THREE MILLIONS OF UNEMPLOYED IN U.S.A.- NOT THOUGHT SERIOUS

Grey River Argus, 21 February 1949, Page 5

THREE MILLIONS OF UNEMPLOYED IN U.S.A.NOT THOUGHT SERIOUS

(Rec. 10.30). WASHINGTON, Feb. 19. The present United States unemployment figure is estimated at three millions by Mr Ewan Clague, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labour Statistics. This compares with a total in the middle of January of two million seven hundred thousand.

The initial claims for unemployment benefits by newly-unemployed workers averaged 368,000 a week during January, but they eased to 334,454 a week during the week ended February 12. Mr Clague said that the “more than seasonal” drop in employment did not m?an that America' was out of the full employment era. He termed the two million figure “as low as it could be” in America’s progressing economy, which was subject to sudden changes in industry which threw people out of work. Not until unemployment reached a sustained total of four million to five million would there be an unemployment problem requiring action. The drop in employment in nonrural industries from December’ 15 to January 15 was one million 750 thousand, but Mr Clague said that this should be viewed- in the light of three important facts. First, the employment in December was the highest for any December in America’s history. Secondly, the December to January reduction in employment was mainly seasonal. Thirdly, the reduction was small and select, hitting mostly manufacturing industries. Mr Clague attributed a drop in manufacturing employment to the overtaking of war-time shortages. He said that the exact size and significance of the drop in employment could not be measured until April. I,Meanwhile, the Treasury Department economists interpret as a healthyy sign increased sales of Government bonds, and fewer redemptions in 1948. It is also interpreted as showing that Americans are becoming more cautious in their spending habits, at least until the outcome of the present adjustment becomes clearer.

Disinflation !

WASHINGTON, Feb. 19

Dr E. G. Nourse, the chief economic adviser of President Truman, said the United States had entered a healthy period of “disinflation” that would not lead to a recession unless the public became jittery. Alter discussing the economic outlook with President Truman, he shared the President’s optimism, bift he did not quite agree with his choice of words. Mr Truman had said that recent price drops had amounted to the levelling off which everybody had been wanting. “It gives a lot of people the idea that prices are going to be fairly stable,” said Dr Nourse. “Instead of a smooth situation, I think we can look for a choppy situation, with both ups and downs.” He expected that when prices did, stabilise they would be at a lowerlevel than at present, but higher than before the war.

Dr Nourse warned that if the public worked themselves into a jittery stage, the recent price adjustment might snowball into a recession.

AMERICANS PAY FEWER “PREMIUMS”

(By William Hardcastle, a Reuter Correspondent in Washington). The last of the black and grey markets are now disappearing in the United States. Sheet steel, a few popular makes of car, and flats are about the only things left on which buyers are willing to pay premiums. Otherwise,. American consumers can get almost anything they want at prices which, even if they are much higher than they were, are at least considerably more reasonable than they were only a few months ago. Perhaps the most interesting develooment has occurred in the steel market. Grey market sheet steel, a critically scarce item only last summer, is now selling at about £42 10s a ton, compared with about £57 10s to about £62 10s less than six months ago. The habit of selling new cars as second hand and making them several hundred dollars higher than list price is also disappearing. All the more expensive cars can be had for the asking. The waiting list, which at one time seemed as if it would never end, now exists .only in the case of the cheaper, large-selling makes such as Ford, Chevrolet and Plymouth. Even these can be had more quickly and without the host of extras with which the dealer used to plage the customer and extract from him several hundred dollars over the list price. Housing geenrally is much less scarce, although low-rent flats continue at a premium; so do low cost houses —but the middle of high cost houses and flats are becoming progressively easier to find. Many industries are already feeling the pinch of over production. The hundred and one appliances including wireless sets electric irons, washing machines and refrigerators, which appeal to the average American so much are beginning to pile up on shopkeepers’ shelves. The same is true of furniture. This and the clothing trade appear to be about to start a price cutting war. Radio manufacturers have hit a major slunp but are now compensating themselves for it by a boom in television, where production has not yet caught up with the sudden demand. The days when meat, butter and sugar were short in the grocery stores have long passed. Even the high prices have eased slightly in recent eweks. One basic household item, soap, has dropped in price in recent weeks and a considerable advertising battle is raging between its manufacturers. In many cities hotels which, not so many months ago were so full that the only way to get a room was to bribe the clerks, are now looking for customers. Transport by rail or air is readily available and so are most of the commodities which which held back building for so long—lumber, bricks and cement. Aluminium is still scarce; so are copper and tin. But most other raw materials, scare not so long ago, are becoming more and more easily obtainable. All these are the outward symbols of what appears to be a turning-point in post-war United States economy. Whether the trend will continue to favour the consumer remains to be seen. Certainly prices have to go down a long way before they can meet most American resources. But even to-day, -the United States is probably the only place in the world where one can buy everything one wants —as long as the bank balance holds up.