Hawke's Bay Herald. SATURDAY, JUNE 2, 1877.

Hawke's Bay Herald, Volume XX, Issue 3922, 2 June 1877, Page 2

Hawke's Bay Herald. SATURDAY, JUNE 2, 1877.

The European news received by cablegram under date Singapore May 31, may turn out to be news of a very grave character indeed. The .Russian ambassadors at Berlin, Vienna, and London have all left, we are told, for St. Petersburg. The recall of ambassadors is, ordinarily, the immediate prelude to a declaration of war, and we are now face to face with the question, Is Russia npon the point of declaring war against Germany, Austria, and England ? If we look at the question in the light of anterior probability, Aye should say, at once, it cannot be. There is nothing in the neAvs recently received to lead up to such an issue. The telegrams of the day previous — May 30 — are to the effect that the official Press of Berlin was then impressing on its readers the desirableness of German neutrality, while the official Press of

St. Petersburg was anxious to assure England that Russia would not interfere with British interests. A few days previously to this we had heard that, in London, consols had risen to 95. Evidently up to the very eve of the departure of the ambassadors an immediate rapture was the last thing dreamt of in the capitals cither of Russia, Germany, or England, and it is hardly to be conceived that the whole situation could have changed within twentyfour hours without the faintest note of warning. It is not very long since Great ! Britain recalled its ambassador, Sir Henry Elliot, from Constantinople, and sent out, in his place, another, Mr Layard. The change was significant of a new departure in English policy in regard to the Eastern question. It is, perhaps, just possible that Russia similarly contemplates a new departure in her foreign policy, and is therefore about to change the personnel of her plenipotentiarate. The Czar is reported to have said to General Igiiatieff, on the eve of the outbreak of the Avar with Turkey, " You have got us into this mess, and now you must get us out of it the best way you can." Possibly, by this time, he has come to think that the only way to get oiit of it is to get rid of the whole batch of diplomatists who have got him into it. Prince Gortschakoff's visit to Ployesti may perhaps form a convenient opportunity for entrusting the chief management of the Russian foreign department to other hands than his. The Czar is well known to have been, from the first, an ardent advocate of peace, and there appeared to be good reason to believe that, of late, the opinion of the influential classes in St. Petersburg had come round more or less to conformity with his. The Russo-Servian campaign against Turkey had, to the intense disgust of enthusiastic philo-slavs, become the theme of fashionable ridicule in the Muscovite capital. The Russians, too, have had a good deal already in the brief history of the present campaign to give strength to the pacific tendency of public opinion. They must see now that the Avar will be a protracted one, and, consequently, an enormously expensive one, and the most intelligent and patriotic among them are, no doubt, desirous of seeing it put an end to, even at the expense of abandoning some of their pretensions. It may further be remarked that whatever may be thought of the anterior probability of war between Russia and England, or between Russia and Austria, we should need to be informed in very explicit language, indeed, that a rupture was aboiit to take place between Russia and Germany before we could accept the information as correct. The relations between the Emperor William and his nephew the Czar are known to be most intimate and CA'en affectionate, and the personal relations of crowned heads still count for a good deal among the Powers of the continent. Germany too has no interests at stake in connection with the Eastern Question. The Danube is a mere stream before it leaves German territory and enters Austria, and the amount of German produce that goes down it is trifling. A period of rest from Avar is urgently needed by the new Empire in order to consolidate itself, and is eagerly and unanimously desired by its population. In view of the aboA r e considerations, Aye think it would be unwise to accept as a definite conclusion, at any rate, Avhat the cable telegram of the 31st ult., at the first glance, Avould appear to indicate. At the same time, it must be said that facts are stubborn things, and avc haA'e the fact to reckon with, that the telegram informs us of the departure of the Ambassadors from the three capitals. It Avas looked upon in some quarters as significant that Prince Bismark resigned office on the day that the Protocol Avas signed, and it may be thought that his return to power has marked a change of front on the part of Germany, in regard to the Eastern Question, and that the great Chancellor is iioav the head of a coalition formed Avith the A'iew of keeping Russian pretensions in check. Should Germany adopt such a line, it cannot be said that it is beyond the bounds of possibility that she would find allies in England and Austria. There is no denying that the tendency of the extension of Russian power, especially in Asia, is to diminish English influence and curtail English commerce ; and if England saw the opportunity of stepping in to check it, in company Avith such OA'erwhehningly powerful associates, the temptation Avould perhaps be too strong to be resisted. It could not, moreoA'er, be a matter of surprise to anyone to see Austro - Hungary take part in the alliance. The Russo-Turkish war, if it ends in any way except in the maintenance of the st't.tus quo, threatens her very existence. Supposing such an alliance to be formed, however — with such enormous resources as it Avcmlcl possess in men and money— is it to bo conceived that Russia, half bankrupt as she is, and little more than a match so far for the Turks, avouUl attempt to cope Avith it single-handed 1 It may be .suggested, however, that, perhaps, she is not single-handed. It may be that she can count on assistance from France. If she can, it is hardly credible that Aye should have heard nothing of it before, and, even with France's assistance, it is not easily to be believed that she Avill fee) herself to lie in a position to defy the rest of Europe. We shall await Avith much anxiety the neAvs of the next day or two. In the meantime, we are disposed to predict that its tenor will be such as to shew that the telegram of the 31st ult. is not to be read as meaning that the ciA-iliscd world has, suddenly and Avithout premonition, leaped to arms.