The Ensign. FRIDAY, DECEMBER 15, 1911. THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

Mataura Ensign, 15 December 1911, Page 4

The Ensign. FRIDAY, DECEMBER 15, 1911. THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

The electors have responded nobly to the call that was made on their patriotism yesterday, and the result is that the Ward Administration will no longer be able with any show of decency to continue to hang on to office. The Go< vernment which for a great number of years past has had an overwhelming majority will now in all likelihood be in a minority in Parliament. It is difficult to estimate with mathemateal precision the exact position of parties, as on a no-confidence motion it is hard to say how some of the Independent and Labor members would vote. The bold fact stands out, however, that the supporters of the Opposition number 36 stalwarts on whom their leader can absolutely depend, while the supporters on whom Sir Joseph Ward can count number only a doubtful 31, the allegiance of some of whom will no doubt be shaken by the knowledge that to-day the Ward Government is discredited throughout the country, and is visibly tottering to its fall. A Government in office has tremendous advantages over its opponents in waging an electoral battle. It has if it chooses to exercise them, and the Ward Government has not been too scrupulous, vast powers of control and patronage. It can bring an enormous amount of Indirect influence to bear on the electors and often not through any merits of its own but simply from the fact that it is the Government and j stands for the established order of things, a large body of electors who 'have no sensitive political conscience [ give it their support. That position has now completely changed. No longer i c [the Ward party the dominant party and it remains to be seen whether nil of 'those members who supported it when it basked in the sun of popular favor will continue to give it their allegiance lin the stormy davs abend of it. Even I assuming that all the Ministerial members will continue to support the Government, it is clear that it cannot hone to retain office unless it receives tlm united support of the Independent a"d Labor members.. There are seven Independent and three Labor members who will sit in the new House. But 'east two of these Independents and one of the Labor members 7iave riled<red themselves to vote against the Government, and it is doubtful whether the Government can depend on the support of the other seven. Making the most favorable assumption in favor of the Government we find that it mi<rht possibly be able to command 38 votes acrainst the Reform Party's 39. There has still to be considered the votes of the three native members whose elections have yet to take place. From all appearances two natives will be returned to support the Government and one will take up an absolutely independent attitude. The Government would therefore have a possible 40 votes to a sure 39 of the Reform Party. Tn addition to this it has to be remembered that a Speaker from /the Government side will have to be elected and that means that the two parties will be absolutely even in numbers. Under the circumstances a most doubtful situation arises. Sir i Joseph Ward, as is perhnns natural, is reluctant to accept the bitter knowledge of defeat, and in his speech this morning after the battle was over he made a desperate attempt to put the best face on the situation. With beans of the faithful slain on every side he cheerfully professed that when the elections were completed the Government would have a majority in the new House, and went on to speak about his desire to q;o on with important measures when Parliament met. No doubt {he was talking bravely to keep his courage up. The first question to decide is which party can command a majority in Parliament, and Sir Joseph Ward's bounden duty is to call members together as soon after the New Year as possible to enable it to lie known definitely who is to control the destinies of the Dominion.