Nelson Evening Mail SATURDAY, JULY 18, 1903.

Nelson Evening Mail, Volume XXXVII, Issue 150, 18 July 1903, Page 2

Nelson Evening Mail SATURDAY, JULY 18, 1903.

LONGEVITY AND THE DECREASING BIRTH RATE.

IS IT A COMPENSATING BALANCE ? MOST- English-speaking peoples have been greatly concerned of late years by the steadily decreasing 1 birthrate There is the gleam of a silver lining to the cloud, however, in the corresponding decrease of the death rate in most European Communities, almost .if -; io t4ufte furnishing a compensation balance. MoreOVef, the age-limit average has ma*terially increased during the past half-century, giving to the world the use of the Drains ano! labour of thousands who, under earlier cOnaii lions, might have passed out of life many years before their appointed life-work was done. » * » • ' The phenomenon of the decreased death-rate correlated with the decrease in the birth-rate is striking enough to attract the attention of statisticians-, and to. allay to some ekVent the fears of those who discern in the, falling birt)h-Vate & necadence.o'f 'the He*. The contention that Ihfc one compensates for the other may be, probably is, fallacious. ■ But from an academic standpoint at ] least the evidence is worth noting. Figures carefully collated sho.w 'th*V , if proportionately, tewet people are ; coming into ttVe civilised world each year, those who do come remain longer. It is suggestive also, that the declining birth-rate .and. the lengthening of the average life are circumstances generally noticeable side by side in the same countries. Thus, while the sterility of the race has^ been one of the most marked social phenomena in France dlifing the ( past century, within the same period the average span of life has stretched from 28 to 46 years. In America, where the decreasing birthrate has called forth protest, exhortation and warning from priest and] president alike, the -life average is i exceptionally high. The same two facts exist together in A notably emphasised form in. Australia 'and | New SHeilAm! ilsd, wnile 'in England the mean length of life has increased from about 20 years in the time of Queen Elizabeth to 5.3 years in the cities and 54 in the rural districts. In England, too, it will have been observed, the birth-rate has fallen' off so markedly is to attract the . -attention of statesmen, statisticians, and reformers. • * % Alarm in rogaid lo tho falling birth-rate is apparently allayed to some extent by rbo knowledge that it is v.o now things but actually incidental with the advance of civilisation, correlated With the increase in the life average already sdlutfed to. In the inoPe primitive teommurtities the Wrth And^ death la'tcs &re both high, a^d cnoy seen* to Vlirninisb "pari p.\??u" 6,3 civilisation proi gress'c-8. Hid countries like India and China not a very high birthrate, they would, instead of being over-populated, soon become depopulated by tho appalling irortalitj. A\d conversely, had not the average longevity of the French people risen within recent vt-arß, the decreaus of natality would have brought about a sittliiiLr result. In part? of Russia > fiatf tho 'children born die beloro the! age of seven, and out of every . thtiusftm'dl Wy iour hundred and eighty live to be 21, with ' the result that the life-ex-pectancy for the whole population averages only 28 years, as against America's flfty-nve» England's nfty-fbur> and Fralito's forty sik. ,Tn the itynte o,f tlte Caesars;, it \h eStS.ittiltotl that the "average 'age Oft, which people died 'wiiS Wghteen. Tlie .birth-rate in. the reign of Augus--1 tu's weh't down to an ektent, which so alarmed the Government that rewards were offcrqd for large families, the same as is proposed in France to-day. I Jut the aheiuinc bf the improved sanitation and those many sclenting aids to the ph&ervatioft of Jite whifch fete'dcrh civilisation pro^-ixJes left ie mortality rate stationary, conserjucnt'ly the type of the " Civis Romaiu.s " j n course of time became, extinct. "* It is contended from the foregoing data that it is not the number of children born l.hat makes a nation great so much as tlio proportion of the number which grows up to perpetuate the race and carry on its wusihofs. • • t * A »«t;,er reassuring and consoling fact is that actuarial investigations and calculations by life assurance societies are compelling t.hem to keep oh liberalißlhg their terms in order to maintain a fair economic proportion between the ■prowi.iu.ins paid and the amounts assured. A Sydney paper says that nowhere is this more conspicuous than in Australia, where, despite a fall in the internet rale oh accumulated funds from the level at which it stood when the old actuarial tables were adopted, owing to the steady decrease in mortality tho offices are able to treat insurers more liberally. Suriimod up, the correlation of longevity with a decreasing birthrate is easily explained as a modern social phenomenon. 7»r-n and women who live longer work longer, retain positions and property longer, defor promotion of their juniors, and consequently contribute to the postponment of early marriage. By parity of process, learners take longer to become exports in biisinossps ami rallfntr." win ••'<,■» | competition is keener than in more primitive ages when the average of 1

life wa's shorter, and thus the exer* feisfe bf Jheir earning power is deferred, reacting on their marriage^ As it is -well, ascertained that early, marriages ai*e the most prolific, the increase in the birth-rate is thus still further kept down. These arguments are specious, perhaps they are fallacious. But they must be considered, and facts must be deferred to. In any case, one is apt to seek any loop-hole of escape front the embarassing problem of race decadence presented by the di-rroase in the birth-rate of the civilised world, and this outlet seems as feasible as any other offering. Carried to its ridiculous conclusion, however, we shddder at the coming horror of- men and women living to the age of Methusaleh, and of young persons of 500 years or so acting frivolously in the matter of early 'marriage without due provision for the domestic upkeep.