AGRICULTURE ABROAD.

Lyttelton Times, Volume CXV, Issue 16508, 25 March 1914, Page 13

AGRICULTURE ABROAD.

wheat and meat production. At the tenth International Congress of Agriculture, the president of tho International Commission of Agriculture, M. Meline, formerly Prime Minister of Franco, made a notable speech, in the course of which ho said:—, "I wish, as my contribution to your labours, to bring before you to-day one single conclusion which appears to mo of such a nature as to give ns confidence in the future of the agricultural industry. This conclusion is reached by a close analysis of the general movement of production in the world as regards those two great necessities of life, corn and meat. "This work of analysis has for a long time been rendered impossible by the insufficiency and the lack of uniformity in the statistical records. Each country having different weights and measures, comparisons wore difficult, and tho general progress of production was obscure. "The International Agricultural Institute at Rome recently throw sonio light on this question by publishing complete information on the production of wheat in various countries for the last ten years, and for this wo are much indebted to the Institute. Tho French Ministry of Agriculture has dono more, for, with great labour, it has issued a comparative statement of the production of wheat in various countries for the last thirty years, converting all the foreign measures into the metric system.

"I will not touch upon those details of this statement which interest Franco except in respect of one important point. Tho statement in question shows that the production of wheat in Franco ■during the past thirty years has increased by 16,000,000 hectolitres, although the area cultivated has remained almost stationary, the increase being the result of an improved yield pethectare, or, in other words, the result of perseverance on the part of French agriculturists, and an advance in their cultural methods. "I come now to the world-produc-tion of wheat. I say 'world-produc-tion ' because the statement in question contains the analysis of tho production not only of wheat in Europe and America, but in Asia ('including India and Japan), Africa and Oceania. It shows that the total area under wheat in all these countries, which was 70.000,000 hectares from 1881 to 1890, rose to 90.000.0D0 in 1901 to 1910, during which period tho production also rose from (i'21,000,000 to 880.000,000 quintals. Tims tho area, cultivated has increased bv practically 36 per cent and the yield'by 41 per cent, the improvement in tlie yield being general. In this respect America shows an increaseof 55 per cent. Europe 02 per cent and Asia only 0 per cent. "But in order to be satisfied as to the future of the world's supply of bread, it is not sufficient to show that the yield of wheat continues to increase. It is necessary to consider two other important factors. One of these, the increase in tho population —that i<; io ; sav, in the number of consumers—may > he estimated fairly accurately. The. other factor is the growing requirements of consumption, which all over the world tend to concentrate more and more on bread, and especially bread of good quality. The extent 'd this factor is unknown, but it is increasingly active. When, however, one examines the first-mentioned factor, one finds that in Europe the population increases much more rapidly than the production; if, for instance, the latter is compared with the number of ' inhabitants at different periods, ono ! finds that tlie average production of j wheat in Europe has fallen in thirty years from 126 kilogr. to 117 kilogr. per head. Europe is, therefore, to-day deficient in its production of wheat despite the considerable yields of the rich granary of Ihissia, and it is to tho great wheatproducing countries of America that wo are more and more obliged to turn for the supplies necessary for our consumption; but on this side also the horizon is darkening, and it is already possible to foresee that in the near future tho yield of the New "World will no longer increase with tho increased consumption. The United States, vhich was half a century ago tho great wheat reservoir of the world, a "reservoir which was believed to ho inexhaustible, sees each year its reserves absorbed by the mounting tide of new consumers. " Up to 1900 the cultivation of wheat, it is true, considerably increased, for the area sown had grown from 14,000,000 to hectares; but since that year this upward movement has been arrested and tho yield has ceased to increase, whilst the number of mouths to bo fed has grown from (53,000,000 to 92,000,000. The result of this is naturally a decrease in tho surplus of the United States wheat available for exportation; these exports were on an average up to 1903 some 72,000,000 hectolitres, whereas to-day they stand at scarcely 20.000,000 or 2.5,000,000. One can thereforo foresee that, as the result of a really bad harvest, tho United States would,.in their turn, beeomo importers of wheat. "It is true that, sido by side with tho United States, there .is growing up a powerful people with immense agricultural territories at their disposal, which are in full development and which at first sight would seem able to take the place of the States in the production of wheat. I refer to Canada, the three great western provinces of which alono produce more than 40.000.000 hectolitres of wheat, and which exported in 1910 18,.000,000 hectolitres of grain and 5,000,000 hectolitres of flour. Hut here, again, one already begins to' see tho probability of a- falling-off in tho future: tho rapid growth "of the pomilation in Canada threatens, as in the United States, to absorb sooner or later all the surplus i of the harvest they are able to produce. ' During tho last ten years tho population of Canada, has grown by nearly 2,000,000, and immigration is constantly increasing. In 1910 the number of nersons that emigrated to Canada amounted to 303.000, of whom 124,000 came from the United States. "You see, therefore, tho great wheat markets outside Europe, which for a long time have been considered to provide an inexhaustible reserve, tending more and more to harden, and to bo reduced to supplying the needs of their increasing populations, who are attracted by the richness of tho soil and the facilities for making a profit out of their labours. "No doubt there remain othei sources in process of development, siich as Argentina and Australia, from which countries exports are already large, but even these will not suffice to make up for tho decrease from tho United States.

" From this brief and suggestive analysis of tho present world-production of wheat, I consfder that wo are justified in coming to 'the' conclusion that we have now arrived at a time when the desertion of tho rural areas tend 3 perceptibly to reduce, especially during the last ten years, tho production o. the supply necessary for the sustenance of mankind as regards the first and most important article of general consumption, wheat. "If wo now pass from wheat to that other article of food, meat, of which' the consumption per head of the_ population also "increases in proportion to the improvement in tho condition of life, we find an even less happy state of affairs; because one cannot increase a herd at will as one can increase the acreage grown with corn. Here again the great exporting countries outside Europe appear to ho reducing tho quantity of live stock iust at the timo when the demands of their own increasing populations require a larger quantity of meat supplies. "In-Canada the quantity of cattle,

sheep, and even pigs continues to diminish, so that the number of horned stock exported has fallen by 80,000 and of sheep by more than 400,000. I might add, in passing, that while Canada used to export some 12,000,000 poultry, it now exports none; it no longer exports eggs, but it is obliged to import them, although formerly it exported 11,000,000 doaen. "In the United States wo find tho same conidtion of things; for a long time a marked reduction has been apparent in the production of live stock. The results of tho last census show that from 1900 to 1910 all branches of live stock breeding have diminished, whilst the population has been increasing during the whole period. The falling-off has been 4 per cent in the case of cattle, 9 per cent in tho case of sheep and 1 per cent in respect of pigs. It is clear, thereforo, that unless the breeding ot live stock in that country again develops, the United States will soon have to make great sacrifices to feed its immenso population.

"I must ask you to forgive me for quoting so many dry and indigestible figures, but 1 desire, before this groat mooting of ropresntatives of tho world's agriculture, to put my finger on an. economic fact of tho "highest importance, because it is ono 'which should open the eyes of overyono to the necessity for taking precautionary measuroa. " Happy are those countries which have sufficient to supply the needs of their population. They are able to remain tranquil as to their futuro so long as they maintain their agriculture. As for tho other countries, they will be well advised not to wait until thoy arc affected by a general shortage of food. They will, of course, not dio of hunger, but they will have to pay exorbitant prices for their bread and their meat, and will bo obliged to search the world for their supplies. "Thus, after a long and tedious digression, for which 1 again apologise, 1. return naturally to my original starting point, the question of tho depopulation of the countryside, which tends to become a general characteristic. All countries arc interested in meeting this difficulty and in bringing back capital and labour to tho soil, if they do not wish to suffer cruelly from their culpable indifference to the situation. These who, in their improvidence, have allowed the evil to grow will be bound to pay a tribute of increasing weight to those privileged countries which will become tho masters of the economic position as regards exportation. "Civilised man can deny himself many things, but he is unable to get on without food, and the more he is civilised the more exacting he is as to his nourishment, and he will therefore make every sort of sacrifice in order to continue the manner of existence to which he has become accustomed. In this way. through tho force of circumstances, if other means fail, the return to the land will be brought about by natural causes. The desire for gain will bring back the workers to the soil, just as it has led them to the factories. Agricultural workers must be paid such wages as are necessary to retain their services, and farmers, like other employers, will add tin's increase in tho cost of production to the price charged for their produce. In this way the proper balance, -which has been broken

for so long to the detriment of agriculture, will be re-established to its advantage. " But you may say, 'lf those things happen living will become more and more dear, and already to-day times aro hard enough.' Complaints are general, and everyone asks himself _to-day how things will be to-morrow. I do nob dream of denying it, and I regret as much as anyone the hardness of modern existence. It is in order to make that existence easier and to put a limit to the present state of things that I utter this warning _ and never cease to draw attention to the unfortunate consequences of the desertion, of the countryside.

"I draw attention to them in the hopo that the evil itself may be productive of the remedy. I know indeed of only one means, but it is a decisive means, of checking the rise hi the price of food, and that is by continuously increasing production, the comparative scarceness of foodstuffs in the world being the main cause of their hig'a prices. "One must bring back to the land some part of the, unthinking crowds which pour into the groat towns, crowds winch the State seems to wish to draw into and retain in these centres. In

order to counterbalance the attractions of town life wo must give agricultural labourers houses as comfortable as those built for town workers. Wo must endeavour to turn them into sma'l owners in order to bind them, to the soil. Life in the village must be made more agreeable, and middle-class landowners must set a good example by not disdaining to cultivate their own land. The education given to women should create in them a love and oride in the agricultural profession. The agriculturist should bo regarded as a public benefactor, and education, art and literature should be the advocates of a rural life. So will the balance between agriculture and other industries, between the country and the town, be reestablished, and we shall once moro enjoy the benefits of cheap living."