LARGER POPULATION.

Manawatu Standard, Volume LIX, Issue 70, 20 February 1939, Page 9

LARGER POPULATION.

NOTABLE INCREASE

BIRTH RATE IMPROVES

The highest population increase in New Zealand since 1930-31 was recorded for the year ended March 31, 1938. The increase was 17,268, equal to 1.09 of the population at the beginning of the year. It was the result partly of a higher natural increase and partly of an excess of arrivals over departures, the first since 1930-31. At March 31, 1938, the total population of New Zealand was 1,604,479, with the dependencies and mandated territory making 1,679,814. . After pointing out that the conditions in 1936 were those of a declining population, the Census and Statistics Department, in its annual report on population and buildings, says that the improvement in the birth-rate for the year 1937-38 affords justification for a rather more optimistic view, though rather as a portent of further improvement than as a measure of accomplished gains. A definite and marked continuation of this improvement is necessary before the natural increase ratio is satisfactory for a population in circumstances such as that of New Zealand.

“The lowest total population increase in recent years was the 10,867 in 1934-35,” states the department, “but from that date successive increases have been recorded, and the total for 1937-38 was much higher than the average of 15,066 for the 10-yearly period. Exclusive of Maori population, which is increasing more rapidly than the white population, the increase was 14,975, or 1.00 per cent. RATE OF INCREASE. “Since 1875, 74 per cent, of the increase in New Zealand’s population (other than Maori) has come from excess of births over deaths, and 26 per cent, from the net migration increase. The natural increase ratio was formerly unusally high in New Zealand, the annual average, for instance, reaching 29.41 per 1000 of mean population in the quinquennium 1876-80. The 1937 fig.ure of 8.21 per 1000 showed an improvement on the 1936 figure of 7.59, which was the lowest point reached in a long decline. “The relatively high rate of natural increase formerly recorded in New Zealand was derived in part from the exceptionally low death-rate which was, and still is, the lowest recorded in any country in the world. No further fail in the death-rate to any substantial degree can be anticipated in the future. It may, indeed, be remarked that the age-constitution of the population is from this aspect now less favourable than in past years. The birth-rate in former years was vastly higher than the present level. For instance, in the five years 1876-80, it averaged 41.21 per 1000 of mean population; in the last five years it has been—l 933, 16.63; 1934, 16.51: 1935, 16.17; 1936, 16.64 ; and 1937, 17.29. Some improvement was to be expected with the lifting of the depression, and small recoveries were manifest in 1936 and 1937.

“The indications for 1938 point to a further slight gain in the birthrate, but it should bo noted that the comparatively small upward movement in the birth-rate during the last two and a-lialf years has followed a much greater relative improvement in the marriage rate, which may or may not be sustained. Should tlio birth-rate of future years reach and maintain higher levels, population growth is assured, but even if this takes place the effects of the low increase ratio of tho more immediate past will remain for many years. “For example, internal changes in age-constitution, resulting from the fall in the birth rate, entail serious consequences. Tho movement of population to the higher ago groups has very wide-spread effects. An examination of 1936 census ago statistics shows that (omitting Maoris) there were 50,304 more persons over age 60 than there were in 1926. On the other hand, there were actually 22,100 fewer children under age 10 in 1936 than there were in 1926. Apart from possible gains from immigration or losses from emigration, diminished numbers must result in future years in the age groups comprising those in active occupations. Thus, for example, in 20 years’ time there will be more than 20,000 fewer persons aged 20 to 24 years than there were of those ages in 1936. Accompanying reduced numbers in the working years of life will be enhanced numbers at ages past tho normal working span.”