A BACK WASH.

Grey River Argus, 11 January 1928, Page 8

A BACK WASH.

“Coates Wave?’ ELECTION YEAR. Although January is generally regarded as the “off season” as far as politics arc concerned, a certain amount of quiet preparation is now being made for the general election which w’ill take place in November or December next.

At the last election, in 1925, the Coates Government had a sweeping victory, gaining sixteen seats and losing none. Since then, however, the Government has lost a considerable amount of ground, and it will have a hard fight to maintain a majority in the House. Some people think that there is a possibility of Labour securing the reins of Government, but tno Labour Party has now only fourteen seats in a. House of eighty members, and it appears hardly likely that it could win forty seats at the next election. The Liberal and National forces lest heavily at the last election, and it is believed that they will make substantial progress at the expense of the Reform Party this year. Will Mr Coates Retire? One keen observer of the trend of political events expressed the opinion to-day that Mr Coates may reture from the leadership of the Reform Party this year, and be succeeded by Mr Downie Stewart. He remarked that the differences that have arisen in the ranks of the Reform Party concerning the licensing issue are so acute that Mr Coates may be forced to retire from the leadership. He calculated that Labour would win about twentyfive seats at the next election, and that the Liberals would emerge with about twenty seats. If this prediction is fulfilled the Reform Party will find itself in a minority, and the interesting question will then arise as to whether the Liberals will form a coalition with the Reform Party or whether they will assist to give Labour a trial in office. The formation a few months ago of the new party, know as the United Political Party Organisation, had the effect of stimulating interest in the political situation, but latterly very little has been heard, of this organisation. It is probable, however, that the new party will make its influence felt at the next election by giving its backing to Country Party and Liberal candidates.

The greatest changes in the Parliamentary representation are expected in the North Island, where dissatisfaction with the administration of the Reform Government is said to be very strong. The by-election at Raglan indicated that the Government stocks had fallen heavily in the dairying districts and it is not unlikely that many other seats similar in character to Raglan, will be lost to Reform this year. In the cities and large towns Labour expects to make fairly substantial gains, and this party also may profit as a result of triangular contests in many electorates. A prominent member of the party, in discussing the position, said that there would be Labour candidates for every seat for which sufficient money for campaign purposes was available, but candidates would not be run merely for the sake of building up the aggregate Labour vote in the Dominion. As far as Canterbury is concerned, it seems probable that Labour will not contest such electorates as Hurunui and Temuka. A determined effort will be made to win Kaiapoi, Christchurch North and Riccarton. The alteration of the electoral boundaries last year has improved Labour’s prospects of winning Kaiapoi, even though it is recognised that the Hon D. Buddo is a hard man to beat. Riccarton, on the other hand, has becoihe a harder proposition for Labour, on account of the industrial area of Hornby-Islington having been transferred to Kaiapoi.

Probably the Mayor of Christchurch, ' the Rev. J. K. Archer or Mrs E. R. M ’Combs, wife of Mr J. M’Combs, M.P., will be the Labour candidate for I Christchurch North. Mr Archer has so far not indicated whether he desires to be a candidate or not. If he is wiling to stand he will most likely secure ' the selection, although there are many Labour supporters in Christchurch who consider Mrs M’Combs would have an ; excellent chance of winning the seat. For Kaiapoi, Mr G. Morgan Williams who has contested the seat on two occasions, or Mr H. C. Revell, Mayor of Kaiapoi, are spoken of as likely to carry the Labour banner. If Mr Williams desires to stand, Mr Revell may not be a candidate for the selection. Mr J. M’Combs and Mr M. E. Lyons will almost certainly have a straight out contest for the Lyttelton seat again, but in the other electorates it is too early yet to say what is likely to happen. In some quarters, however, it is thought that Mr T. D. Burnett, member for Temuka, may retire, and that the Hon W. Nosworthy will contest that seat in the Reform interest. Mr David Jones will be given a hard run for, the Mid-Canterbury seat. Labour may decide not to contest this seat in order that a Liberal candidate may have a better chance of displacing Mr Jones. In 1925 the “Coates wave” carried many of the Reform candidates to victory; this year the “back wash” may prove too strong for them.

Licensig Issue. STILL UNCERTAIN. WELLINGTON, January 9. Whether the licensing question is reopened by the calling of a special caucus of the Reform Party in the Parliamentary recess, as the Prime Minister litas declared it may be necessary to do, the subject is sure to be warmly debated again next session if the Bill is introduced as it left the House last session. In the • efforts are understood to be in train with a view to securing the modification of the attitude of those members of the House who have fought so strongly for the prohibition cause. Prominent men in the prohibition movement in Auckland and in Wellington are said to be making endeavours

to influence the prohibition supporters especially the majority in the ranks of the Reform Party, so that a middle course may be steered, and an agreement reached which will satisfy both sides.

It is not clear how far negotiations have proceeded, but as the dominating prohibition faction in the Reform Party is pledged to the hilt to the New Zealand Alliance, those members could not change their attitude unless they broke their pledge. A change in the policy of the Alliance, for the present, at any rate, seems a remote possibility. When inquiries were made of the New Zealand Alliance to-day if there was any ground for the rumours that a compromise had been reached on the Licensing Amendment Bill, the reply of Mr J. M. Murray, the secretary, was distinctly in the negative. He said that, if any change in the attitude of the Alliance had been decided upon, it would have been announced immediately to the public, for the policy of the Alliance was to place its cards on the table. The Alliance, he declared emphatically, “stood pat” upon the platform it had fought for last session, a fundamental plank of which was the bare majority issue, and there could be no change in that policy until the annual conference of the Alliance in May or thereabouts. It was not a matter of expediency, said Mr Murray. The Alliance was standing for a principle, and it intended to stand solidly where it was until it gained its objective—National Prohibition.

Mr Murray said that, as the policy had been determined by the annual conference, the Alliance could not be influenced by negotiations which might be set afoot by members of Parliament or others who had the cause of Prohibition at heart and wished to see some modification of the present policy brought about.

If the Reform members of Parliament who have made pledges to the Alliance adhere as strongly to their commitments as they did last session, there appears to be as little likelihood of their being influenced towards a compromise as there is of persuading the Alliance to change its policy, so that the position is still one of stalemate.

On the other hand, there may be some members who are not bound absolutely to the Alliance, and with whom a reasonable compromise may be effected. As far as can be gathered, however, no definite progress has been made in that direction.

No direct suggestions have yet been made by the Prime Minister for the caucus which he said it might be necessary to call for the purpose of discussing the matter further, and local Reformers declare that they have not heard any thing further than Mr Coates’s intimation that such a meeting might be necessary. The opinion is held by some that it would be useless to call a special meeting df the caucus in the recess in order to discuss a subject such as the licensnig issue, for it would have no result. As Mr Coates remarked when he made his reply to the last Prohibition wing deputation, “It is • a time for qulrn thinking. ’ ’