Nelson Evening Mail TUESDAY, APRIL 6, 1915. COULD GERMANY HAVE POSTPONED THE WAR?

Nelson Evening Mail, Volume XLVIII, Issue XLVIII, 6 April 1915, Page 4

Nelson Evening Mail TUESDAY, APRIL 6, 1915. COULD GERMANY HAVE POSTPONED THE WAR?

WOULD Germany have embarked on this ruthless war if she had known that Britain would, fight? This is, of course, a question which cannot 'be answered with surety despite' the fact that common sense and. reason, are all on the side of Germany Tiding off. And also, if Britain had 'been a trained nation, would Germany have risked the conflict? Again it is impossible to speak,definitely, "for colossal; conceit seems to have interfered with German judgment,,, and reason is a missing quality. Many people seeni to have satisfied themselves about such questions. Definite conclusions have been formed on matters that are still puzzling the most competent authorities. For instance, it is sometimes said that the \ liberals at Home by their reluctance to provide greater military and naval strength invited attack. There is certainly an element of truth In this contention- but is it not a fact that the Liberals went as far. as the nation would allow ? Certainly greater military strength was necessary —this is a- fact -Universally admitted—but that greater" effort had to come from the nation itself. The Little Eriglafider party in endeavouring to force the nation to live in a fools' paradise—unarmed amidst an armed Europe —has much to answer for in this wax.. And those people who urged that England, being an insular Power, could be rendered secure by sea power alone, must be sadly disillusioned. Everyone" can :now see what, the position of Britain would be with the Germans, say, in possession of Belgium and the northern coast of France; We have turned to an article ,by Dr DUIoh, published in the "Contemporary" 1 just aVyear ago this month.. Events that have Recurred "since the publication of .the article 'thrown, a, lurid light through the pages. The text of the article-is fh©' : newspaper war between Russia and Germany which occurred- in the "beginning of 1914. He saw in bitter comments passed by the German press on. Russian military preparations 's. recognition that Germany had for thfe time being reached the limit of her capacity in the matter"of armaments, and' that time 1 was oh the side of Russia with her enormous area and population, -'.'"'a-he German* prfessi" he remarked, ."would seem .'to have awakened suddenly to the fact that. Germany's military efficiency has" risen to : the highest level it is likely to attain,for some years to 'come, whereas during -'■ these years Russia's strength, already will be growing by leaps and bounds. Remembering: their stock . argument against the three years' military service in France, that a nation whose population is hardly cannot hope to vie. with a neighbour who has nearly 70;000,000, it may have occurred to these publicists that a'•State which numbers a population.of hardly 70,000,000 cannot in thfe Jtong run hope to get ab'reat of. a rival which boasts nearly Time.is on Russia's side, p-oviding not only number, but quality. The longer peace-lasts, therefore, the more formidable will Russia .become, and the less likely will she be to acquiesce gratuitously in Germany's designs on Asia Minor or elsewhere." At present Russians in a position much inferior to that of her -western neighbour, but sho is showing unusual vigour in the improvement of both her finances and her military establishments. Already her army is vastly better than it was at the time of the Japanese War, the officers in particular being better trained and far stronger in morale. The field artillery is armed with -guns said to surpass in several respects those of the French and German armies,-, and the peace establishment has already j been increased by one-third." .Not only had Russia's effective fightinn- power been steadily increased, but, according to Dr Dillon, ihc spirit of die Russian nation was becoming more antiGerman every year. This was partlydue to the advantage which Germany took of her neighbours preoccupation with fhe Japanese War to insist upon a commercial treaty, which cost the -Russian people hundreds of millions of roubles, and bestowed millions on the

Germans. Much of Germany's pre-war prosperity was ascribed to this treaty. "Had it not been for the tribute which by this instrument she imposed on the , Slav empire, her treaties with other na-' tions and the profit which these have since -brought her in would," Dr Dillon declared, "have been impossible. Her desire was to have that treaty renewed, whereas Russia Russia was resolved to denounce it as soon as the legal term, arrived and not to renew it in. its present scope, come what may. These differences, which involved immense interests, vested as well as incohate, will be siiarpened into actuality during the next twelve months." In addition to the sharp conflict of commercial interests, there was the very real rivalry between the Slav and Teutonic races, of which races Russia and Germany were the respective protagonists. "This," Dr Dillon assured us, "is no mere dispute about territorial expansion, political designs, or commercial advantages. It is a ruthless struggle for mastery in all domains of national and international existence, which, so far as one can now see, may at most he retarded by the diplomatic goodwill on .both sides, but can hardly be settled with fln'ality by any treaty or convention. For here we are dea&ng with j&n instinctive semi-cotn-scious movement which obeys natural laws, and not with a deliberate, selfdetermining agency, which may be modified "by argument or swayed by persuasion. Slavism and Teutonism are fast •becoming the two predominant forces in European politics, around which mostother issues will tend to group themselves." This rivalry, he went on to say, was a further menace to peace, because of the.tension between Russia and Germany's ally, Austria-Hungary, which it constantly provoked with every development of the -unstable Balkan situation.