friendship. The invitation to attend the caucus was so worded it seems as to exclude the Moderate Liberals, who, in consequence, did not

put in an appearance. Such conduct was the more extraordinary that the professed object of the meeting was to give Mr. Gladstone an opportunity of announcing such concessions respecting his Irish proposals as would probably remove the objections entertained towards them by many of his friends. The only apparent way of accounting for this impolitic course is to suppose either that Mr. Gladstone's pride got the mastery of his prudence, or that a feeling of over-confidence had caused him to persuade himself that lie could dispense with the aid of his former allies. But, account for it as we may, it was obviously one of those political blunders which a politician of high spirit and unduly swayed by a consciousness of power is apt betimes to fall into, the consequences of which are always irremediable, and not unfrequer y rapid in their developement. In;'.. . J, one consequence of this grave mistake may be said to have been already realised in the accentuated form which it has given to the alienation of Sir. Chamberlain. After the letter which he published, and after acting as he bad done in concert with the Moderate Liberals, he, of course, could not atteiula meeting from which they were olJensively excluded ; and his absence accordingly, as also that of his friends, was intended to serve as a protest against the species of political ostracism employed. The result of the shortsighted policy which has thus given completeness to the disruption of the Liberal party will soon manifest itself in the altered balance of parties in the House of Commons. It will lead, in fact, to the formation of a new or fourth party in the House, composed of Moderate Liberals anil the more intelligent and influential portion of the Radicals. This party will considerably outnumber the Piirnellitcs, and not only neutralise these, but also occupy the position they have held hitherto, and control the legislation of either Mr. Gladstone and his followers on the one side, or that of the Conservatives on the other. And the destiny, moreover, of this Middle party will be to grow not merely in influence, but in numbers. Even after making allowance for the reported desertion of Mr. Chamberlain by the Radicals, it will he found that this able tactician will carry along with him a following considerable enough in all respects to secure, in conjunction with the followers of Lord Hartington, a vote which may probably be disastrous to Mr. Gladstone's measures and his administration as well. And not only so ; but, should the division on these Irish proposals be of such an indecisive character as to necessite a fresh appeal to the country, it is certain that this party which Mr. Gladstone's arbitrary action has created will return to Parliament with a large accession to its numbers. For it cannot be doubted that in the present House this party more than any other represents the real views and feeling of the people on the question now under debate. It is the best exponent of th popular aversion to the Irish polic>, and so generally is this recognised by i even the organs of the Liberal party, that 110 room for questioning the accuracy of the statement remains. This is, in fact, the reason why Sir. Gladstone is adverse to submitting that question to the country, and has hitherto abstained from giving the slightest indication of his intention to ask for a dissolution in the event of his proposals being rejected, but, on the contrary, has manifested a wish to have the principle of Home Rule affirmed by getting the measure read a second time

preparatory to the recasting of it during the recess. This is also the reason why he has modified his intention of excluding Irish members from the Imperial Parliament, before the division on the second reading of the measure comes oli". Seeing little, if any, chance of securing a favourable vote without such a concession, he has made a virtue, of necessity and offered it beforehand as his only means of escaping defeat. But, when carefully looked into, it will be found that the very meagreness of the concession, coupled with the ungracious and highly impolitic manner in which he has made it, is but little calculated to reduce the risks to which his measure was exposed. To admit Irish members to discussions oil Imperial subjects, but apparently without any potential voice in the settlement of even these subjects, would give to the Imperial Parliament such a mongrel character that it is not at all likely to load to the Bill being in any material degree viewed anywhere with greater favour than it was before. Despite, therefore, the prognostications of its friends to the contrary, the probabilities are that, all things considered, the Home Rule measure will be rejected through the uncompromising character of Mr. Gladstone's own tactics.