Nelson Evening Mail FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 1912. THE WAR.

Nelson Evening Mail, Volume XLVII, Issue XLVII, 8 November 1912, Page 4

Nelson Evening Mail FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 1912. THE WAR.

THE Turk has lost his habit of succeeding. Unless something unforseen happens, he must, in the words of .the "Renin," say good-bye to Europe. Already the allied forces are hammering at the gates of Constantinople, and there will be no holding thorn" when everything is in readiness for the final step. But what will the Turk do in the meantime? Maddened soldiery, filled with fanatisism and wild despair, will have not the slightest scruples in butchering the Christian population and perpetrating deeds of inconceivable horror. The Powers fully recognise the peril of the Christians, and endeavours are being made to prevent the desperate outrages, and there will be great danger of misunderstanding. The seriousness o"f the Vpqsition cannot be over-estimat-ed, and it is the immediate task awaiting the Powers. England, in sending several warships to Constantinople, evidently intends in no half-hearted manner to protect her subjects, and New Zealand or any other part of the Empire would gladly assist in this direction.

One of the most outstanding features of the war is the amazing suddenness with which events have transpired. It was only on the Bth October last that Montenegro' declared war on Turkey, and already the Turkish army has been almost annihilated, and the unhappy country has been forced to ask the Powers to mediate for peace. Before the outbreak of hostilities, the Powers gave a guarantee that there would be no alteration of territorial boundaries; but with the sudden and complete .victory of the allies, new conditions and new circumstances have arisen, and it seems certain that the Powers will be forced to meet the altered conditions with altered measures. The allies have sacrificed and won too much for entertaining much hope that old conditions will be resumed when .uie last shot has been fired. And, in addition, it is clear that the Balkan States will not submit to

Turkish misgovernment, which has been the cause of the present outbreak. No longer does it seem that the partition can be avoided, and the danger in this process is that dissatisfaction will be caused, that international jealousies will be aroused, and thus vender a general European war imminent. But so far, the Powers have shown what has every appearance of being an earnest endeavour to preserve peace, and the frightful consequences of any great war will doubtless, have the effect of steadying the hands of diplomatists in all countries.. These terrible consequences fortunately tend in the direction of preserving peace, and will do not a little in that direction.

If trouble of a serious international ' nature arise, it will arise through the action of Austria, which country will fear that the Allies' victory will place the Balkan .States to all intents and purposes in the hands of Russia. Count Berchtold has declared with great emphasis, howevcV, that Austria does not desire any territorial aggrandisement, and is solely concerned in the bringing about a satisfactory peace. But can Austria be believed? She has, so far, given no reasons for entertaining doubt as to her sincerity, and the words of Count Berchtold may represent her policy. It is much to be hoped that this is so. And according to to-day's cables, Emperor Francis Josef has stated that at a fitting raicirent "the Government would be ready to act with the Powers in the restoration of peace." It is well to inquire into* the circumstances in which Austria is placed. It is safe to assume that Austria, 'has .painfully surprised during the last.few weeks. The complete nature of the Allies' victory h?s put a new complexion on the Balkan problem, and no Power has been affected more than Austria. Past experience goes to prove that it is necessary to inquire into the matter on the assumption that might is right.

The annexation by Austria of Bosnia and Herzegovina regardless of treaties in the hour of Russia's military weakness, proves how much might- still count in these countries. The question that arises fro mthis reasoning is, Will it pay Austria to a/tempt any -territorial aggrandisement? After what has happened. No. And for ihese reasons : It has been the traditional policy of Great Britain to prevent European conquest or annexation in these countries in order to preserve the balance of power. And therefore Great Britain will be solidly for Balkan autonomy. And long before the Triple Entente Russia -was- the foe of Austria in the Balkans. It has ever been Russia's airr to prevent a strong military power from taking up a .position on the Dardanelles, through which the maritime trade of the Black Sea, ports, much pass. And in addition the Balkan States have demonstrated a militairy strength that is not to be denied. If, Austria , should attempt to gain Macedonia, Russia would scon join the Allies, and a big lighting force would be the result. Doubtloss Austria could rely on the Triple Alliance, or at any rate, upon Germany; but this would bring her and her allies face to face with the Triple Entente. And Slavonic interests would doubtless be aroused, and Austria would stand to lose her Slavonic provinces. Altogether it would bo folly for Austria to endeavour to achieve her Je.sire of reaching Salonica. and it is qiiite natural that she should, in these circumstances, be ready to join the Powers in securing .peace. Germany has received a severe knock, for she has hitherto secured the support of x\ustTia "by guaranteeing her march southward. Austria may find that the. Triplei Alliance is Mow not worth considering, .and thus 'Germany may lose her chief ally. From a genera.! point of view, there is every indication that international peace will 'be Traintairied. The main causes of danger at the present time are the position of tivChristians in Turkey and the Slav inter- ■ ests, which, by the victory of the Allies, have been sure-used in so many countries.