SOME OMINOUS FIGURES.

Marlborough Express, Volume LIV, Issue 84, 10 April 1920, Page 6

SOME OMINOUS FIGURES.

DOMINION'S LOST HALF-MIL-

LION

Some ominous and deplorable figures are contained in the New Zealand Official Year Book for 1919 respecting the steady decline of the birth rate from 1882 onwards.

It is estimated that, had the average rate of natural increase (28.86 per 1000) during the 10 years 1865 to 1874 been maintained to the present day, the population of the Dominion in 1918 would have been 1,621,938 instead of 1,108,373. That is to say, New Zealand would now have had over half a million more people than it actually possesses. Had tho birth rate remained the same, and the death rate fallen as it lias, this total would have been greatly augmented.

The births registered in a year' numbered 19,846 in 1884, and, after falling to 17,876 in 1892, readied 23,----£O9 in 1916, tho highest (in number, not rate) yet. recorded in any year. The number of births registered in 1918 was 26,860, or 23.44 of mean population. The number of male children born during 1918 was 13,124, end the number of female children 12,736.

Taking the. period ISS2-86 as the j base (100), the following table shows at 10-year intervals, and yearly from 1912 onwards, the birth rate per 1000 of the population and the comparison with the average rat© for the base period 1882-86: —

Year- ft l| U 1882-86 ... 19.410 35.40 100 1892 17',876. 27.83 79 ]<!02 20,655 25.89 73 IS?] 2 ... .». 27,508 26.48 75 1913 27,935 26.14 74 1014 23,338 25.99 73 1915 27,850 25.33 72 1916 28,509 25.94 73 1917 28,239 25.69 73 1918 25,860 23.44 66 The decline of the birth rate, states the Year Book, has been partially compezisated for by a decrease in the death rate. Nevertheless, the rate of natural increase of population has fallen from 31.19 per 1000 of mean population in 1870" to 16.3 per 1000 in 1916, and 16.11 in 1917." In 1918 the rate of natural increase fell as low as 6.60 per 1000, but for that decrease the heavy toll exacted by the influenza epidemic was mainly responsible. From 3881-85 to 1917, .the last normal year for .which the figures are available, the birth rate fell from 3(3.36 to 25.69, the death rate fell from 10.95 to 9.58, and the natural inca-finsp. from 55 41 in 1fi.11_