THE DUNEDIN NORTH BYELECTION.

Manawatu Standard, Volume XLIII, Issue 432, 24 June 1922, Page 4

THE DUNEDIN NORTH BYELECTION.

Discussing the probable outcome of tbe Dunedin North by-election some days ago the “Standard” ventured the opinion. that, with three candidates in the field, the Labour candidate would win the seat rendered vacant by the death of the late Air Kellett. The' votes polled at tiie two previous elections appeared to indicate that Labour was the predominating element in the

doctorate. Wlion .Mr 0. M. Thomson won ilio soi.it limn tin* Liberals in 1911, on the second ballot, it was only by a mtv narrow majority, Ibe polling being Thomson ;-j;jß2, Barclay 3310. In 1914 Mr Walker captured the seat for Labour with 4073 votes against Mr Thomson's 3751 ; but, at tbe General I'declioii ol 1919, bad to surrender Iho position to Mr Kellett, the polling being 17SI lor Mr Kellett and 3978 for Mr Walker, whose candidature bad the endorsement of tbe Ollieial Labour Parly. Mr Kellett stood as an Independent Labour candidate, and evidently bad the support of a considerable section of the workers, while ho also secured the more moderate Liberal and Relonn vote, so far as the supporters of those parties chose to go to the poll. On the present occasion I lit* votes polled were fewer by 1100 than in 1919, but tbe indications arc that the moderate vote has gained attic expense of Labour, for it is generally admitted that Labour polls a full vole at by-elections, while the other sections of the community are more remiss in recording their votes. The combined Reform and Liberal vote was actually (on the results so tar recorded) 1.(59 ahead of those polled by Mr Walker in .1919, and it is evident, moreover, that the full strength of the combined vote was not polled. The result plainly shows that Liberalism of the old school is a failing quantity in the city electorates, and that it is heiug absorbed by the more vigorous Reform and Labour Parties, thus indicating that the real struggle at the General Election will be between the latter parlies. To Messrs Wilford, Statham and Sidey, who endorsed Mr Regg’s candidature as supported by the I’nited Progressive Liberal and Moderate Labour Party, the result must ho not only extremely disappointing, but reads very much like the writing on the wall. Neither Mr Sidey nor Mr Slatham holds his seats by anything like a substantial majority—Mr Sidey only polled 84 votes more than Mr J. T, Paul in 19.19, and Mr Statham’s changed attitude is certain to lose him more Relonn votes than lie is likely to

gain from his Liberal-Labour friends, while tbe fact that he has not been able to bold the seat tilled by his one and only lieutenant in the National Progressive and Moderate Labour Parly, will not enhance his credit with the parly to which he has transferred his allegiance. The moral of the election is obvious. In a straight out contest between the Independent Reform and tlu l Labour candidates the seat would have gone to Mr Clark, who had pledged himself to vote with the Government on a no-eoniidence motion, and who, contrary to the statement which appeared in the Wellington evening paper on Wednesday, in a special message from Dunedin concerning the election which was evidently intended to pave the way for the Liberal debacle, maintained the same attitude all through the election, as is apparent in the report of his first big meeting. If lie elects to come again at the General election tbe probabilities are that lie will come in an easy winner; for, if Mr Hogg could only poll 908 votes, it is very unlikely any other Liberal candidate will be forthcoming to contest the seat with Messrs Clark and Munro. And, for the Leader ol the Opposition, that must lie a grievous disappointment —as grievous as the defeat of the Him. G, \V. Russell in the Auckland East by-election last year.