The Grey River Argus THURSDAY, December 5th, 1940 A NEUTRAL ESTIMATE

Grey River Argus, 5 December 1940, Page 6

The Grey River Argus THURSDAY, December 5th, 1940 A NEUTRAL ESTIMATE

The average individual is almost, entirely at a loss in estimating the course of the war. There are innumerable factors to consider, and such a oue as the German blockade of Britain ought not to be isolated in studying the present situation. It is to be collated not only with the third phase of the air “blitz,” but also with the situation generally, or more particularly in the Middle East. That the enemy again makes exaggerated claims for his blockade is a, reminder of his reliance as much on terrorism as upon the material effect, whereas his estimates in these respects differ very significantly. The German is extremely accurate in the computation of strength, gains and losses in territory, men, ships, aircraft and other material. He also finds it well nigh impossible to believe that other peoples should rate these things differently, or should reckon that the spirit of a nation is the fundamental factor in war. Yet in the comparisons now being made between recent British sea losses and those in 1917, which show themselves good reason for confidence, there must apart from the material destruction be a reflection that the U-boats in 1917 were unable in the long run to prevail. The reason was that there w as a determination that they should not. Probably the air offensive now favours the U-boats, so that other countervailing factors must be greater than ever, and we have just received the assurance of the United Slates official military observer, General Chaney, on his return from Britain, that the enemy air offensive has already failed in two phases. In the third phase, the issue remains undecided, but whatever faith the enemy may still repose in mere material destruction, the determination in Britain is stronger than ever that it also shall end in failure. In that case, the U-boat blockade is doomed likewise to failure. Sight should not be lost of one fact which is still as salient as it has been all along. The enemy may have frequently and ever gradually to change his tactics, but his strategy remains unaltered. It is best denoted by his own term,

“blitz.” He is still fighting against time. There is good reason. His ally has found time most adverse indeed, although he claims that he only wants more of it. Indeed, it is the whole Mediterranean situation —not to go, as it is said, east -of Suez—which illustrates at this admittedly critical moment the necessity for the ordinary individual to strive always for a sense of proportion. All the latest indications of a character to be trusted —the neutral attitude—are favourable for Britain. The Balkan countries which only a month or two ago seem'ed likely prey for the enemy are to-day asserting neutrality with greater emphasis than before. The enemy is manifestly hesitating and in something of a quandary about the situation throughout the Middle East, whereas to that quarter the British are looking with growing confidence. Probably General Chaney’s estimate is based mainly upon the fact that Britain’s actual means of warfare, apart meantime from shipping, are both increasing and are free from the wastage which the enemy incurs. There is inevitably a, limit to any Power’s resources, and it is guageable most accurately by the degree in which another Power obliges those resources to be used up. The capacity of Britain, with American and Dominion backing in men, armaments and other sinews of war, to exhaust enemy resources is for practical purposes illimitable. The one and only chance to negative that capacity is a hasty interruption in supplies such as the blockade and the blitz alike are aimed at. The will to w.in is the quality of which the enemy began in the delusion that he had almost the monopoly. He based that notion upon his military preparation. He should since have seen that such a determination may exist side by side with much less preparation than his own. He has, however, made probably a bungle in prejudging the attitude of the United States, and in any case must be in a_.quandarv all the time about it. It is less in doubt for other people than ever it was. It is a deteimination that the enemy shall not win. Seeing, therefore, all the adverse factors which Britain so- fat has overcome triumphantly _ in this war, there is nothing visible in the present phase which should damp the confidence of her people. As the American expert adds, the only danger is over-confidence.