THE STATE OF TRADE AT HOME.

Hawke's Bay Herald, Volume XX, Issue 3896, 12 April 1877, Page 2

THE STATE OF TRADE AT HOME.

The commercial world has been for a long time watching with anxious interest to detect the signs of a general revival of trade: but hitherto, unfortunately, the indications of improvement have been obscure and evanescent. British commerce, it is true, has not suffered as severely as that of the United States or Germany, but it has shared m the universal depression of the past "three years, and it has'showtt kr 7. f %& ""P^.tow^s.a renewal of Activity. It is natural that iheft " , of business shduld be assiduous in f eeluie the pitise of national commerce, and the Monthly Returns, of Trade and Navigal tion supply the most accessible an& effective tests. We believe there is grave reason for suspecting that these statistifei are iibt strictly accurate, but etrdrs in Sei -\ tail are probably compensated by the i&- - ~> mense number of the particulars, redundancy in one case -being set off bri the average against, deficiency in another: -At any rate^ the trade arid navigation refovhs are the most familiar, and probably the most useful, evidence that we possess witft respeot to the course of <nir Rational qoiii* merce> The returns fdr the montii'df January last, offering a comparison' with those for the same month in the year 1875 and 1876, disclose a slight improvement in a few of the most important brandies of trade ; but in others a continued stagnation is apparent, and in one or two there are even symptoms of a further decline. The imports take precedence of the exports in the trade returns, arid-may, therefore, be' considered first, though perhaps, the converse arrangement would be in some respects more logical and con* venient. It January last we imported from foreign countries and British colonies commodities to the Value of nearly thirty^three millions sterling— about two millions and a quarter more than in the same month of 1876; and half a million more than in the same month of " 1875. ' Among the particulars :of im.portation we look first at thefoodsup; ..- plies. The wheat imported during thß '"'■ month was less in quantity arid in value by one-third than that taken in -1876, but a little greater in- quantity and considerably greater m value than the imports of 1875. There was a decrease also in the supply of live animals— cattle, sheep; and swine— as compared with 1876, : but a slight increase over 1875. ' The most noticeable change is in the supply of fresh beef, due, doxibtless, to the latelydeveloped, trade with* the United States. In January, 1875, we importedit to 'the value of £10,456 only, and iri January 1876, to the value of £13,683 -Abut last month: the. imports reached £87,768 r The quantities of preserved meat of every « kind increased in some cases ' by onethird, in others by one-half. The same r thing is seen in the entries of other food supplies. All this goes to prove that the apparent stagnation : . -of business has not yet seriously - affected the physical comfort and well-being of the majority of the people. When one sourceof supply is closed.or narrowed others are immediately opened up ; arid'the iinpdrtation of American meat would go along way to mitigate the pressure of a icafcfcle-: plague panic. But more important than the. food supplies is the, demand fdrraw material, which shows whether our main industries are healthily activei -livery many branches of industry this demand : during the past month compares' most favorably not only with the depressed level of 1876, but even with 1875. Thus we imported in January last 2,448,000 cwt. s of raw cotton, compared with 1,917000 cwt. in January, 1875 • 161,000 oM: of flax, compared with 69,000 cwt., in 1875 ; and 30 million pounds of wool^ compared with 24 millions in 1875. • Other! classes of raw materials, it is true, exhibit a decrease in importation, as unrefined sugar, jute, and silk. But while 1 the cotton and woollen industries are making larger demands upon the producing. count tries, we cannot be justified in taking I a desponding view of the temporary depression of our trade and the falling-off of the exports. Fortunately, British industry is founded upon a solid basis of home trade J and when our commerce with foreign countries meets with a check, our manufacturers can afford to bide their time'Srid to encounter the slack tide of fortuue with cheerful endurance. . At the same time it must be admitted that the^Sme" has come when a change for the better will be regarded as a welcome deliyerance from a painful if not a perilous situation. The condition of our export trade, as shown by these returns, is such as to de- * mand all our fortitude and confidence in the native resources of the British manufacturer and merchant. The. total' value. of the exports for the month of January was £15,946,000, or considerably less: thin half the. value of the imports for the same period. Moreover, this amount exhibits a progressive decline when compared withthe values of the exports in the samemonth of 1875 and 1876. . Since. 1875 there has been a falling-off of more, than one million sterling. Nor is there much. consolation to be derived from a glance at the details of the various industries. Take the cotton manufacture, which shows a fair increase in quantity under the heads both of piece goods and of yarn, &c,; the values, nevertheless, in consequence of the fall in prices, have hardly increased at all. Thus, although the piece goods' ei'i ported in January last amounted Mjk 328 millions of yards, compared with 290 A milllions in 1875, the values returned were £4,308,000 for the former and £4,367,000 for the latter year. In the linen manufacture, the quantity exported remains almost unaltered, but the value has fallen by eight or ten per cent. In the jute trade the same symptoms are discernible. In the woollen manufacture the amount of the decrease in the value of the exports is alarming. In 1875 and 1876 the returns for the month showed that the! exports were to the value in each case of about two millions sterling, but last month it wasJ found thatthey had declined to £1,578, OOoT^ It is almost needless to say, that the exports of iron have 'riot only diminished .in quantity, but have fallen about thirty per* cent, in value. Nor are there any industries much more fortunate than these great pillars of our trade. Yet the dismal aspect presented by this array of diminishing exports and declining prices must not be allowed to dishearten the British merchant or manufacturer. The contimiance of the check upon exportation is due, in part at least, to causes which have nothing to do with the energies and the capacities of British commerce, and from which our neighbors and rivals are s\iffering as well as we. The political uncertainty which has now lasted so long still exercises a paralysing influence over the commerce of the world, and as we deal with all civillised nations we are affected indirectly by their perturbations and anxieties no less than directly by our own. But some of our best customers, our possible rivals, have been so much more unfortunate than we that while our trade suffers only by the straitened market, theirs has been almost destroyed. The condition of manufacturing industry in the United States is pictured as . deplorable by the most recent, the shrewdest, and the most impartial observers. So far are we from rejoicing at the misfortunes of these competitors that i we can point to the evils which their - losses of necessity inflict upon us. A country in which commerce is palsied . ceases to be a good customer. In this r ay our trade with the United States has fallen off year by year since the collapse of business credit in America more than three years ago. A revival of enterprise on the other side of the Atlantic would . soon, probably, have a satisfactory effect upon the exportations from this side. But such a revival seems as yet distant. In the United States its development has been 'hindered by political difficulties,' as in Europe by the vague dread of a general war.