FEWER YOUNG ENGLISHMEN

Manawatu Standard, Volume LVII, Issue 99, 29 March 1937, Page 8

FEWER YOUNG ENGLISHMEN

LOWEST NUMBER NEXT YEAR. GERMAN ARMY BOOK’S FIGURES. Great Britain will next year reach a record low' figure of young men aged 20 suitable for military service, according to figures published in the German Army Year Book for 1937. The numbers of young men reaching the age of 20 during 1937 are given as follows: Germany 313,700 England 296,900 France 171,000 After next year the figures lor all countries are expected to rise. The book states, according to Reuter, that by 1950 Germany will have at her disposal 12,994,000 men of military age between 20 and 45,_ while Great Britain will have only 8,721,000 and France ,6,790,000. “This development shows,” the comment adds, “that Germany is not only the heart, but also the backbone of Europe, because she is pursuing a sound population policy while, for instance, England’s position in the world, through the way her population is developing, is seriously and almost irretrievably threatened.” WAR DECLINE. The German figures are entirely corroborated by available British statistics, says the London Morning Post. The record low figure for young men aged 20 next year is due to the sharp decline in the birth rate in this country during the War. In 1917 the birth rate in England and Wales w-as the lowest for sixty years, the decline from the previous year being substantial; and the figure for the following year was even lower. There was. however, a fair recovery in 1919, and a big advance in 1920. The German estimate of the number of young men in England reaching the age of 20 during 1937 also appears to be remarkably accurate. The number of male births in England and Wales in 1915 was 415,205, and the number of males aged' 20 in 1935 was 338,200, or about 81 per cent, of the original total of births. The number of male births in 1917 was 341,361, and, calculated on this basis of survival, the number of males reaching the age of 20 in 1937 would be about 276,200. The German figure of 296,900 represents a difference of only about 21,000, and is, in anv case, on the generous side. Bearing in mind the many factors which must be taken into consideration in making such calculations, and the virtual impossibility of obtaining exact figures, the divergence is practically negligible. INCLUSION OF SCOTLAND.

The inclusion of Scotland for the number of young men reaching the age of 20 in 1937 would bring the total figure for Great Britain to about 321,000. ~ This is actually greater than Oermany’s own estimated total, and is due to the fact that, in spite of her much greater population, Germany’s birth rate during the war was much lower than that of this country. In 1917, for example, Germany’s birth rate was 13.9 per 1000, compared with 17.8 in England and Wales. The German birth rate, however, has consistently exceeded that of England and Wales, though not that of Scotland, since the war. The estimate that Great Britain will have only 8,721,000 men of_ military age between 20 and 45 in 1950 is also as accurate as it is possible to make such estimates. The total male births of England, Wales and Scotland in the 25 years, 1905-30. were and on a basis of survival of 75 per cent. — which makes allowance for the increased mortality of older men—the total number of men between 20

and 45 in 1950 would be about 8,684,000. .

The population of France i 6 41,905,968, according to the official figures of the 1936 census just published. Of this total 2,453,507 are foreigners. This represents an increase in France’s population of only 71,000 over the past five years.