BEADSTUFFS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume I, Issue 288, 14 October 1864, Page 5

BEADSTUFFS.

We (u'ke the following artii-lo from the Hohnrf Town J/crr/ny of tin- 10th \ilt... for a copy of which wo arc indebted to Oiipt. Clarke of the s.s. • Salamander.' which vessel arrived yesterday from Newcastle. N.S.W. A communication lias been forwarded to us from Sydney mi the prospects of the wheat ami (lour markets for '.ho remainder of the yeur. Tlmt communication has, we observe, nlrciidy appeared in one. <>f the Sydney journals, but tlint should bo no bar to its formal notice here, although we do not give it in the exact form in which it has been sent. It is a reply to n former letter on this subject by Mr. JUcnnoii, of that ■ city, and goes very ntuch into details. Mr. ISenn<:tt hail, it appeal's, assumed the existonee of u very l.>rge stock of wheat and (lour in Sydney at the end of the last year, and thinks that the stock on hand at tiie enil of the-present will equal, if not exceed, the whole of the quantity imported. To that it is replied : — If ho will, however, refer to the government statis-tii-s, ho will find that the population of the colony in ISO;; w;is 37S,(Kj'.l, which at the government estimate of 7.V bushels per head, including seed and damaged am in, would require 71,051 tons to supply our wants for the year. Wu produced in 1802, which would bo available for the consumption of 1fc133, 2(5,373 tons, and imported during ISO 3, 27.551 tons ; wu exported during that year 7.400 tons, leaving- an apparent deficiency of 2-1,233 tons. This, however, was partially provided for by the surplus from the previous year. It is a well established fact that we commonctxl this present year without any stock whatever, and those engaged "in tlu- trade are aware that in the month of Februarv of this year there was not a. week's supply in the "whole city of Sydney ; nnd if we had not received nearly 3000 tons from Adelaide within three days holders might have charged any priuo they pleased for this important necessary of life. This disposes of Jlr. Heunett's iirst assertion, because if we commenced (lie year with very large stocks it is not possible such stocks could have vanished in one solitary month, His next statement as to the probable quantity remaining on hand at the close of this rear, is not so easily answered, as it will depend "entirely on the quantity that comes in from foreign sources, which may b? a thousand tous or twenty thousand tons ; although ilr. Bennett states that the whole quantity imported throughout the year will remain in stock. 1 will, however, just look at our present position, and see how far this is likely to prove correct. The population lias increased, but we wiil tulic our requirements at the same as last year sav 70,000 tons. The colony grew very little last, year, and when the Government statistics are published, tliev will certainly not show over 20,000 tons. We have imported to tlie 30th June, 21,992 tons, in all sav 41.1)92 tons, which deducted from the quantity required loaves a balance of 28,008 tons. Let the above estimate be checked by actual facts, and it comes out thus: seventy thousand tons per annum would bo for six months thirty-five thousand tons— sav grown in the colony, which is now probably ail consumed, 20,000; imported .luring first six months 21 UO2, m all-11,002 tons, leaving stock on hand at 30th June 6.5U2 tons—being as nearly as possible what the stock really was. These calculations are made from Government statistics, and if correct, show a deficiency on the 30th June, of 28008 tons to ! b<! supplied during the lust six months of this year. ! "Where is this to come from ? Our total imports j during Juiv were 4232 tons, and for August 27(30 ! tons, nom 'which deduct, our exports of to 31st Au- | gust, I tOO tons —leaving a deiiciency of 2 1,225 tons ■ rtill required, and if this is correct—'of which I have j very little doubt—it is not the arrival of half-a-dozen ships from Chili or elsewhere that will supply ! our need.

8o fiiv those calculations have inspect to New South Wiilus alone, hut the other colonies aro Jiux-t taken in, and a bird's-iyo view is given of the probable wants of the whole. Of course, "Victoria figures largely in this, as one of the greatest consumers in tlio colonics of the soutl., and beginning with that coloiiy, the following are the conclusions arrived at ;— In 1861 the population of thut colony was 5-57,-14-1, and at the Government estimate of ~h bushels per head for all purposes, they would require at lo bushels to the Tons. ' tons tons 93,000 The colony grew in J 863 28,283 And imported during the li rst eix months of 1861 19,610 17,598 Leaving a deficiency on 30th .Tune 45,102 To this add jN'.S. "Wiilus delicieney on tunio dute '. 28,008 Brings out a to'al deficiency for the two colonics of 70,10 To supply this we have the Adelaide surplus on 30th June, estimated at 18,000 Leaving to be supplied from foreign sources 55,110 Of course we are now past two months of this period, and during thut lime have imported into Victoria 5,937 New South Wales 5,1 S3 11,110 Les« quantity from Adelaide, the whole being already deducted.. .0,000 — (5, U0 Brings down a deficiency on the Ist Sept. of tons 40,000

l*ut as this calculation ia based on the Government estimate of 7J- bueliels per head whereas some think 6 bushels nearer tho truth, wo will deduct 1 J bueliels per head for the whole population of Victoria and Nun- South Wnles, amounting to about 31,000 Which reduces tho estimated deficiency to 18,000 To which must bo milled the shipments now muking from Adelaide loJavivand Mauritius, therefore taken from us 1,000 Leaves a total deficiency 3 "i OOO Without taking into account the necessities of Queenshind or New Zeiihmd, which will lake at least 500 tons per week. Where then are we to look for all this quantity of tho stall' oflifc :- The present mail advice's from Knglnnd including whiit has alreaidv arrived tons... 3,000 And fruiii New 1'0rk...-...' • «l>o Tho ' Peter,' from Chili, just in, brings -11)0 And reports two barques loading, and possibly a third, say tu all I,'JOO California has little to spare, and tho prico quoted in telegrams bv tins mail, tinted lath July, of £18 for Hour, and Ss per bushel for wheal, will not allow any margin for prolit on shipments from that quarter, but say that we get 3,300 Shows a total only of. tons 6,700 Which deducted from 10,800 Leaves an absolute deficiency of tons 13,000 "Whether these calculations are reliable or not, wo cannot say, but we are assured that they have been compiled from the best, possible sources, unci they exhibit a depth of research which entitles them to more than ordinary consideration. At the same time.itniust be evident, that they proceed from the pen of ft gentleman, who lute no laiih in a declining market, and who may, for anything we know to the contrary, not be very "desirous'of having one. lint that docs not, we think, accord with the general wish. Still facts must be looked in the face, and we, therefore, give this gentleman's summarised account of what he believes to be the uctual condition of these colonies at the present moment: — "W'e shall no doubt, receive intelligence by the next mail of further shipments from England ton moderate extent, which will complete our expectations from that, source for the year ; and we may hope lor a lew more cargoes from Chili. 1 have carefully avoided taking or Now Zealand into the ciilculatioir, because 1 think the requirements of New South Wales and Victoria over estimated, and therefore 1 throw their wants in to complete the scale, but if you take the very lowest estimate of actual consumption, we need for—New South Wales 700, Victoria 1,3110, (Queensland MO, Now Zealand 3,000 =•5,000 tons per week, which, for four mouths, is tons 43,750 Deduct estimated stocks on hand — Un Ist Sept. in Melbourne - - 5,000 Sydney - - - 4,700 lirisbane - - 1,500 New Zealand - - 2,500 Adelaide surplus - 1-2,000 • 25,700 showing a deficiency on Ist Sept. of 18,0130 To supply which we have, only to arrive as far as we can see - - 0,700 Leaving still to be supplied - - 11,350 without it ton on hand at 31st December, in case of a late harvest, which it is now pretty certain will occur; and, therefore, add to our necessities the whole month of Jauuarv, s;iy 10,000 tons, thus making our total requirements Intjoml all that we expect—2l,3so to carry us on to the harvest. Une more paragraph must be added, and with this we close. Jt is as follows : —

SVf are therelore in n position of dependence this year even greater than wu were in JSSS, when Hour reached £55 per ton, and continued during the months of October, November, and December, at from £o5 to £-15, notwithstanding that in October of that year we had eight eargos from Chili, and one froiußatavia, and one iron, the United States ; in November, eleven cargoes from Chili, and two from California ; and in December, six cargoes from Chili, three from California, one from L'aleutla, and one from the United Males; bearing in all during those. three months, 4,050 tons Hour and 103,075 bushels wheat. 1 see by looking up the papers of that period, that the public were congratulated when the iirst few cargoes cuine in from Chili, that the scarcity was at an end, and prices likely to rule low for (lie rest of'the year, but the consumption was so strong that prices could not be kept down. "Whatever may be tho ease in Sydney or Melbourne, we hope they will be here. At nuy rate, we hope to be preserved from any attempts to rig the market, iWid force prices up beyond the actual necessities of the case.