The MANAWATU DAILY Times FRIDAY, DECEMBER 4, 1936. Recovery and the future

Manawatu Times, Volume 61, Issue 287, 4 December 1936, Page 6

The MANAWATU DAILY Times FRIDAY, DECEMBER 4, 1936. Recovery and the future

The consumption of foodstuffs oi ail kinds in .britain nas been increasing more rapidly in the depression years since 1929 than in the years of alleged prosperity before 1929, writes Mr. Geoffrey Crowther in the New Outlook. There has been a similar increase in the demand for all sorts of goods which are sold in the mass to the people. The phenomenal demand for new houses and new motor-cars is a reflection of the same thing. It would be wrong to suggest that a new motor-car for John Smith can be measured against the loss of his job ana his life savings and his self-respect for Bill Brown, even if there are six John Smiths for every one Bill Brown. There is no common measuring rod, and it may very well be that the misery of a few outweighs by its very intensity the much more diluted pleasure of the majority. But there is one thing that can be measured, namely, the volume of goods which can be afforded by the people as a whole, and this has undoubtedly increased. It is due to the double accident that Britain is a food-importing country, and that an industrial depression at Home has coincided with a very serious agricultural depression beyond the seas.

On these two counts, then, Britain’s present recovery is not true to type, and this makes it peculiarly difficult to forecast what is going to happen next. At present, at least half of existing unemployment is directly or indirectly due to the continued stagnation in the export trades.

If there were a sudden boom in exports, the unemployment figures would go down much more rapidly than by any other means. Conversely, if there were a renewed slump in world trade unemployment figures would rise very quickly. But so far as can be foreseen, neither is likely to happen. Most countries of the world are still in a fairly early stage of recovery, and the probability is that they will continue very slowly to expand their purchases of British goods.