THE H.B. TRIBUNE THURSDAY, OCTOBER 13, 1932 REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT?

Hawke's Bay Tribune, Volume XXII, Issue 257, 13 October 1932, Page 6

THE H.B. TRIBUNE THURSDAY, OCTOBER 13, 1932 REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT?

A New York message tells us to-day of ex-President Calvin Coolidge “opening the final intensive drive for Mr. Hoover’s reelection” to the presidential chair of the United States, and occasion may be taken for some further reference to the factors that are most likely to influence the result of the contest between him and the Democrat candidate, Mr. Franklin Roosevelt. It is not at all probable that in the election itself world affairs will very much trouble individual voters immersed in the country’s domestic difficulties. Still, it may readily be conceived that their ultimate choice will have a quite appreciable bearing upon the policy adopted towards other nations.

As a general rule it may be said that in the past the man in office has had a very distinct advantage when seeking another, term. In the present case, however this advantage is very considerably discounted by the hard times that have marked the last year or more of Mr. Hoover’s administration. How far the adverse impression thus created, however unreasonably, may be counteracted by recent governmental measures taken for mending matters wijl probably depend very mueh upon whether actual beneficial results make themselves apparent before election day, now barely four weeks off. Just at present neither stock exchange nor commodity market reports would seem very favourable to Mr. Hoover’s cause, but even in so short a time the face of things in this respect may easily be materially changed. In a general way, again, it may be said that, on past figures,

Mr. Hoover should be at a distinct advantage in being the Republican candidate. It is many years now since a Democrat has been given the freedom of White House in a straight-out contest, such as the present, between the two main parties. In the case of both Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson, the two latest Democrats to secure that honour, their success was obviously due to splits in the ranks of their opponents. In next month's election t ,e only thing that would seem at all likely to bring about Republican defections is the prohibition issue, and it is quite possible that this may affect both candidates so nearly equally as to make no very great eventual difference Both have pronounced for some cation of the existing law, but it may be said that the Democrat proposals carry matters a good deal further than the Republican. It is quite interesting to note how this is expected to work out. That Mr. Hoover is likely to get the vote of the great majority of till convinced prohibitionists goes almost without saying. But it is also held that, as the apostle for retaining the stronger hold on the liquor traffic, he is likewise likely to get a practically bloc 1 vote from the many thousands of “bootleggers” and “speak-easy” proprietors who have been batten ing on illicit alcoholic trading. Besides this, with the influences these gentry can exercise with the millions of dollars at their command, they are quite likely to carry many tens of thousands with them. On the other hand, it is said that Mr. Roosevelt will get a strong body of support from those who have come to recognise in absolute prohibition an ideal which is impossible of attainment and the attempts at which have brought not only the Volstead law, but the law in general into contempt.

In this connection special attention is drawn to the recent State elections in Maine, where the Democrats have scored a quite spectacular triumph. The significance of this’victory can be fully understood only if we bear in mind that this New England State is traditionally both Republican and “dry.” On the other hand, in the Southern States, where total abstinence can scarcely be said be a general practice on the part of the white population, very many of them are afraid as to what may be the effect among the coloured people should access to strong liquors be made easier. It is thus seen that there are many strange reactions to be taken into account and, despite the expressions of confidence that are coming from either side, dispassionate onlookers are quite prepared for a very close contest, with the chances slightly in favour of Mr. Hoover. As has been indicated, for outside nations there may not be very much to choose between him and his opponent, though it may be that with regard to both war-debts and tariffs Mr. Roosevelt would appear to have indicated the more elastic views. In any event, it has not to be forgotten that, though the election will be virtually decided early next month, it will not be until the following March that the victor will resume or assume the reins of office. It is thus pretty well assured that it will be Mr. Hoover who will direct American policy at the World Economic Conference to be held towards the end of this year or the beginning of next.