THE BUDGET.

North Otago Times, Volume CV, Issue 13939, 24 July 1917, Page 2

THE BUDGET.

SPECULATION TEOM THE LOBBIES NO SENSATIONAL TAXATION EXPECTED. SOLDIERS' AND . PAY. , WELLINGTON, July 21. It is improbable that tho Budget will be ready- for presentation to the House by the end of next week, if,.indeed, the House is ready to receive it by that time. The Addrcss-in-Keply debate this session promises to be one of the longest on record, for it will certainly extend over two or three days of next week, if not over the whole week. It is understood that tho Finance Minister has the Financial Statement far advanced in preparation. The statement is never considered by Cabinet until it is printed, and after Cabinet lias done with it there wili v almost certainly be alterations and additions. It is therefore not impossible that Sir Joseph Ward will not be able to make his -statement to the House even in the following week. Another Huge Surplus.

So many other things liavo engaged the attention of members that they have shown but little curiosity aa to the probable contents of the Budget. It is iaken for granted that there will be another huge surplus, Last year the amount wis two millib;is, and unless things have gone very much amiss, we should lliivc another million or uo this year, It is quite true that 1 Customs and lailway revenue have fallen, considerably, but this loss will be compensated many times by the increased income tax and the'excess profits tax, No Sensational Proposals, There seems lo be some disparity of '■deas among Ministers on the subject of taxation, Mr Masse-y has hinted that there may be no very alarming increases in taxation, but Sir Joseph Ward and Mr MacDonnld have, on different occasions, dropped remarks which indicated that they thought everything taxable should be taken. On the whole, it seems a safe prediction that the taxation proposal.! of the Government for this y: ar will not be sensational. Excess Fronts Tax, Early in the session the leaders of the Government were nut inclined It) yield lo I lie'demand (or Hie repeal of I lie execs-: prolils lax, ' lint the report now is dial eillier (lie (ax is lo go or the method p!' assessment is to be very radically changed. The return from the tax lasl year was such a big one that this of itself furnishes the strongest possible reason from, the point of view of Ihe Finance Minister against the repeal of the tax. If it is abolished there will have lo be other taxes. Payment of Soldiers,

It is improbable that the provision lo be made for the dependants of the men of the-Second Division will have

any material effect on the financial proposals of .the Government tlii.S "'year. Separation allowances and pay are expenditure which it i'i the policy or this country to provide for out of loan money, and until the time comes when pensions for the dependants of Second Division men-will have to he found, the revenue will not have to hear any additional burden, In any case, it is unlikely that ii considerable number of Second Division men will have gone into camp before the, end of the current financial year, and none of Ihem will have gone to the war. Reduction of Percentage of Reinforcements, The percentage of reinforcements will almost certainly be reduced, but a definite announcement of the amount of 'the reduction may not be made until the cud of the present European summer. l\. is admitted that the present rate of reinforcements is more than sufficient to keep our forces up to establishment, but iiiifjl the summer lighting has ended it wilt not be possible to say with certainty what percentage of reinforcements Sew Zealand ought to send. In view of what is regarded as a certainty of the rate being reduced, and the consequent postponement of the calling up of the married men, it does not appear that it will be necessary to make financial provisions this year for the dc'pendants of the married men, Sir Joseph Ward's Task, ;

ficucrally, the Budget this year is likely to give the Finance Minister rather more concern, than the statement of last year. lie sees all his

sources o}' rovciiuo disappearing, or drying ii]). The railways do not now show the good profit ofS>ther days; Customs duties are being reduced from several pauses, of which the economy of the people is perhaps Hie least of all; and, in view of the bad prospects for the coming export season, it may be precarious- to lean ..too heavily on the land to provide the lost revenue. Sir Joseph Ward is a Minister who likes'a good margin of safety, and he may feel' a little uneasy about his taxes. A Big Loan. There will be a big loan as a matter of course, Last year the amount asked for was eight millions, but the Governinert took as much more than that as was offering. This year the Government may ask for more than this, and the rate of issue will probably have to be raised above U per cent. This is auolhcr of the Treasurer's concerns, but when there is even a suggestion- that.tlie British Government is contemplating raising part of its next Joan by premium bonds, this country, in its present prosperous slate, cannot, with a.good conscience, expect the Motlic- Country to pay most of its war '