Manawatu Daily Times. FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 1925. Population Stagnation

Manawatu Times, Volume XLIX, Issue 2307, 27 November 1925, Page 6

Manawatu Daily Times. FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 1925. Population Stagnation

While we near of the phenomenal growth of such countries as the United States, it seems strange that so fortunate an isle as New Zealand should show such disappointing figures in the matter of population increases. The annual statistical report just to hand from the Census and Statistics office is again very disappointing and gives food for serious thought. Though the rate of growth of the population during the period under review was greater than in the two years Immediately preceding, it was yet below normal. If we take the five pre-war years, 1909-13, the percentage gain of population, excluding Maoris was 2.6 G per cent, .whereas a similar mean for the five post-war years, 1920-24, gives only 2.25 per cent This drop is the more noteworthy since governmentally assisted immigration shows a considerable increase, the average during 1920-24 being 7550 per annum, compared with an annual average of 3479 persons during 1909-13. An estimate based on the experience of the past four decades gives a prediction of a European population of only 2,000,000 in 1943. Nor are figures more favourable if we compare the rate of growth of New Zealand with that of the principal countries of the Empire. The increase of population in Australia between the census enumerations of 1911 and 1921 was 22.0 and in Canada 21.95. New Zealand comes next with 20.87, while South Africa has 19.06. All these figures are for the white population only. In the British Isles which are already closely settled, the increases are for Wales 9.00; for England 4.80; and for Scotland 2.50. In the period from 1875 to date the natural increase has amounted to almost three-fourths of the total increase. Formerly the rate of natural increase in New Zealand was remarkably high, exceeding, indeed, that of all other countries. Now, however, by the almost continual decline in the birth-rate, which could not be counterbalanced by an equivalent fall in the already low death rate, the rate of natural Increase ie i-.itle more than half that of former days. Nevertheless, by virtue of .the Bominion experiencing the lowest

death-rate in the world, the rate of natural increase is exceeded by that of w countries. The rate of natural increase in 1924 was the lowest ever recorded In New Zealand, with the exceptions of 1923 and 1918, the year of the influenza epidemic. The birth-rate last year reached a level below which it had previously fallen on one occasion only, 1919; and the rise in the rate of natural Increase is wholly duo to the unprecedently low death-rate.

Figures for the two Islands show that the North Island is credited with a gain of 9.9 per cent in the foui years since the census, while the South Island can show a gain of only 6.9. The actual numbers are for Auckland 42.303; for Hawke’s Bay 5180; for Taranaki 4719; and for ■Wellington 20,894. In percentages this gives Auckland a little over 11 per cent, as against 8 for the other three provinces. The largest gain in the South Island is for ' Canterbury whore the actual numbers are 18,237, and the percentage 9.2. A tendency towards a pronounced drift to the towns is again noted. The estimate for the present year shows a proportion of 56.9 for urban population and 43.1 for rural. The census of 1916 showed 55.25 urban and 44.75 rural. The density of population to the square mile is 13.36, including Maoris. If we exclude land not available for occupation, the density is approximately 16 persons to the square mile. These figures show that w r e are not making the increase in regard to population that we ought to make, and that our continually falling birth-rate is a matter for 'Serious concern. Whilst we may congratulate ourselves on having the lowest deathrate in the world, yet we have reached the point where no great fall can be expected, and the statistics show that such fall as we have experienced in the death-rate does not counterbalance the continual decline in our birth-rate, nor are we making tbe gain in immigrants that we ought to make. The drift to the towns is another matter that should be carefully noted. New Zealand is essentially a country which must depend for its .prosperity on its primary products and one of the first aims of those in charge of our Immigration policy should be to see that those reaching our shores are given every opportunity for adding to our rural rather than to our town population.