THE H.B. TRIBUNE MONDAY, MAY 28, 1928 JAPAN’S QUANDARY

Hawke's Bay Tribune, Volume XVIII, Issue 140, 28 May 1928, Page 4

THE H.B. TRIBUNE MONDAY, MAY 28, 1928 JAPAN’S QUANDARY

A s was said when dealing, a week or more ago, witn the seemingly triumphal march of the Southern Nationalist forces on Peking, there is no saying what unexpected turn events may take in a land of such changing surprises as China. Already tne prudence of this reservation is shown by the week-end cable news. This indicates that ‘ Chang Tso-lin’s Northern forces have been reorganised and have rallied to such an extent that the Southern armies have not only been checked but have at certain points been thrown back. How long this Northern advantage may be maintained it is, of course, impossible even to conjecture. • The main point of interest just now for the outside world is that the stay of the Nationalist menace to the Northern capital will give the Japanese authorities more time to consider the line of action to be finally adopted and carried through. The success that was attending the arms of Chiang Kaishek was making Japan’s position most critically embarrassing and the maintenance of her promised neutrality increasingly difficult if Japanese interests in Northern China, and particularly in Manchuria, were to be effectively protected. The difficulty was in no way eased by the consciousness that Japanese movements are being watched with an especially jealous eye by the United States.

The London “Times” discussed some five weeks ago, the possible development of just such a situation as has arisen. It then said that the struggle was influenced by an international factor of the greatest importance. The civil war had moved into an area in which Japan takes a special interest, and what was last year more particularly a British problem had now become more particularly a problem for Japan. The possible effect of the movement, such as has now taken place, of substantial Japanese protective troops into Chinese territory was then examined and it was pointed out that, though Japan has in the past manifested a distinct inclination to support Chang Tso-lin, the dictator ,of Manchuria, she has latterly had there definite troubles directly due to Chang’s own subordinates. The strong position established by her railway administration in that territory of vast promise appears to have been threatened by a purely Chinese rival line, which is being constructed in breach of Japan’s treaty rights. When completed it would tap an exceedingly rich area independently of the line owned by Japanese and so undermine Japan’s practical monopoly in that area. Beyond this there is very considerable and scarcely restricted Chinese aggression against Japanese residents said to be exercising only the rights conferred upon them by treaty. Alto gether Chang Tso-lin is latterly proving anything but a satisfactory associate for Japan, with whom the maintenance of her position in Manchuria is a national issue, but one that obviously cannot be supported by force of arms without stirring further trouble not only with China but elsewhereIn one of to-day’s cables the possibility is suggested of an arrangemeht for the cessation of war and for some diplomatic agreement. Something of this kind was also foieshadowed by the

‘Tinies,’' ■■lab was impressed with, (hq fact that thqre is xio very

reliable cohesion among those at present opposed to the Northern war-lord. Though Chiang Kaishek, with a Government quartered at Nanking, is nominally in control of the Nationalist fortunes, there is at present no enthusiasm for his leadership either in Canton, whence he started, or in Wuhan (Hankow), from which a big section of the Southern forces operate. Then, Feng Yu-hsiang, now co-operating with him inland, is a notorious “trimmer.” His position is therefore by no means secure. Indeed, his present great military effort may perhaps be regarded as being dictated by that fact, with disastrous consequences looming up in case of failure. It may well be, therefore, that Chiang Kai-shek will be quite ready to listen to any reasonable proposals that may be submitted to him. - Japan, on the other hand, would be only too glad to assist in effecting a compromise that would extricate her from the most unsatisfactory dilemma in which she now finds herself involved.