EUROPE IN 1861.

New Zealander, Volume XVIII, Issue 1670, 19 April 1862, Page 5

EUROPE IN 1861.

[From the "Saturday Review,"] The dispute with America has naturally diverted attention from domestic and from Continental affairs, and yet it is probable that important changes may be impending both at home and abroad. The present Government so nearly represents the prevalent opinion of the country, that the uncertainty of its tenure of office is not uufrequently forgotten. A general distaste to political innovation has strengthened the party of resistance in almost every constituency, and consequently Opposition candidates have won the greater number of occasional elections ; but the bad judgment and unpopularity of the leaders of the party have hitherto neutralized "the constant iucrease in the number of their adherents. Since the accession of the present Government, Lord Derby has nominally gained votes enough to reverse the narrow majority which drove him from office in 1859; yet, in decisive divisions, his defeats are still incessantly renewed, and two-thirds of the House of Commons really desire to maintain Lord Palmerston in power. At the beginning of the last session, the leaders of the Opposition in both Houses gratuitously avowed opinions on Italian policy which were directly opposed to the feelings of the country. It is difficult to suppose that [cither Lord Derby or Mr. Disraeli was impelled by a strong conscientious conviction to denounce the unity and independence of Italy, nor is it easy to understand why they should have attacked the Ministers at the only impregnable point of their position. The explanation of the blunder is probably to be found in Mr. Disraeli's habitual passion for ostentations intrigues and trarsparent mysteries. It was thought that, in the close balance of parties, the ' Komsm Catholic members would be able to determine the majority, and accordingly the maintenance of the

I Pope's temporal power was proclaimed as a cardinal principal of English policy, in titter neglect of the antipathv with which Ultramontane doctriues are regarded by the bulk of the community. Mr. Disraeli will probablv continue his ingenious mistakes, nor is it likely that Lord Derbv will correct his habitual levity; but, with equal forces, it is almost impossible that some accident should not before long place victory within the reach of the Opposition. If Lord Palmerston retains his vigour, his tact and experience may baffle many attempts to overthrow him; but he has Mr. Gladstone at his side, as well as Mr. Disraeli in his front and the administration will scarcely survive another fanciful Budget. The extraordinary stagnation of domestic polities during the past year may perhaps render some chauge or commotion more probable in the next. In twelve months the Government has become neither stronger nor weaker—it has proposed no considerable measure, and it has been exposed to no formidable attack. Its stability still depends on the popularity of its chief, and Lord Palmerston's power cannot last for ever.

On the Continent, the wars which were confidently expected at the beginning of last year may not improbably break out in 1562. Events have not kept pace with political prophecy, but they have thus far followed precisely the course which was pointed out by careful observers. Italy and Hungary have still their quarrels with Austria to settle, and both of them are more formidable, in force orin acknowledged right,than when the conflict first was seen to be inevitable. A year ago, Francis 11, was still protected by the French fleet in the occupation of Gaeta, and the first Parliament which represented nearly the whole Peninsula had still to meet. The Pope was shortly afterwards exhorted, under Imperial inspiration, to content himself with a palace and a church on the right bank of the Tiber, and already the oilers of the Italian nation are becomingfar less liberal. The cause of independence has suffered a heavy loss in the death of Cavour, but it has also proved" that it can survive its chief promoter. The anarchy which has disturbed the Neapolitan provinces has failed to assume the proportions of a civil war, though it is still not definitely suppressed. The different portions of the newly-formed kingdom are accustoming themselves to be part of a great whole, instead of scattered and significant units. The kingdom of Italy has already lasted long enough to obliterate the very thought of a federation, and, if it were forcibly overthrow to-morrow, unity would bo to the nation a lost right to be recovered, and not merely a great idea to be realized in an uncertain future. The Government has become strong enough to prevent an unseasonable collision with Austria, although an attempt will be made, sooner or later, to add Venetia to consolidated Italy. War may break out at any moment, but the prospect seemed nearer when the recent successes of Garibaldi apparently made the question of peace dependent or irresponsible unauthorized patriotism. It appears not to be the present policy of France to promote European disturbances which might, perhaps, bring acessionof territory, while they would certainly involve fresh financial embarrassments. It may be the interest of Italy to profit by some sudden occasion, and especially by any active display of discontent in Hungary; but, in default of special opportunities, it is better that the kingdom should complete its interior organization, as Piedmont between 1849 and 1859 showed, by a living example, that no intrinsic incapacity debarred Italians from the enjoyment of orderly freedom or of national independence. The attention of England has lately been diverted to matters of more pressing and immediate concern, but no change has taken place in the confidence and good will which have been so well deserved by the Italian Government and nation. Perhaps, in the ensuing session, Mr. Disraeli himself will recognise, at least by silence, the failure or" many a pompous prognostication. Several years have passed since his announcement that Italy was honeycombed by secret societies, and only preserved from utter dissolution by a despotic police with an Austrian army in the background. As the hollow fabric has not yet collapsed, although all its supports have been withdrawn, some new and plausible mystery may as well be substituted for the bugbear which is too faint for the daylight. At the beginning of 1861, the Hungarians had an experiment to try which is now thoroughly exhausted. The statesmen who guided them believed neither in the good faith of the House of Hapsburg nor in the possibility of effecting a reconciliation, while they were themselves determined not even to discuss a compromise. The Austrian Government offered to repair its former injustice, and, with true sagacity, the Hungarians took it at its word. Exiles and agitators assured them that the solution of the problem was obvious beforehand, but they resolved on demonstrating in the face of the world the truth which was perfectly familiar to themselves. They asked for*nothing but their undoubted legal rights, and their demand involved the precise concessions which the Austrian Government was determined to refuse. The long and abortive struggle gave the Hungarians an opportunity of remonstrating formally, through the Diet, against encroachments which had been incompletely understood in many foreign countries. Their resistance to unsurpation has for a time been suppressed by military force, but the Austrian Court has been compelled to suspend every institution in the country, as the alternative of restoring the constitutional rights which were demanded. The dynasty no longer reigns by any legal title, and since it has been unanimously repudiated by the nation, there can be little doubt that its actual tenure will be brief. It will not be easy to commence an armed resistance, but the defensive force of Hungary, if it were even hastily organi/xd, would be more than a match for all the power of Austria. The war of 1848 showed the military capabilities and resources of the country, and it is highly improbable that, in any future contest, the Hungarians would be defeated by foreign intervention. Whenever the struggle occurs, English politicians may reasonably regret the inevitable disaster which awaits an old and tenacious ally. It is, however, 1 by her own accumulated faults that Austria has been doomed to destruction, nor can a State which falls to pieces from inherent weakness claim any longer to be regarded as an element in the balance of power. The discontents of Poland are not likely at present to express themselves in open resistance, and the obscure disturbances which are constantly smouldering in the South-eastern parts of Europe will scarcely assume formidable proportions as long as France and Kussia are disposed, for different reasons, to maintain the peace of Europe. One complication has been removed by the withdrawal of the French forces from Syria, and it may be hoped that no compensating danger of misunderstanding may arise from the joint expedition to Mexico. If peace can be preserved with America, the Government has for the present no visible difficulty to apprehend either at home or abroad. Mr. Gladstone himself cannot get tip another squabble on the paperduty, and his colleagues have every motive for abstaining from gratuitous innovations, In default of more important topics, the Minute of the Committee of Council on Education promises to furnish an occasion for attacks, of which many are already prepared. The hostility of all the schoolmasters, of all the schoolmanagers, and of nine-tenths of the clergy who really support the schools, is not to be despised by a Government which commands a bare majority. The danger, however, is so obvious, and the object in official eyes so unimportant, that Lord Palmerston and Lord Granville will probably decline the conflict by the offer of some acceptable compromise. The saving of the public revenue, at the expense of disinterested promoters of education, only involves the transfer of a burden from those who ought to bear it to others who have already taken more than their share of expanse and labour. The Government Minute can only have been brought forward on conscientious grounds, for it involves a calculable risk to the Ministry, as well as a mass of inevitable odium. The virtuous impulses which prompted the measure have had time to cool, and the hopes of the Opposition will probably be baulked by the absence of any opportunity of denouncing the injustice of the change. It will be well if the continuance of peace leaves Parliament at leisure to discuss any topic so safe and unexciting.