Manawatu Evening Standard. MONDAY, APRIL 20, 1931. A BRIGHTER OUTLOOK.

Manawatu Standard, Volume LI, Issue 118, 20 April 1931, Page 6

Manawatu Evening Standard. MONDAY, APRIL 20, 1931. A BRIGHTER OUTLOOK.

Two items of news which appeared at the week-end should be most encouraging to those who think that the world-wide depression is like a lane whose turning is still a .very long way off. Addressing the Canterbury branch of the Economic Society, Professor Tocker pointed out that there was as much money, or more, available as there was in 1929, and in consequence there was little reason to anticipate at present a continuance of the decline in prices. World prices, he said, might be expected to fluctuate above and below a level perhaps twenty-five per cent, above tlie pre-war level, the export values of New Zealand primary products requiring a decided upward swing to meet that line. One of the chief points of debate at the farmers’ rally held at Palmerston North last week centred on the question of costs, and how to reduce them. The national income has shrunk so much, because prices of our products have fallen considerably, that farmers and those engaged in industry cannot pay the same costs of production and continue in business. This is why, in sound business, firms have liad to take action to meet the situation created by.the depression by reducing wherever possible the charges wliicli in prosperous times did not bear heavily. Professor Tocker illustrated the importance of this point when he said that, until costs fell to such an extent that profitable employment of men in production was possible, there could be little recovery. From his survey of world business he told the meeting of signs of better conditions overseas. Share prices, lie pointed out, had been rising since the end of last year in Britain, the United States and Switzerland. Apart from Britain, the iron and steel output in the chief producing countries was expanding, while in the United States the building trade and certain manufactures had turned the corner. “Throughout the world,” added Professor Tocker, “the opinion was gaining ground that the bottom of the depression had at last been reached and that an improvement might be expected soon.” Pleasing as it is to record authoritative opinions, the process of recovery, it is well to state, will be long and tedious. Convalescence no doubt will be dreary to some, but the lessons should survive. In the United States, the Department of Commerce has announced an increase in the country’s foreign trade for March of 49,000,000 dollars; the total, approximately, for the month was 500,000,000 ' dollars. This is surely evidence of a more smoothly flowing current at certain points in world, trade. During a debate in tire House of Commons, last week, it was'stated by

the Government spokesman that considerable benefit had accrued to British industry from the Exhibition at'Buenos Aires, so that in certain directions British export trade, which is handicapped by the “great, increase in the productive capacity of every industrial land,” as the Lord Privy Seal said, will also be showing expansion. One of the best known of American economists and statisticians, Mr Roger Babson, is reported by cablegram to have advised “President Hoover that United States business had definitely improved, and he would not be surprised to see a shortage of labour before the end of the year in certain lines.” This statement is in line with one made at the commencement of the year by Mr Babson, but with this exception: it is more definite. Then, of course, the noted American statistician was forecasting trade conditions in 1931 and he pointed out that in January, 1930, people were facing problems; in 1931 they were facing solutions. At the end of this year he anticipated that business would be “within hailing distance of normal.” Because trade and finance are international, improved conditions in the Old World must have a reflex in New Zealand, but it doeg not necessarily follow that it will come at once. In the meantime authoritative statements like those quoted are very heartening.