THE H.B. TRIBUNE. THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6, 1923. TO-DAY’S ELECTION.

Hawke's Bay Tribune, Volume XIII, Issue 301, 6 December 1923, Page 4

THE H.B. TRIBUNE. THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6, 1923. TO-DAY’S ELECTION.

The general election that is in progress to-day in the Old Country is being described as the most important that has been held for some decades. This is probably something of an exaggeration, though it cannot be denied that it is one involving a particular issue of grave significance. This, however, involves nothing of an irrevocable nature, and is confessedly largely in ' the way of experiment as an alternative to a policy that, judged by conditions arising under it, is manifestly inappropriate to the day. As a matter of fact the importance of any particular election is not to be gauged by the immediate noise of the clash of conflict, but is to be assessed only when we can recognise the effects that it has brought about. Many times the House of Commons has been quite quietly filled with men who have quite as quietly taken decisions that have entirely altered the course of British history. Th present election is being ostensibly fought on an issue which is being debated as of purely domestic concern, although it is one in which Britain’s- trade rivals are no doubt taking a very lively and anxious interest. The appeal that is being made to the great mass of voters is based, on all sides, upon a consideration as to how the change that isproposed is likely to affect them in their home lives —whether or not it is going to enable them to live more comfortably than they have recently been doing under the free-trade regime that has held so long. It is on account of this so intimate relation to their daily lives that the result of the election is being talked of as being of such vital importance. Whether the great body of electors are sufficiently versed in the complexities and intricacies of international trade to give an intelligent answer to the question may well be doubted, as may also the qualifications of many of the political leaders to .instruct their ignorance. How, for instance, are lawyer-politicians like Mr. Asquith and Lord Birkenhead, or even Mr. Lloyd George to be expected to know much about trade reactions, or to regard the question of Protection and Free Trade as of interest otherwise than as it may be turned to political uses? Beyond the issue upon which the election has been called, and upon which it was supposed to be fought, there have been innumerable others introduced to obscure it and, as is so often the case, the country’s “mandate” upon it will be discernible only if evidenced by a very decisive majority. To-day’s messages afford a striking instance as to how I attention is being diverted from the | main point when they tell us how the

Rothermere Press, the successor of the Northcliffe newspaper aggregation, which addresses some three or four million readers, has at the finish side-stepped it altogether, directing its criticisms of the Government to entirely different and sev-inungly remote questions of external policy. The Labour Party, too, have declined to face the election upon the question which compelled the Government to go to the country in honour of a dead leader’s pledge. They, too, have introduced a whole lot of far-fetched generalities, which, if not to be characterised as visionary, are still most certainly unattainable in time to save the country from the industrial and economic disaster that so imminently threatens. The Liberal Party have stuck fairly well to the main point, but from them also there can be drawn no evidence supporting the prospect of any change which will relieve the present distressing situation. With them moreover, we have to take it into account that, despite the dramatic “reconciliations” that have taken place, there must ‘be grave doubt's as to the real healing of the breach between the Asquith and the Lloyd George factions. More particularly must misgivings be felt as to the sincerity of the reunion inasmuch as we have never yet heard who is to be regarded as the leader of the reunited party—Asquith, Lloyd George, or who?

The cabled forecasts of party representation as it will be after the election is over are more amusing than instructive, they are, except in the case of the “Times,” so obviously the outcome of desire rather than of expectation. However, it may be worth while collating them, if only to make them readily available for comparisons with the actual figures when announced. As a preliminariy we may also include the present constitution of the House so far as we can judge it.

It will be noted that, for lack of definite information in the one case and through indecision of opinion in the other, in the first and last of these six lines of figures only 605 out i of the full 615 seats are accounted] for. In four out of the five forecasts it will be seen that the present Government is credited with an absolute majority, though in two cases a very meagre one. The Liberal estimate, based on the “wave” theory apparently, places its own party’s num-| bers almost on a par with those of the Conservatives, whom it reduces to a very decided minority. How this is to be reconciled with Mr Lloyd George’s so. widely differing figures it is difficult to guess. Nor, on the other hand, can Mr. Lloyd George’s figures be made to tally with his simultaneous cryptic declaration that, ‘'whatever the result of the election, Liberalism would win such a triumph as had not been won for many a day.” However, we have more than once, before elections, heard a great deal of “returning waves of Liberalism” without, in the event, finding existing governments in anywise badly swamped, and probably here again we shall have another instance of the same outcome. The rr Times” forecast is, of course, likely to be the most dispassionate and therefore most reliable. But election vaticinations have rarely proved of very great value, and all that may be hoped is that some decisive verdict will be given that will pr(-vde the stability of government so manifestly needed.

Con. Lab. Lib. Other Present House. 339 140 117 Forecasts by— Liberals ... 248 120 240 7 Labour .... 310 160 139 6 Conservative . 332 120 157 6 Lloyd George. 309 “Times” .. 334 140 160 6 139 126 6