Nelson Evening Mail WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 1942 TOJO’S “NEXT STAGE”

Nelson Evening Mail, Volume 77, 30 September 1942, Page 4

Nelson Evening Mail WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 1942 TOJO’S “NEXT STAGE”

. TO JO has spoken, saying that Japan I has completed all preparations for, | “the next stage of the war.” Of 1 what that stage is to be he gave no 1 indication and there are no certain, I pointers to the well-camouflaged ! i plans of the Japanese. Even Gene- | ral Wavell. who is probably in pos-j I I session of all the information avail-. ! able to United Nations, admitted in ! an interview that he didn’t know | just what they were up to. There, 1 are several alternatives open to! i Japan, one or more of which she 1 I appears to have chosen for her next, | move: like Germany she cannot af- j | ford to stand still till her quickly-! 1 won gains are enveloped by an AI-. • lied conn ter-offensive Siberia re- [ cently scented the most likely sphere j | of action. Enemy concentrations in »: Manehukuo were freely reported and; . | the Japanese withdrawal from China j I; strengthened the assumption. But.’ J j unless they are prepared to fight '•through a rigorous Siberian winter.. »i the time has now gone by for launch- j ■ mg this enterprise. Moreover, the, J new Japanese Foreign Minister, | Masayuki Tani. has said “Relations; » with Russia in the Far Eastern terri- » tory are unchanged and tranquil.” I Is it likely that he would turn out to j \ be another Kurusu? - In India the monsoons are ending j > j and the season for campaigning be- • j ginning- A few weeks ago some obj j servers thought that Japanese at-! • j tentions would be turned to India J ! rather than Siberia. Apart from J | favourable weather, they might seek J to capitalise Indian unrest. It is [ clear that much of the sabotage in I the provinces close to the Burmese 1 border has been engineered by enemy ! are designed to forestall any enemy • attempt to get a foothold on the • western shores of the Indian ocean ? or to obtain a stranglehold on the J sea lanes there. Wavell expresses c • no opinion about Japanese designs { on India- He merely says he has J planned from the beginning to retake { Burma as a necessary preliminary

; to the succour of China and as a a j base from which to go after the j T | Japanese. ; At present Japan is most active in the South-West Pacific and it is to i j this theatre that observers are look- * I ing to see if they can glimpse t some signs of Tojo’s "next stage.” In New Guinea, where the Allies £ are taking a turn at the often- , j sive. the immediate objective j is Port Moresby. but what ( is the wider one? If the Australian mainland presents too tough a pro- ■ position there is the alternative oT;; filtering from New Guinea down the ; island chaiu. first to New Caledonia . and then to New Zealand. Indeed, : one American correspondent has gone | as far as to list this order of con* ! quest in Japanese strategy: 1- Port Moresby: 2. New Caledonia; 3. New j Zealand. The main basis of his con-- • tention is that Japan aims to sit j astride the United States-Australia; ! supply line and that she can do this just as effectively by gaining possession of the island fringe as by attacking the Australian continent, j There is considerable substance in that view. All through her Pacific' i conquests Japan has set great store on the acquisition of bases- Interruption of supplies across the Pacific has also been one of her main aims. A glance at the map will show what a favourable position she would oc- j cupy for doing this if she could cap- | ture the islands between New Guinea ' and New Zealand. To such a plan re-occupation of some of the Solomon Islands is prov-j ;l ing a severe checkmate. That may ! be one reason why she is making,such determined efforts to regain Guadalcanar, where, both in the air and on land, the enemy have been given another good drubbing. They

also realise that loss ut Lite Solomons v would open the way to Rabaul, one of j their main bases. Unless they cun ( , regain the Solomons there will be aj p gap in their island chain. which ; r would be a barrier to its extension. J Another and greater obstacle will be| o Allied sea-power the "thin margin” j t of superiority in which Admiral M Nimitz says lies with United Nations. Sooner or later, it seems, a major j s sea battle will take place in the I v South-West or South Pacific. Hj-j Tokio’s plans involve an attempt to push Japanese tentacles further south -J then it is only sea and air power t that will make them draw sharply c back again. On the outcome of such 1 a battle the future of New Zealand J would primarily depend. Thus, at- , ter a period in which the invasion c threat receded from our shores, we » I may now stand lull in the eye of the j j; Japanese High Command. It do- ~ pends on what is involved in To jo’s j i "next stage.” If it includes a major j 1 I campaign against Pacific supply lines 1 1 New Zealand may not be actually j j third on the list, but she will cer- p | tainlv be there somewhere-