THE H.B TRIBUNE. THURSDAY, NOV. 2nd, 1916. THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Hawke's Bay Tribune, Volume VI, Issue 272, 2 November 1916, Page 4

THE H.B TRIBUNE. THURSDAY, NOV. 2nd, 1916. THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Although we may not have very much direct, interest in the result of the American Presidential election which comes up for decision next week—the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November —still it raav have some moral consequences that will affect the situation. Some discussion of the prospects of the respective candidates is thus not out of place just now. A recent cablegram made reference to two questions which, at the present time, are thought likely to have a determining effect in the contest —the conduct of American foreign policy, which may prove to have been further complicated by Germany’s latest submarining activities, and the settlement of the strike of railway servants. A Sydney writer reviewing the position says that in any other year President Wilson’s record of domestic legislation would have been regarded as sufficiently important and sufficiently controversial to inspire the enthusiasm of his friends and the denunciation of the now reunited Republican Party. Few Americans have been able to do so much positive work within the limits of the Federal Constitution. The reform of the tariff and of the currency, the passing of the Rural Credits'Bill called by its advocates the Magna Charta of American farm finance, and the enactment of an eight-hours day on all the vehicles of inter-State commerce, are achievements which must have made a deep impression on a large body of electors, and the last-mentioned is especially calculated to bring Dr. Wilson many votes. The Rural Credits Bill, designed to relieve farmers from the heavy rates of interest which they have hitherto had to ria}’ for financial accommodaion, is also sure to influence a large number of country votes.

Mr. Hughes, on the other hand, has two strong strings to his bow in his advocacy of female suffrage and his pledge to reform the existing system of patronage in the civil service. The most widely quoted passage in his speech on his acceptance of the Republican nomination was his direct statement that, despite hiis opponent’s professions of perfect rectitude, the gift of public offices had been used for the paying of rewards for polirical services rendered, and his pledge that he himself, if elected, would consider only merit and efficiency. His record as Governor of New York, and as an unsparing investigator o f the insurrance scandals provides quite sufficient proof that he has ’both the will and the abiliy to make good his promise. In a year in which domestic politics were given their customary weight the abolition of political patronage would have been a cause which would have appealed to many American citizens more than the well-worn discussion of tariffs and trusts. But this year the absorbing topic, at least in the Eastern States, is the war and its reaction upon American politics. “Which of the candidates, then, is the more, likely to do honour to the United States in negotiating with the belligerents ’ Which of them is the more likely to help America so that, even if sue never has to go to war, she will be strong enough to compel other nations to respect her interests in peace !” In attempting to answer these questions the writer from whom we have quoted says that some months ago the reply would have been decisively in favour of Mr. Hughes. He was as keen an advocate for preparation as Dr. Wilson ; he had no record of undignified failure in Mexico, or of doubtful success in handling international questions with - Europe; and he could disavow his most bellicose supporter if his denunciation of the President grew too loud. But, we are told, if the betting men are to ! be trusted, Mr. Hughes will suffer more than Dr. Wilson from this absorption of the nation in the war, which had been made the test of character. The nation has looked for decision of character in their leader, but it has been disappointed to find in Mr. Hughes a manifest disposition to hesitate and temporise, and there is therefore a probability of an unlooked-for occurrence in American history—the. reelection of a Democratic President for his second successive term. What is said to make this prospect the more surprising is that on one branch of his foreign policy President- Wilson stands convicted of a sudden change of opinion, and on another he has had a fairly strong minority of his own party against him. It was only a few months back that President- Wilson openly declared his opinion that the existing army and navy of the .United States were quite sufficiently strong. From this attitude, however, he has receded, and he has been responsible for quite a new policy of military and naval development, to whicli he has given practical expression in securing from Congress large votes for expansion —enough to bring the country into the position of the second naval power of the. world, thus affording the most convincing evidence of the sincerity of his own conversion. The other question, that of the President’s refusal . to entertain Germany's suggestion that American subjects should not be permitted to travel .on armed merchantmen, has not had so much public discussion, so that, its influence cannot very 7 well be gauged. But is was certainly adversely criticised 'by many Democrats. and was accepted only because of the danger of taking control of foreign policy out- of the hands of the Executive. On the other hand, the torpedoing of the Sussex, after the ostensible success of negotiations with Germany,, was taken as a proof that the President was being laughed at because he was unwilling to back his words with deeds. As has already been hinted, the recent sinking of the Marina, and the consequent loss of a number of American lives, will provide another n - '.<i, but possibly the President may manage to

avoid the necessity for coming to anv decision before the election takes place. In the coming election the President will be denounced both for his failure to prot—t effectually against German outrages, for liis failure to forbid the export of military material, for his ineffective protests against the British black-listing of American firms, the censorship of cable news in transit from Germany, and the inspection of mails on neutral ships. Much may be forgiven him, however. on account of the old-estab-lished policv of keeping our of European quarrels. The election thus bears a very open aspect, but Dr Wilson’s re-elect inn is considered the more probable result.