Hawke's Bay Herald WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 6, 1904. THE FAR EAST.

Hawke's Bay Herald, Volume XXXIX, Issue 12647, 6 January 1904, Page 2

Hawke's Bay Herald WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 6, 1904. THE FAR EAST.

The news which comes to us from day to day appears to grow more and more gloomy. It is difficult, in our view, to hope for any peaceful ending to the present negotiations. We have only to try and put ourselves in the position of the Japanese and this conclusion is only too evident. For the Japanese have to do with a Power whose word cannot be trusted, a Power which is determined to grab not only Manchuria but apparently Corea, and which is clearly manoeuvring at present for no other purpose but to gain time. Sooner or later the conflict must come, and from the Japanese point of view better sooner than later. Every month’s delay will only enable Russia to strengthen her position, to reinforce her garrisons, augment her fleet and increase her stores.

It is, of course, pure speculation to attempt any forecast of the result of the struggle. It is difficult to believe that Japan can win in the end. There are, however, several considerations in her favour. She is much nearer to the seat of action, and she could carry on a war at comparatively small expense’, while Russia would find a campaign in the Far East very costly. This advantage of position makes in favour of Japan in another way. It will enable her to put an army in the field which will vastly surpass any force that Russia can oppose to her for some time to come. If she is prepared to strike at once Japan will be able to do very extensive damage, assuming that the quality of her land forces is comparable to that of the Russian troops. That, of course, is by no means certain. There are those who profess to despise the Japanese soldier. He is, however, admittedly plucky and long-suffering, and, given the necessary weight of numbers, should give a good acount of himself. In the cable news which appears in our present issue it is hinted that Japan might content herself with garrisoning Corea. It appears to us that to do so would be playing Rusia’s game. It would be simply deferring the inevitable conflict. If Japan is to succeed at all it will be by.; attacking and separating the present Rusian forces in the East before re-

inforcements can arrive. The campaign 1 must be offensive on her part, and we do not doubt that both parties under* stand that quite well. There is more them (4 hint that the Chinese Will throw in their lot with Japan, That will undoubtedly mAkte things harder for Russia. tth value of the GMAeSft by himself is Small, hot there is no telling what he

Mglit be made were he led by Japanese officers and stiffened by Japanese troops. At all events, it is clear that if the Chinese take a hand ifiay hamper the Eusstah feces very seriously, and th particular may render the M&ttcburian railway unsafe for the passage of supplies arid reinforcements. If they only succeeded in dividing the Eussian forces they would make the position very much met® difficult for Admiral Alesdelt-. Thfe same may be said of the Chinese cruisers. Judging from the performance of the Chinese mvy ten years ago it is not a very dangerous force. But, added to the Jnnnnoco fioof. rnnirnllpfl and snrmnrted

uctpaaestj ueeu, cuuwuuou auu ou^pucu by Japanese officers and vessels, it becomes at once a very different matter. As we have already said, we do not feel at all sanguine of the Japanese chance of success. But we canftot conceive a high-spirited race such as the Japanese Undoubtedly ate submitting to the Russian advance without a

struggle. The result of a war is always more or less uncertain, and it does not follow that the bigger nation always wins. The Japanese may gather hope from the consideration of the Eusso-Turkish war of 1877, or even of the late South African war. Everything depends on the skill of the officers and the morale of the men, and there is really no means of comparing the two opponents in the Far East in these respects.